Sara Golas

Healthcare utilization in older patients using personal emergency response systems: an analysis of electronic health records and medical alert data

BackgroundPersonal Emergency Response Systems (PERS) are traditionally used as fall alert systems for older adults, a population that contributes an overwhelming proportion of healthcare costs in the United States. Previous studies focused mainly on qualitative evaluations of PERS without a longitudinal quantitative evaluation of healthcare utilization in users. To address this gap and better understand the needs of older patients on PERS, we analyzed longitudinal healthcare utilization trends in patients using PERS through the home care management service of a large healthcare organization.MethodsRetrospective, longitudinal analyses of healthcare and PERS utilization records of older patients over a 5-years period from 2011–2015. The primary outcome was to characterize the healthcare utilization of PERS patients. This outcome was assessed by 30-, 90-, and 180-day readmission rates, frequency of principal admitting diagnoses, and prevalence of conditions leading to potentially avoidable admissions based on Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services classification criteria.ResultsThe overall 30-day readmission rate was 14.2%, 90-days readmission rate was 34.4%, and 180-days readmission rate was 42.2%. While 30-day readmission rates did not increase significantly (p = 0.16) over the study period, 90-days (p = 0.03) and 180-days (p = 0.04) readmission rates did increase significantly. The top 5 most frequent principal diagnoses for inpatient admissions included congestive heart failure (5.7%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (4.6%), dysrhythmias (4.3%), septicemia (4.1%), and pneumonia (4.1%). Additionally, 21% of all admissions were due to conditions leading to potentially avoidable admissions in either institutional or non-institutional settings (16% in institutional settings only).ConclusionsChronic medical conditions account for the majority of healthcare utilization in older patients using PERS. Results suggest that PERS data combined with electronic medical records data can provide useful insights that can be used to improve health outcomes in older patients.

Evaluating the Impact of a Web-Based Risk Assessment System (CareSage) and Tailored Interventions on Health Care Utilization: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial

Background Soaring health care costs and a rapidly aging population, with multiple comorbidities, necessitates the development of innovative strategies to deliver high-quality, value-based care. Objective The goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of a risk assessment system (CareSage) and targeted interventions on health care utilization. Methods This is a two-arm randomized controlled trial recruiting 370 participants from a pool of high-risk patients receiving care at a home health agency. CareSage is a risk assessment system that utilizes both real-time data collected via a Personal Emergency Response Service and historical patient data collected from the electronic medical records. All patients will first be observed for 3 months (observation period) to allow the CareSage algorithm to calibrate based on patient data. During the next 6 months (intervention period), CareSage will use a predictive algorithm to classify patients in the intervention group as “high” or “low” risk for emergency transport every 30 days. All patients flagged as “high risk” by CareSage will receive nurse triage calls to assess their needs and personalized interventions including patient education, home visits, and tele-monitoring. The primary outcome is the number of 180-day emergency department visits. Secondary outcomes include the number of 90-day emergency department visits, total medical expenses, 180-day mortality rates, time to first readmission, total number of readmissions and avoidable readmissions, 30-, 90-, and 180-day readmission rates, as well as cost of intervention per patient. The two study groups will be compared using the Student t test (two-tailed) for normally distributed and Mann Whitney U test for skewed continuous variables, respectively. The chi-square test will be used for categorical variables. Time to event (readmission) and 180-day mortality between the two study groups will be compared by using the Kaplan-Meier survival plots and the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazard regression will be used to compute hazard ratio and compare outcomes between the two groups. Results We are actively enrolling participants and the study is expected to be completed by end of 2018; results are expected to be published in early 2019. Conclusions Innovative solutions for identifying high-risk patients and personalizing interventions based on individual risk and needs may help facilitate the delivery of value-based care, improve long-term patient health outcomes and decrease health care costs. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03126565; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03126565 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6ymDuAwQA).

