Sara Aniyar

Resilience in natural and socioeconomic systems

We, as a society, find ourselves confronted with a spectrum of potentially catastrophic and irreversible environmental problems, for which conventional approaches will not suffice in providing solutions. These problems are characterized, above all, by their unpredictability. This means that surprise is to be expected, and that sudden qualitative shifts in dynamics present serious problems for management. In general, it is difficult to detect strong signals of change early enough to motivate effective solutions, or even to develop scientific consensus on a time scale rapid enough to allow effective solution. Furthermore, such signals, even when detected, are likely to be displaced in space or sector from the source, so that the motivation for action is small. Conventional market mechanisms thus will be inadequate to address these challenges.

Coping With Uncertainty: A Call for a New Science-Policy Forum

Abstract The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes “proof” of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.

Accounting for ecosystem services as a way to understand the requirements for sustainable development

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment documented the importance of ecosystem services. It is therefore important that these services are included in our economic accounts (Standard National Accounts), as long as we believe that these accounts should tell us something about our wellbeing. This requires measures of the ecosystem assets and their accounting prices. This article discusses how the concept of inclusive wealth can be exploited for creating such accounts.

Quick Fixes for the Environment: Part of the Solution or Part of the Problem?

All such problems require immediate action to minimize suffering but are often aggravated by the gradual effects of previous shortsighted policies. These problems combine complex ecological mechanisms with difficult sociopolitical dilemmas. They are characterized by periodic, unpredictable events, creating a difficult choice between short-run responses that address symptoms—“quick fixes”—and more fundamental changes in our economy and lifestyles that remove or reduce the long-run drivers of the problems.

Accounting for the Value of Ecosystem Assets and Their Services

Almost all decisions made by agents (individuals, households, companies, associations, governments, etc.) are preceded by some comparisons of the expected gains from making the decision versus the costs of making the same decision. These comparisons may be completely informal, involving only some rough thoughts on the consequences of the decision or may use an elaborate decision theoretical model (Raiffa H. Decision analysis. Introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty. Random House, New York, 1968). Most decisions made by a household do not need any elaborate theoretical analysis. They are mainly made on the basis of experience. But when a household is going to make a major investment, buying a house, for example, they will try to make a rational choice, given the information they have accessible. Based on this information, they will make a valuation of the consequences, in order to see which side will dominate – buying the house now or wait for another opportunity. In this example, the household will probably consult experts that can translate the consequences of buying the house for the household into something concrete, such as the net income of the household. In this case the household is doing a valuation. Similarly, when a society is going to make a decision on say the construction of a new highway, the society should know how this new highway affects the citizens (e.g. higher taxes, shorter transport time, more air pollution and deforestation where the highway is going to be built) before making a decision. In the end, all these factors and many, many more have to be compared in some way or another so that a decision can be made.

Ecological functions and economic value of the Neotropic Cormorant (Phalacrocorax brasilianus) in Los Olivitos Estuary, Venezuela

We present the ecological functions of cormorants and estimate the economic value of these functions to artisanal fishermen, as a valuation exercise for Neotropic Cormorants at Los Olivitos Estuary, Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela. Ecological functions were based on estimating the abundance, distribution and diet of cormorants; economic values were attached to a selection of goods, services and attributes. Based on available information, we selected four ecological–economic functions of cormorants: harvesting for food; contributors to fish diversity; indicators of fish schools; and contributors to fish biomass, due to guano production. Cormorants consumed nine commercial fish species. Mean consumption was 225 g/ind/day. All ecological–economic functions were positive except for the role as contributors to fish biomass. Total value of the cormorant population to fishermen was

Askö 1998: The Value of Nature and the Nature of Value

5,429,703/year. Unlike many studies, our results show that Neotropic Cormorants have a negligible impact on artisanal fisheries. We emphasize the importance of these results for management policies.

Estimating the Value of Oil Capital in a Small Open Economy: The Venezuela's Example

The worlds ecosystems are capital assets. If properly managed, they yield a flow of vital services, including the production of goods (such as seafood and timber), life support processes (such as pollination and water purification), and life-fulfilling conditions (such as beauty and serenity). Moreover, ecosystems have value in terms of the conservation of options (such as genetic diversity for future use) (1). Unfortunately, relative to other forms of capital, ecosystems are poorly understood, scarcely monitored, and (in many cases) undergoing rapid degradation and depletion. Often the importance of ecosystem services is widely appreciated only upon their loss.

The Value of Nature and the Nature of Value

The paper focuses in the calculation of the oil capital value in a small open economy depending on oil rents. The Venezuelan case is used as an example. In valuing the oil capital, two issues are recalled and discussed: how should the exploration costs and the capital gains be treated? It is shown that the estimations vary significantly depending on which set of assumptions are made about the way to account for them and the assumptions made about how the economy functions. It is argued that during the studied period the value of the Venezuelan stock of oil capital has increased, and it has done so faster than the population.