Sara Balestri

Blood Diamonds, Dirty Gold and Spatial Spill-overs Measuring Conflict Dynamics in West Africa

Abstract Although conflict incidence is likely to be characterized by spatial dependence, the scientific literature on conflicts often neglects the issue thus, implicitly, assuming independence among observations. We argue that such assumption could lead to biased and inconsistent results and we provide an exemplary application to the case of the Mano River Region (MRR) in West Africa. Once we detected the existence of spatial dependence within the distribution of conflict incidence, we introduce spatial econometrics techniques in order to explore diffusion paths of violence within the region. We firstly project on a spatially disaggregated map, built as a regular grid, the conflict occurrence and several georeferenced determinants of civil conflicts. Then, we model spatial dependence through the introduction of spatial autoregressive terms on both dependent and independent variables (SAR and SD Models). Across several models, civil conflict is found steadily clustered in space with significant spill-over effects on contiguous locations. Among other determinants, natural resources – namely diamonds and gold – are confirmed as relevant drivers of conflict diffusion and show neighbouring effects since their location and proximity may affect conflict dynamics.

Food security and democracy: do inclusive institutions matter?

ABSTRACT Food security and inclusive institutions are increasingly acknowledged as fundamental dimensions of development, given their role in promoting long-run economic growth and stability. We explore the nexus between achievements in democratisation and food security in low- and middle-income countries, through an analysis of a panel of 106 countries observed from 1990 to 2012. We find that democratisation processes are associated with improved food security, and that the former systematically precedes the latter, shaping a temporal dependence path. We argue that the inclusiveness of democratic institutions is important in explaining this relationship.

Land-Use Change and Communal Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract This paper addresses the correlation between land-use changes and communal conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, by articulating the analysis on a 0.5° × 0.5° regular grid, we estimate the probability of a communal conflict event at time t in any given cell i as a function of a set of variables for land-use variations, a spatial and a temporal lag of the dependent variable, a series of climate attributes and time-invariant geo-physical attributes (all measured at cell level), and a set of institutional attributes (measured at country level). The results show that a positive variation in land-use for agricultural and urban purposes significantly increases both the probability and the number of communal conflicts. On the contrary, the impact of increasing pasture land is not so clear, since results supporting the evidence of a negative relation between pasture use and communal conflicts risk are not robust to different model specifications.

Data for: Trust behind bars: a longitudinal study of inmates’ prosocial preferences

The paper presents the results of a Longitudinal Lab-in-the-Field Experiment implemented between September 2015 and July 2016 in two State Prisons in California (USA). A subset of eligible inmates willing to undertake GRIP (Guiding Rage Into Power), an offender accountability program, were randomly assigned to it. The paper tests whether the participation to this program (used as a treatment in the experiments), based on building strong relationships and mutual help, affects prosocial preferences of participants, with specific reference to trust. The results of a Difference-in-Differences (DID) estimation procedure show that trust significantly increased in GRIP participants compared to the control group. This result is robust to alternative estimation techniques and to the inclusion of an endogenous behavioral measure of altruism.

Gold and civil conflict intensity: evidence from a spatially disaggregated analysis

Abstract This research is aimed at investigating whether the presence of available extractive resources, in particular gold, interacts with civil conflict intensity, accounting for sub-country level data through the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. By a spatially disaggregated and specific resource analysis, I found that gold, gemstones and hydrocarbons productions within the conflict areas tend to increase conflict intensity. The analysis is carried out by applying a Zero-Truncated Negative Binomial model. Data for gold resource are extracted from an original dataset - GOLDATA - which provides a comprehensive list of gold deposits throughout the world completed of geographic coordinates, temporal information and characteristics. The overall finding is that the presence of exploitable gold resource tends to increase conflict intensity and that resources’ lootability and accessibility in wartime can largely determine to what extent revenues can be appropriated and misused during conflict events.