Sara C. Hotchkiss

Climate Cycles, Geomorphological Change, and the Interpretation of Soil and Ecosystem Development

We evaluated changes in temperature and precipitation associated with climate change, subsidence, and erosion on a chronosequence of sites across Hawaii. The sites range in age from 0.3 to 4100 ky, and the current temperature and precipitation are similar at all sites. Interpretations of fossil pollen records suggest that cooler, dryer conditions prevailed in windward Hawaii during the last glacial period. If the previous glacial periods were similar, the 20-, 150-, and 1400-ky-old sites would have spent 60% or more of their development under relatively cool and dry conditions, whereas the 0.3- and 2.1-ky-old sites have experienced only the warmer, wetter climate of the present interglacial. Subsidence and erosion have also affected the temperature and precipitation of these sites over time; in the past, some of them have been in the dry air above the trade wind inversion or in the lee of larger mountains. Combining these components of change, we estimate that the average temperature over the history of Pleistocene-aged sites (20, 150, and 1400 ky) was up to 2.2°C cooler and that the average precipitation was only about 50% of current values. Under current conditions, it would take only 230 ky for as much water to leach through the 1400-ky-old site as we calculate has leached over 1400 ky. Incorporating more reasonable assumptions about environmental history has the potential to allow more powerful interpretations of chronosequence data and thereby improve the predictive potential of models of soil and ecosystem development.

Landscape-level variation in forest structure and biogeochemistry across a substrate age gradient in Hawaii

We compared forest canopy heights and nitrogen concentrations in long-term research sites and in 2 x 2 km landscapes surrounding these sites along a substrate age gradient in the Hawaiian Islands. Both remote airborne and ground-based measurements were used to characterize processes that control landscape-level variation in canopy properties. We integrated a waveform light detection and ranging (LiDAR) system, a high-resolution imaging spectrometer, and a global positioning system/inertial measurement unit to provide highly resolved images of ground topography, canopy heights, and canopy nitrogen concentrations (1) within a circle 50 m in radius focused on a long-term study site in the center of each landscape; (2) for the entire 2 x 2 km landscape regardless of land cover; and (3) after stratification, for our target cover class, native-dominated vegetation on constructional geomorphic surfaces throughout each landscape. Remote measurements at all scales yielded the same overall patterns as did ground-based measurements in the long-term sites. The two younger landscapes supported taller trees than did older landscapes, while the two intermediate-aged landscapes had higher canopy nitrogen (N) concentrations than did either young or old landscapes. However, aircraft-based analyses detected substantial variability in canopy characteristics on the landscape level, even within the target cover class. Canopy heights were more heterogeneous on the older landscapes, with coefficients of variation increasing from 23-41% to 69-78% with increasing substrate age. This increasing heterogeneity was associated with a larger patch size of canopy turnover and with dominance of most secondary successional stands by the mat-forming fern Dicranopteris linearis in the older landscapes.

Interpretation of charcoal morphotypes in sediments from Ferry Lake, Wisconsin, USA: Do different plant fuel sources produce distinctive charcoal morphotypes?

We describe five common charcoal morphotypes observed in late-Holocene lake sediments from northern Wisconsin and compare them with charcoal produced by burning modern plant material. Our experiments show that grass cuticle, conifer wood and leaves of some broadleaved taxa all produce recognizable charcoal types that are preserved in sediments. We use the identification of charcoal morphotypes to enhance our interpretation of a previously published charcoal record from Ferry Lake, Wisconsin. The occurrence of the different charcoal morphotypes changed as the vegetation and fire regimes changed over the past 2300 yr. Charred grass cuticle was more common before 1300 cal. yr BP when small charcoal peaks were frequent and the pollen assemblage suggests that an open oak savanna surrounded the lake. Charcoal with bordered pits produced from burned conifer wood was more common after 1300 cal. yr BP, when red/jack pine pollen increased and the frequency of charcoal peaks decreased, suggesting a switch from a surface fire regime to one with less frequent crown fires. Our results suggest that stratigraphic changes in the occurrence of charcoal morphotypes can improve our understanding of past vegetation and fire regimes.

