Sarah L. Ingham

Mortality in neurofibromatosis 1: in North West England: An assessment of actuarial survival in a region of the UK since 1989

Neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) is a comparatively common autosomal dominant disorder. However, relatively few studies have assessed lifetime risk; and information about the effect of NF1 on mortality remains uncertain. NF1 patients were identified using The North West regional family Genetic Register, which covers the 4.1 million people living in North West England, including the regions of Greater Manchester, Cheshire and Cumbria. Data relating to tumours and malignancies were obtained from The North West Cancer Intelligence Service. Death data for the general North West population were obtained from the Office of National Statistics. We identified 1186 individuals with NF1, of whom 1023 lived within the strict regional boundaries (constituting a region of North West England bound by The Pennines to the east and Irish Sea to the west, but excluding the conurbation of Liverpool (Merseyside) and the Wirral peninsula) and 131 had died. MPNST and glioma were found to be the two most common causes of reduced life expectancy among NF1 patients. In Kaplan–Meier analyses the median survival for NF1 patients was shown to be 71.5 years, with women living ∼7.4 years longer than men. On average both men and women lived ∼8 years less than their counterparts in the general population. Reduction in life expectancy for NF1 patients was found to be much lower (8 years) than the previously estimated 15-year decrease. Limitations relating to the underreporting of NF1 on death certificates were once again highlighted and should be considered in future investigations.

Life expectancy in hereditary cancer predisposing diseases: an observational study.

Background Neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1), neurofibromatosis 2 (NF2), familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), von Hippel-Lindau syndrome (VHL), and Gorlin syndrome (GS) are single gene diseases that predispose to early onset tumours. Few studies have assessed the effect of these diseases on life expectancy. This studys aim was to assess this effect, and to test the hypothesis that genetic registers increase survival. Method NF1, NF2, VHL, FAP, and GS patients were identified through the North West Regional Genetic Register Service and the North West Cancer Intelligence Service. Information on benign and malignant tumours, and deaths were obtained. Kaplan–Meier curves were used to show actuarial survival rates for each disease, compared to the local population, and in patients diagnosed pre/post the regional genetic register. Log rank (Mantel–Cox) tests were used to compare survival between groups. Results Life expectancies were significantly reduced for all diseases investigated compared with the local population (80.0 years) (p=0.05). GS had the longest life expectancy at 73.4 years, followed by NF1 at 71.5 years, NF2 at 69.0 years, FAP at 63.6 years, and VHL at 52.5 years. Patients diagnosed after establishment of the genetic register had an increase in survival compared to those diagnosed pre-1990: NF2 (14.7 years), FAP (13.9 years), VHL (16.3 years), and GS (11.2 years). Conclusion Life expectancy for all five diseases was less than normal, although in recent years this reached the level of the local population in GS. Although there have been improvements in all conditions which may in part be attributable to better targeted care through the genetic register service, more needs to be done to address the very poor life expectancy in VHL.

Nottingham knee osteoarthritis risk prediction models

Objectives (1) To develop risk prediction models for knee osteoarthritis (OA) and (2) to estimate the risk reduction that results from modification of potential risk factors. Method This was a 12-year retrospective cohort study undertaken in the general population in Nottingham, UK. Baseline risk factors were collected by questionnaire. Incident radiographic knee OA was defined by Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) score ≥2. Incident symptomatic knee OA was defined by KL ≥2 plus knee pain. Progression of knee OA was defined by KL ≥1 grade increase from baseline. A logistic regression model was used for prediction. Calibration and discrimination of the models were tested in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) population and Genetics of Osteoarthritis and Lifestyle (GOAL) population. ORs of the models were compared with those obtained from meta-analysis of existing literature. Results From a community sample of 424 people aged over 40, 3 risk prediction models were developed. These included incidence of radiographic knee OA, incidence of symptomatic knee OA and progression of knee OA. All models had good calibration and moderate discrimination power in OAI and GOAL. The ORs lied within the 95% CIs of the published studies. The risk reduction due to modifying obesity at the individual and the population levels were demonstrated. Conclusions Risk prediction of knee OA based on the well established, common modifiable risk factors has been established. The models may be used to predict the risk of knee OA, and risk reduction due to preventing a specific risk factor.

Prevention of breast cancer in the context of a national breast screening programme.

