Sara Vicca

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle

The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget.

Human-induced nitrogen–phosphorus imbalances alter natural and managed ecosystems across the globe

The availability of carbon from rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and of nitrogen from various human-induced inputs to ecosystems is continuously increasing; however, these increases are not paralleled by a similar increase in phosphorus inputs. The inexorable change in the stoichiometry of carbon and nitrogen relative to phosphorus has no equivalent in Earths history. Here we report the profound and yet uncertain consequences of the human imprint on the phosphorus cycle and nitrogen:phosphorus stoichiometry for the structure, functioning and diversity of terrestrial and aquatic organisms and ecosystems. A mass balance approach is used to show that limited phosphorus and nitrogen availability are likely to jointly reduce future carbon storage by natural ecosystems during this century. Further, if phosphorus fertilizers cannot be made increasingly accessible, the crop yields projections of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment imply an increase of the nutrient deficit in developing regions.

Do global change experiments overestimate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems

In recent decades, many climate manipulation experiments have investigated biosphere responses to global change. These experiments typically examined effects of elevated atmospheric CO(2), warming or drought (driver variables) on ecosystem processes such as the carbon and water cycle (response variables). Because experiments are inevitably constrained in the number of driver variables tested simultaneously, as well as in time and space, a key question is how results are scaled up to predict net ecosystem responses. In this review, we argue that there might be a general trend for the magnitude of the responses to decline with higher-order interactions, longer time periods and larger spatial scales. This means that on average, both positive and negative global change impacts on the biosphere might be dampened more than previously assumed.

Simple additive effects are rare: a quantitative review of plant biomass and soil process responses to combined manipulations of CO2 and temperature

In recent years, increased awareness of the potential interactions between rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([ CO2 ]) and temperature has illustrated the importance of multifactorial ecosystem manipulation experiments for validating Earth System models. To address the urgent need for increased understanding of responses in multifactorial experiments, this article synthesizes how ecosystem productivity and soil processes respond to combined warming and [ CO2 ] manipulation, and compares it with those obtained in single factor [ CO2 ] and temperature manipulation experiments. Across all combined elevated [ CO2 ] and warming experiments, biomass production and soil respiration were typically enhanced. Responses to the combined treatment were more similar to those in the [ CO2 ]-only treatment than to those in the warming-only treatment. In contrast to warming-only experiments, both the combined and the [ CO2 ]-only treatments elicited larger stimulation of fine root biomass than of aboveground biomass, consistently stimulated soil respiration, and decreased foliar nitrogen (N) concentration. Nonetheless, mineral N availability declined less in the combined treatment than in the [ CO2 ]-only treatment, possibly due to the warming-induced acceleration of decomposition, implying that progressive nitrogen limitation (PNL) may not occur as commonly as anticipated from single factor [ CO2 ] treatment studies. Responses of total plant biomass, especially of aboveground biomass, revealed antagonistic interactions between elevated [ CO2 ] and warming, i.e. the response to the combined treatment was usually less-than-additive. This implies that productivity projections might be overestimated when models are parameterized based on single factor responses. Our results highlight the need for more (and especially more long-term) multifactor manipulation experiments. Because single factor CO2 responses often dominated over warming responses in the combined treatments, our results also suggest that projected responses to future global warming in Earth System models should not be parameterized using single factor warming experiments.

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon–climate feedbacks.

Asymmetric effects of daytime and night-time warming on Northern Hemisphere vegetation

Temperature data over the past five decades show faster warming of the global land surface during the night than during the day. This asymmetric warming is expected to affect carbon assimilation and consumption in plants, because photosynthesis in most plants occurs during daytime and is more sensitive to the maximum daily temperature, Tmax, whereas plant respiration occurs throughout the day and is therefore influenced by both Tmax and the minimum daily temperature, Tmin. Most studies of the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming, however, ignore this asymmetric forcing effect on vegetation growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes. Here we analyse the interannual covariations of the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, an indicator of vegetation greenness) with Tmax and Tmin over the Northern Hemisphere. After removing the correlation between Tmax and Tmin, we find that the partial correlation between Tmax and NDVI is positive in most wet and cool ecosystems over boreal regions, but negative in dry temperate regions. In contrast, the partial correlation between Tmin and NDVI is negative in boreal regions, and exhibits a more complex behaviour in dry temperate regions. We detect similar patterns in terrestrial net CO2 exchange maps obtained from a global atmospheric inversion model. Additional analysis of the long-term atmospheric CO2 concentration record of the station Point Barrow in Alaska suggests that the peak-to-peak amplitude of CO2 increased by 23 ± 11% for a +1 °C anomaly in Tmax from May to September over lands north of 51° N, but decreased by 28 ± 14% for a +1 °C anomaly in Tmin. These lines of evidence suggest that asymmetric diurnal warming, a process that is currently not taken into account in many global carbon cycle models, leads to a divergent response of Northern Hemisphere vegetation growth and carbon sequestration to rising temperatures.