The response of a jack pine forest to late-Holocene climate variability in northwestern Wisconsin

Terrestrial plant communities have the potential to respond to climate change rapidly, if dominant species are killed by a series of extreme events, or slowly, if the cumulative effects of shorter-term climate fluctuations result in long-term compositional change. We used pollen and charcoal records from a lake and a testate amoebae-derived history of water-table depth in a nearby peatland to assess the response of the jack pine-dominated forests of northwestern Wisconsin to the climate variability of the last ~2000 years. The hydrology record and the charcoal record indicate that the climate near Warner Lake over the last ~2000 years was characterized by multidecadal variation in moisture availability with no apparent multicentennial-long trends in moisture balance or fire frequency. However, the pollen record suggests that there were multicentennial-scale changes in the vegetation composition around Warner Lake. Direct comparison of the three proxy records is challenging, because of their differing temporal resolutions and the complexity of potential ecological responses to climate variability. Therefore, we developed an interpretive model to compare multiple simulated proxies under two scenarios of environmental variability in order to determine under what conditions apparently contradictory records are likely to be found. The interpretive model reveals that a record of multicentennial-long change in vegetation is possible if multidecadal climate variability interacts with ecological processes influencing the direction and magnitude of succession. Compositional changes in the Warner Lake pollen record could reflect long-term variation in temperature, seasonality or other climate factors independent of moisture balance; however it is also possible that multidecadal moisture variability interacted with ecological processes affecting recruitment and mortality of species following fires of varying size and severity. Decadal-scale climatic variability can lead to altered successional pathways and to changes in forest composition that last for centuries.

Moisture status during a strong El Niño explains a tropical montane cloud forest’s upper limit

Growing evidence suggests short-duration climate events may drive community structure and composition more directly than long-term climate means, particularly at ecotones where taxa are close to their physiological limits. Here we use an empirical habitat model to evaluate the role of microclimate during a strong El Niño in structuring a tropical montane cloud forest’s upper limit and composition in Hawai‘i. We interpolate climate surfaces, derived from a high-density network of climate stations, to permanent vegetation plots. Climatic predictor variables include (1) total rainfall, (2) mean relative humidity, and (3) mean temperature representing non-El Niño periods and a strong El Niño drought. Habitat models explained species composition within the cloud forest with non-El Niño rainfall; however, the ecotone at the cloud forest’s upper limit was modeled with relative humidity during a strong El Niño drought and secondarily with non-El Niño rainfall. This forest ecotone may be particularly responsive to strong, short-duration climate variability because taxa here, particularly the isohydric dominant Metrosideros polymorpha, are near their physiological limits. Overall, this study demonstrates moisture’s overarching influence on a tropical montane ecosystem, and suggests that short-term climate events affecting moisture status are particularly relevant at tropical ecotones. This study further suggests that predicting the consequences of climate change here, and perhaps in other tropical montane settings, will rely on the skill and certainty around future climate models of regional rainfall, relative humidity, and El Niño.

High genetic diversity in a remote island population system: sans sex

It has been proposed that long-distance dispersal of mosses to the Hawaiian Islands rarely occurs and that the Hawaiian population of the allopolyploid peat moss Sphagnum palustre probably resulted from a single dispersal event. Here, we used microsatellites to investigate whether the Hawaiian population of the dioicous S. palustre had a single founder and to compare its genetic diversity to that found in populations of S. palustre in other regions. The genetic diversity of the Hawaiian population is comparable to that of larger population systems. Several lines of evidence, including a lack of sporophytes and an apparently restricted natural distribution, suggest that sexual reproduction is absent in the Hawaiian plants. In addition, all samples of Hawaiian S. palustre share a genetic trait rare in other populations. Time to most recent ancestor (TMRCA) analysis indicates that the Hawaiian population was probably founded 49-51 kyr ago. It appears that all Hawaiian plants of S. palustre descend from a single founder via vegetative propagation. The long-term viability of this clonal population coupled with the development of significant genetic diversity suggests that vegetative propagation in a moss does not necessarily preclude evolutionary success in the long term.