Abstract.  Howell A, Astley S, Warwick J, Stavrinos P, Sahin S, Ingham S, McBurney H, Eckersley B, Harvie M, Wilson M, Beetles U, Warren R, Hufton A, Sergeant J, Newman W, Buchan I, Cuzick J, Evans DG (Genesis Prevention Centre and Nightingale Breast Screening Centre, University Hospital of South Manchester; School of Cancer and Enabling Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester; Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London; School of Community Based Medicine, University of Manchester, Manchester; Genetic Medicine, Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre, University of Manchester and Central Manchester Foundation Trust, Manchester; and Cambridge Breast Unit, Addenbrooke’s Hospital, Cambridge; UK). Prevention of breast cancer in the context of a national breast screening programme (Review). J Intern Med 2012; 271: 321–330.

Ovarian cancer among 8,005 women from a breast cancer family history clinic: no increased risk of invasive ovarian cancer in families testing negative for BRCA1 and BRCA2.

Background Mutations in BRCA1/2 genes confer ovarian, alongside breast, cancer risk. We examined the risk of developing ovarian cancer in BRCA1/2-positive families and if this risk is extended to BRCA negative families. Patients and Methods A prospective study involving women seen at a single family history clinic in Manchester, UK. Patients were excluded if they had ovarian cancer or oophorectomy prior to clinic. Follow-up was censored at the latest date of: 31/12/2010; ovarian cancer diagnosis; oophorectomy; or death. We used person-years at risk to assess ovarian cancer rates in the study population, subdivided by genetic status (BRCA1, BRCA2, BRCA negative, BRCA untested) compared with the general population. Results We studied 8005 women from 895 families. Women from BRCA2 mutation families showed a 17-fold increased risk of invasive ovarian cancer (relative risk (RR) 16.67; 95% CI 5.41 to 38.89). This risk increased to 50-fold in women from families with BRCA1 mutations (RR 50.00; 95% CI 26.62 to 85.50). No association was found for women in families tested negative for BRCA1/2, where there was 1 observed invasive ovarian cancer in 1613 women when 2.74 were expected (RR 0.37; 95% CI 0.01 to 2.03). There was no association with ovarian cancer in families untested for BRCA1/2 (RR 0.99; 95% CI 0.45 to 1.88). Discussion This study showed no increased risk of ovarian cancer in families that tested negative for BRCA1/2 or were untested. These data help counselling women from BRCA1/2 negative families with breast cancer that their risk of invasive ovarian cancer is not higher than the general population.

Malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumours in NF1: Improved survival in women and in recent years

BACKGROUND Malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumours (MPNST) are the main soft tissue malignancy associated with neurofibromatosis 1. These uncommon tumours are known to occur at high frequency and lead to poor survival. Our aim was to determine risk of MPNST in NF1 patients, and survival rates. METHODS The incidence of MPNST in NF1 was identified through the NF1 genetic register and The North West Cancer Intelligence Service (NWCIS). Data were used to generate incidence and survival curves. Strict regional boundaries were adhered to avoid ascertainment bias. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to determine five and ten-year survival. RESULTS Of the 1059 NF1 patients 52 developed MPNST (30 cases in females and 22 in males), 43 cases were resident within the strict regional boundary. The risk of MPNST was 10.2% in males and 12.7% in females by age 70 years (p=0.9), with a statistically better survival in females than males (5 and 10 year survival 46% and 41.5% versus 22% and 8.2%; p=0.05). Survival was also significantly improved for patients diagnosed in the last 14 years compared to the previous 13-year period (p=0.03). CONCLUSION With fifteen strict regional MPNSTs in the fourteen years since our previous population study an annual incidence of above 1 per 1000 NF1 patients has now been maintained over a 27-year period. No significant increase in risk of MPNST in females compared to males was found, though the difference in survival is intriguing. Male survival is particularly poor with <10% alive at 10 years.

Prevention of Breast Cancer on the context of National Breast Screening Programme.

Abstract.  Howell A, Astley S, Warwick J, Stavrinos P, Sahin S, Ingham S, McBurney H, Eckersley B, Harvie M, Wilson M, Beetles U, Warren R, Hufton A, Sergeant J, Newman W, Buchan I, Cuzick J, Evans DG (Genesis Prevention Centre and Nightingale Breast Screening Centre, University Hospital of South Manchester; School of Cancer and Enabling Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester; Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London; School of Community Based Medicine, University of Manchester, Manchester; Genetic Medicine, Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre, University of Manchester and Central Manchester Foundation Trust, Manchester; and Cambridge Breast Unit, Addenbrooke’s Hospital, Cambridge; UK). Prevention of breast cancer in the context of a national breast screening programme (Review). J Intern Med 2012; 271: 321–330.