Fertile forests produce biomass more efficiently

Trees with sufficient nutrition are known to allocate carbon preferentially to aboveground plant parts. Our global study of 49 forests revealed an even more fundamental carbon allocation response to nutrient availability: forests with high-nutrient availability use 58 ± 3% (mean ± SE; 17 forests) of their photosynthates for plant biomass production (BP), while forests with low-nutrient availability only convert 42 ± 2% (mean ± SE; 19 forests) of annual photosynthates to biomass. This nutrient effect largely overshadows previously observed differences in carbon allocation patterns among climate zones, forest types and age classes. If forests with low-nutrient availability use 16 ± 4% less of their photosynthates for plant growth, what are these used for? Current knowledge suggests that lower BP per unit photosynthesis in forests with low- versus forests with high-nutrient availability reflects not merely an increase in plant respiration, but likely results from reduced carbon allocation to unaccounted components of net primary production, particularly root symbionts.

Leaf onset in the northern hemisphere triggered by daytime temperature

Recent warming significantly advanced leaf onset in the northern hemisphere. This signal cannot be accurately reproduced by current models parameterized by daily mean temperature (Tmean). Here using in situ observations of leaf unfolding dates (LUDs) in Europe and the United States, we show that the interannual anomalies of LUD during 1982–2011 are triggered by daytime (Tmax) more than by nighttime temperature (Tmin). Furthermore, an increase of 1 °C in Tmax would advance LUD by 4.7 days in Europe and 4.3 days in the United States, more than the conventional temperature sensitivity estimated from Tmean. The triggering role of Tmax, rather than the Tmin or Tmean variable, is also supported by analysis of the large-scale patterns of satellite-derived vegetation green-up in spring in the northern hemisphere (>30°N). Our results suggest a new conceptual framework of leaf onset using daytime temperature to improve the performance of phenology modules in current Earth system models.

Sensitivity of decomposition rates of soil organic matter with respect to simultaneous changes in temperature and moisture

© 2015. The Authors. The sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition to global environmental change is a topic of prominent relevance for the global carbon cycle. Decomposition depends on multiple factors that are being altered simultaneously as a result of global environmental change; therefore, it is important to study the sensitivity of the rates of soil organic matter decomposition with respect to multiple and interacting drivers. In this manuscript, we present an analysis of the potential response of decomposition rates to simultaneous changes in temperature and moisture. To address this problem, we first present a theoretical framework to study the sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition when multiple driving factors change simultaneously. We then apply this framework to models and data at different levels of abstraction: (1) to a mechanistic model that addresses the limitation of enzyme activity by simultaneous effects of temperature and soil water content, the latter controlling substrate supply and oxygen concentration for microbial activity; (2) to different mathematical functions used to represent temperature and moisture effects on decomposition in biogeochemical models. To contrast model predictions at these two levels of organization, we compiled different data sets of observed responses in field and laboratory studies. Then we applied our conceptual framework to: (3) observations of heterotrophic respiration at the ecosystem level; (4) laboratory experiments looking at the response of heterotrophic respiration to independent changes in moisture and temperature; and (5) ecosystem-level experiments manipulating soil temperature and water content simultaneously.

Mycorrhizal association as a primary control of the CO2 fertilization effect

Fungi relieve nitrogen limitation Rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 stimulate plant growth; an effect that could reduce the pace of anthropogenic climate change. But plants also need nitrogen for growth. So far, experimental nitrogen addition has had equivocal effects on the magnitude of CO2 fertilization. Terrer et al. explain that the impact of nitrogen on plant growth depends on the relationship between nitrogen availability and symbioses with mycorrhizal soil fungi. Only plants with ectomycorrhizal fungi associated with their roots can overcome nitrogen limitation. Science, this issue p. 72 Ectomycorrhizal fungi control the carbon dioxide fertilization effects of nitrogen. Plants buffer increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations through enhanced growth, but the question whether nitrogen availability constrains the magnitude of this ecosystem service remains unresolved. Synthesizing experiments from around the world, we show that CO2 fertilization is best explained by a simple interaction between nitrogen availability and mycorrhizal association. Plant species that associate with ectomycorrhizal fungi show a strong biomass increase (30 ± 3%, P < 0.001) in response to elevated CO2 regardless of nitrogen availability, whereas low nitrogen availability limits CO2 fertilization (0 ± 5%, P = 0.946) in plants that associate with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. The incorporation of mycorrhizae in global carbon cycle models is feasible, and crucial if we are to accurately project ecosystem responses and feedbacks to climate change.