Drought as a Trigger for Rapid State Shifts in Kettle Ecosystems: Implications for Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change

Global climate change has raised important questions about ecosystem resilience and the likelihood of unexpected and potentially irreversible ecosystem state shifts. Conceptual models provide a framework for generating hypotheses about long-term ecosystem processes and their responses to external perturbations. In this article, we review the classic model of autogenic peatland encroachment into closed-basin kettle lakes (terrestrialization) as well as studies that document patterns of terrestrialization that are inconsistent with this hypothesis. We then present a new conceptual model of episodic, drought-triggered terrestrialization, which is consistent with existing data and provides a mechanism by which climatic variability could cause non-linear patterns of peatland development in these ecosystems. Next, we review data from comparative studies of kettle lakes along a peatland-development gradient to explore potential ecological and biogeochemical consequences of non-linear patterns of terrestrialization. Finally, we identify research approaches that could be used to test conceptual models of terrestrialization, investigate the ecological implications of non-linear patterns of peatland development, and improve our ability to predict responses of kettle systems to climate changes of the coming decades and century.

Top-Down Analysis of Forest Structure and Biogeochemistry across Hawaiian Landscapes

Abstract: Technical and analytical improvements in aircraft-based remote sensing allow synoptic measurements of structural and chemical properties of vegetation across whole landscapes. We used the Carnegie Airborne Observatory, which includes waveform light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and high-fidelity imaging spectroscopy, to evaluate the landscapes surrounding four well-studied sites on a substrate age gradient across the Hawaiian Islands. The airborne measurements yielded variations in ground topography, canopy height, and canopy nitrogen (N) concentration more accurately than they could have been obtained by any reasonable intensity of ground-based sampling. We detected spatial variation in ecosystem properties associated with the properties of different species, including differences in canopy N concentrations associated with the native species Metrosideros polymorpha and Acacia koa, and differences brought about by invasions of the biological N fixer Morella faya. Structural and chemical differences associated with exotic tree plantations and with dominance of forest patches by the native mat-forming fern Dicranopteris linearis also could be analyzed straightforwardly. This approach provides a powerful tool for ecologists seeking to expand from plot-based measurements to landscape-level analyses.

Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Future predictions from paleoecology Terrestrial ecosystems will be transformed by current anthropogenic change, but the extent of this change remains a challenge to predict. Nolan et al. looked at documented vegetational and climatic changes at almost 600 sites worldwide since the last glacial maximum 21,000 years ago. From this, they determined vegetation responses to temperature changes of 4° to 7°C. They went on to estimate the extent of ecosystem changes under current similar (albeit more rapid) scenarios of warming. Without substantial mitigation efforts, terrestrial ecosystems are at risk of major transformation in composition and structure. Science, this issue p. 920 Global vegetation change since the Last Glacial Maximum is used as an indicator of transformation under warming scenarios. Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

Primary Succession on a Hawaiian Dryland Chronosequence

We used measurements from airborne imaging spectroscopy and LiDAR to quantify the biophysical structure and composition of vegetation on a dryland substrate age gradient in Hawaii. Both vertical stature and species composition changed during primary succession, and reveal a progressive increase in vertical stature on younger substrates followed by a collapse on Pleistocene-aged flows. Tall-stature Metrosideros polymorpha woodlands dominated on the youngest substrates (hundreds of years), and were replaced by the tall-stature endemic tree species Myoporum sandwicense and Sophora chrysophylla on intermediate-aged flows (thousands of years). The oldest substrates (tens of thousands of years) were dominated by the short-stature native shrub Dodonaea viscosa and endemic grass Eragrostis atropioides. We excavated 18 macroscopic charcoal fragments from Pleistocene-aged substrates. Mean radiocarbon age was 2,002 years and ranged from < 200 to 7,730. Genus identities from four fragments indicate that Osteomeles spp. or M. polymorpha once occupied the Pleistocene-aged substrates, but neither of these species is found there today. These findings indicate the existence of fires before humans are known to have occupied the Hawaiian archipelago, and demonstrate that a collapse in vertical stature is prevalent on the oldest substrates. This work contributes to our understanding of prehistoric fires in shaping the trajectory of primary succession in Hawaiian drylands.