Validating a Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict 30-Day Re-Admissions in Patients With Heart Failure: Protocol for a Prospective Cohort Study

Background Big data solutions, particularly machine learning predictive algorithms, have demonstrated the ability to unlock value from data in real time in many settings outside of health care. Rapid growth in electronic medical record adoption and the shift from a volume-based to a value-based reimbursement structure in the US health care system has spurred investments in machine learning solutions. Machine learning methods can be used to build flexible, customized, and automated predictive models to optimize resource allocation and improve the efficiency and quality of health care. However, these models are prone to the problems of overfitting, confounding, and decay in predictive performance over time. It is, therefore, necessary to evaluate machine learning–based predictive models in an independent dataset before they can be adopted in the clinical practice. In this paper, we describe the protocol for independent, prospective validation of a machine learning–based model trained to predict the risk of 30-day re-admission in patients with heart failure. Objective This study aims to prospectively validate a machine learning–based predictive model for inpatient admissions in patients with heart failure by comparing its predictions of risk for 30-day re-admissions against outcomes observed prospectively in an independent patient cohort. Methods All adult patients with heart failure who are discharged alive from an inpatient admission will be prospectively monitored for 30-day re-admissions through reports generated by the electronic medical record system. Of these, patients who are part of the training dataset will be excluded to avoid information leakage to the algorithm. An expected sample size of 1228 index admissions will be required to observe a minimum of 100 30-day re-admission events. Deidentified structured and unstructured data will be fed to the algorithm, and its prediction will be recorded. The overall model performance will be assessed using the concordance statistic. Furthermore, multiple discrimination thresholds for screening high-risk patients will be evaluated according to the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and estimated cost savings to our health care system. Results The project received funding in April 2017 and data collection began in June 2017. Enrollment was completed in July 2017. Data analysis is currently underway, and the first results are expected to be submitted for publication in October 2018. Conclusions To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the first studies to prospectively evaluate a predictive machine learning algorithm in a real-world setting. Findings from this study will help to measure the robustness of predictions made by machine learning algorithms and set a realistic benchmark for expectations of gains that can be made through its application to health care. Registered Report Identifier RR1-10.2196/9466

Health Care Cost Analyses for Exploring Cost Savings Opportunities in Older Patients: Longitudinal Retrospective Study

Background Half of Medicare reimbursement goes toward caring for the top 5% of the most expensive patients. However, little is known about these patients prior to reaching the top or how their costs change annually. To address these gaps, we analyzed patient flow and associated health care cost trends over 5 years. Objective To evaluate the cost of health care utilization in older patients by analyzing changes in their long-term expenditures. Methods This was a retrospective, longitudinal, multicenter study to evaluate health care costs of 2643 older patients from 2011 to 2015. All patients had at least one episode of home health care during the study period and used a personal emergency response service (PERS) at home for any length of time during the observation period. We segmented all patients into top (5%), middle (6%-50%), and bottom (51%-100%) segments by their annual expenditures and built cost pyramids based thereon. The longitudinal health care expenditure trends of the complete study population and each segment were assessed by linear regression models. Patient flows throughout the segments of the cost acuity pyramids from year to year were modeled by Markov chains. Results Total health care costs of the study population nearly doubled from US

Participant Engagement with a Hyper-Personalized Activity Tracking Smartphone App

17.7M in 2011 to US

A machine learning model to predict the risk of 30-day readmissions in patients with heart failure: a retrospective analysis of electronic medical records data

33.0M in 2015 with an expected annual cost increase of US

Drivers of Epilepsy-related Cost of Care in an Integrated Healthcare System (P6.280)

3.6M (P=.003). This growth was primarily driven by a significantly higher cost increases in the middle segment (US

Maximizing Potentially Avoidable Hospitalizations and Cost Savings Beyond Targeting the Most Costly Patients

2.3M, P=.003). The expected annual cost increases in the top and bottom segments were US

Use of Featforward Mobile Phone App Associated with Decreased Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in Patients with Chronic Conditions

1.2M (P=.008) and US

Prospective Real-World Performance Evaluation of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict 30-Day Readmissions in Patients with Heart Failure Using Electronic Medical Record Data

0.1M (P=.004), respectively. Patient and cost flow analyses showed that 18% of patients moved up the cost acuity pyramid yearly, and their costs increased by 672%. This was in contrast to 22% of patients that moved down with a cost decrease of 86%. The remaining 60% of patients stayed in the same segment from year to year, though their costs also increased by 18%. Conclusions Although many health care organizations target intensive and costly interventions to their most expensive patients, this analysis unveiled potential cost savings opportunities by managing the patients in the lower cost segments that are at risk of moving up the cost acuity pyramid. To achieve this, data analytics integrating longitudinal data from electronic health records and home monitoring devices may help health care organizations optimize resources by enabling clinicians to proactively manage patients in their home or community environments beyond institutional settings and 30- and 60-day telehealth services.