Sarah Bowden

Rodent reservoirs of future zoonotic diseases

Significance Forecasting reservoirs of zoonotic disease is a pressing public health priority. We apply machine learning to datasets describing the biological, ecological, and life history traits of rodents, which collectively carry a disproportionate number of zoonotic pathogens. We identify particular rodent species predicted to be novel zoonotic reservoirs and geographic regions from which new emerging pathogens are most likely to arise. We also describe trait profiles—complexes of biological features—that distinguish reservoirs from nonreservoirs. Generally, the most permissive rodent reservoirs display a fast-paced life history strategy, maximizing near-term fitness by having many altricial young that begin reproduction early and reproduce frequently. These findings may constitute an important lead in guiding the search for novel disease reservoirs in the wild. The increasing frequency of zoonotic disease events underscores a need to develop forecasting tools toward a more preemptive approach to outbreak investigation. We apply machine learning to data describing the traits and zoonotic pathogen diversity of the most speciose group of mammals, the rodents, which also comprise a disproportionate number of zoonotic disease reservoirs. Our models predict reservoir status in this group with over 90% accuracy, identifying species with high probabilities of harboring undiscovered zoonotic pathogens based on trait profiles that may serve as rules of thumb to distinguish reservoirs from nonreservoir species. Key predictors of zoonotic reservoirs include biogeographical properties, such as range size, as well as intrinsic host traits associated with lifetime reproductive output. Predicted hotspots of novel rodent reservoir diversity occur in the Middle East and Central Asia and the Midwestern United States.

Regional Differences in the Association Between Land Cover and West Nile Virus Disease Incidence in Humans in the United States

West Nile virus (WNV) is generally considered to be an urban pathogen in the United States, but studies associating land cover and disease incidence, seroprevalence, or infection rate in humans, birds, domesticated and wild mammals, and mosquitoes report varying and sometimes contradictory results at an array of spatial extents. Human infection can provide insight about basic transmission activity; therefore, we analyzed data on the incidence of WNV disease in humans to obtain a comprehensive picture of how human disease and land cover type are associated across the United States. Human WNV disease incidence in Northeastern regions was positively associated with urban land covers, whereas incidence in the Western United States was positively associated with agricultural land covers. We suggest that these regional associations are explained by the geographic distributions of prominent WNV vectors: Culex pipiens complex (including Cx. pipiens and Cx. quinquefasciatus) in the Northeast and Cx. tarsalis in the Western United States.

Spread of white-nose syndrome on a network regulated by geography and climate

Wildlife and plant diseases can reduce biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem services and threaten human health. Emerging pathogens have displayed a variety of spatial spread patterns due to differences in host ecology, including diffusive spread from an epicentre (West Nile virus), jump dispersal on a network (foot-and-mouth disease), or a combination of these (Sudden oak death). White-nose syndrome is a highly pathogenic infectious disease of bats currently spreading across North America. Understanding how bat ecology influences this spread is crucial to management of infected and vulnerable populations. Here we show that white-nose syndrome spread is not diffusive but rather mediated by patchily distributed habitat and large-scale gradients in winter climate. Simulations predict rapid expansion and infection of most counties with caves in the contiguous United States by winter 2105-2106. Our findings show the unique pattern of white-nose syndrome spread corresponds to ecological traits of the host and suggest hypotheses for transmission mechanisms acting at the local scale.

Highly efficient Agrobacterium-mediated transformation of wheat via in planta inoculation.

This chapter details a reproducible method for the transformation of spring wheat using Agrobacterium tumefaciens via the direct inoculation of bacteria into immature seeds in planta as described in patent WO 00/63398 (1). Transformation efficiencies from 1 to 30% have been obtained and average efficiencies of at least 5% are routinely achieved. Regenerated plants are phenotypically normal with 30-50% of transformation events carrying introduced genes at single insertion sites, a higher rate than is typically reported for transgenic plants produced using biolistic transformation methods.

Decelerating Spread of West Nile Virus by Percolation in a Heterogeneous Urban Landscape

Vector-borne diseases are emerging and re-emerging in urban environments throughout the world, presenting an increasing challenge to human health and a major obstacle to development. Currently, more than half of the global population is concentrated in urban environments, which are highly heterogeneous in the extent, degree, and distribution of environmental modifications. Because the prevalence of vector-borne pathogens is so closely coupled to the ecologies of vector and host species, this heterogeneity has the potential to significantly alter the dynamical systems through which pathogens propagate, and also thereby affect the epidemiological patterns of disease at multiple spatial scales. One such pattern is the speed of spread. Whereas standard models hold that pathogens spread as waves with constant or increasing speed, we hypothesized that heterogeneity in urban environments would cause decelerating travelling waves in incipient epidemics. To test this hypothesis, we analysed data on the spread of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City (NYC), the 1999 epicentre of the North American pandemic, during annual epizootics from 2000–2008. These data show evidence of deceleration in all years studied, consistent with our hypothesis. To further explain these patterns, we developed a spatial model for vector-borne disease transmission in a heterogeneous environment. An emergent property of this model is that deceleration occurs only in the vicinity of a critical point. Geostatistical analysis suggests that NYC may be on the edge of this criticality. Together, these analyses provide the first evidence for the endogenous generation of decelerating travelling waves in an emerging infectious disease. Since the reported deceleration results from the heterogeneity of the environment through which the pathogen percolates, our findings suggest that targeting control at key sites could efficiently prevent pathogen spread to remote susceptible areas or even halt epidemics.

Undiscovered Bat Hosts of Filoviruses

Ebola and other filoviruses pose significant public health and conservation threats by causing high mortality in primates, including humans. Preventing future outbreaks of ebolavirus depends on identifying wildlife reservoirs, but extraordinarily high biodiversity of potential hosts in temporally dynamic environments of equatorial Africa contributes to sporadic, unpredictable outbreaks that have hampered efforts to identify wild reservoirs for nearly 40 years. Using a machine learning algorithm, generalized boosted regression, we characterize potential filovirus-positive bat species with estimated 87% accuracy. Our model produces two specific outputs with immediate utility for guiding filovirus surveillance in the wild. First, we report a profile of intrinsic traits that discriminates hosts from non-hosts, providing a biological caricature of a filovirus-positive bat species. This profile emphasizes traits describing adult and neonate body sizes and rates of reproductive fitness, as well as species’ geographic range overlap with regions of high mammalian diversity. Second, we identify several bat species ranked most likely to be filovirus-positive on the basis of intrinsic trait similarity with known filovirus-positive bats. New bat species predicted to be positive for filoviruses are widely distributed outside of equatorial Africa, with a majority of species overlapping in Southeast Asia. Taken together, these results spotlight several potential host species and geographical regions as high-probability targets for future filovirus surveillance.

Yr36 confers partial resistance at temperatures below 18°C to U.K. isolates of Puccinia striiformis.

Wheat yellow (stripe) rust, caused by the obligate biotrophic fungus Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici, is a continual threat to wheat fields worldwide. New isolates with increased virulence have recently emerged driving breeding efforts to incorporate disease resistance genes which confer potentially more durable, albeit partial, resistance. Yr36 is one such locus which was recently cloned (WKS1) and described as a high-temperature adult-plant gene being effective only at temperatures above 25°C. We examined the potential use of Yr36 at temperatures below 25°C. Field experiments in the United Kingdom across 2 years show that lines carrying Yr36 provide slow rusting resistance to the yellow rust pathogen. Juvenile and adult Yr36 isogenic lines showed partial resistance at temperatures below 18°C under control environment conditions in tetraploid and hexaploid genetic backgrounds, but not at seedling stage, when inoculated with U.K. P. striiformis isolates. This partial resistance phenotype was similar to that observed previously at temperatures ≥25°C. Transgenic complementation tests and ethyl methanesulfonate mutants showed that the low-temperature partial resistance was due to the WKS1 gene. This study indicates that Yr36 has the potential to be an effective source of partial resistance in temperate wheat growing regions.

Highly Efficient Agrobacterium‐Mediated Transformation of Potato (Solanum tuberosum) and Production of Transgenic Microtubers

The following method enables the rapid production of transgenic potato plants and microtubers for gene validation and expression, or promoter studies. The method is highly efficient, with reproducible transformation efficiencies of at least 50% to 60% with potato cv. Desiree, and can produce transgenic microtubers within 6 months of initiation of the experiment. Microtubers are produced in the absence of hormones, giving an in vitro gene testing system broadly analogous to the natural state.