Development and validation of self-reported line drawings for assessment of knee malalignment and foot rotation: a cross-sectional comparative study

BackgroundFor large scale epidemiological studies clinical assessments and radiographs can be impractical and expensive to apply to more than just a sample of the population examined. The study objectives were to develop and validate two novel instruments for self-reported knee malalignment and foot rotation suitable for use in questionnaire studies of knee pain and osteoarthritis.MethodsTwo sets of line drawings were developed using similar methodology. Each instrument consisted of an explanatory question followed by a set of drawings showing straight alignment, then two each at 7.5° angulation and 15° angulation in the varus/valgus (knee) and inward/outward (foot) directions. Forty one participants undertaking a community study completed the instruments on two occasions. Participants were assessed once by a blinded expert clinical observer with demonstrated excellent reproducibility. Validity was assessed by sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratio (LR) using the observer as the reference standard. Reliability was assessed using weighted kappa (κ). Knee malalignment was measured on 400 knee radiographs. General linear model was used to assess for the presence of a linear increase in knee alignment angle (measured medially) from self-reported severe varus to mild varus, straight, mild valgus and severe valgus deformity.ResultsObserver reproducibility (κ) was 0.89 and 0.81 for the knee malalignment and foot rotation instruments respectively. Self-reported participant reproducibility was also good for the knee (κ 0.73) and foot (κ 0.87) instruments. Validity was excellent for the knee malalignment instrument, with a sensitivity of 0.74 (95%CI 0.54, 0.93) and specificity of 0.97 (95%CI 0.94, 1.00). Similarly the foot rotation instrument was also found to have high sensitivity (0.92, 95%CI 0.83, 1.01) and specificity (0.96, 95%CI 0.93, 1.00). The knee alignment angle increased progressively from self reported severe varus to mild varus, straight, mild valgus and severe valgus knee malalignment (ptrend <0.001).ConclusionsThe two novel instruments appear to provide a valid and reliable assessment of self-reported knee malalignment and foot rotation, and may have a practical use in epidemiological studies.

Breast cancer risk feedback to women in the UK NHS breast screening population.

Introduction:There are widespread moves to develop risk-stratified approaches to population-based breast screening. The public needs to favour receiving breast cancer risk information, which ideally should produce no detrimental effects. This study investigates risk perception, the proportion wishing to know their 10-year risk and whether subsequent screening attendance is affected.Methods:Fifty thousand women attending the NHS Breast Screening Programme completed a risk assessment questionnaire. Ten-year breast cancer risks were estimated using a validated algorithm (Tyrer-Cuzick) adjusted for visually assessed mammographic density. Women at high risk (⩾8%) and low risk (<1%) were invited for face-to-face or telephone risk feedback and counselling.Results:Of those invited to receive risk feedback, more high-risk women, 500 out of 673 (74.3%), opted to receive a consultation than low-risk women, 106 out of 193 (54.9%) (P<0.001). Women at high risk were significantly more likely to perceive their risk as high (P<0.001) and to attend their subsequent mammogram (94.4%) compared with low-risk women (84.2%; P=0.04) and all attendees (84.3%; ⩽0.0001).Conclusions:Population-based assessment of breast cancer risk is feasible. The majority of women wished to receive risk information. Perception of general population breast cancer risk is poor. There were no apparent adverse effects on screening attendance for high-risk women whose subsequent screening attendance was increased.

Uptake of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy in women carrying a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation: evidence for lower uptake in women affected by breast cancer and older women

Background:Bilateral risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (BRRSO) is the only effective way of reducing mortality from ovarian cancer. This study investigates uptake of BRRSO in 700 BRCA1/2 mutation carriers from Greater Manchester.Methods:Dates of last follow-up and BRRSO were obtained, and the following variables were investigated: ovarian cancer risk/gene, age and breast cancer history. The date of the genetic mutation report was the initiation for Kaplan–Meier analysis.Results:The uptake of BRRSO in BRCA1 mutation carriers was 54.5% (standard error 3.6%) at 5 years post testing compared with 45.5% (standard error 3.2%) in BRCA2 mutation carriers (P=0.045). The 40–59 years category showed the greatest uptake for BRRSO and uptake was significantly lower in the over 60 s (P<0.0001). Of the unaffected BRCA1 mutation carriers, 65% (standard error 5.1%) opted for surgery at 5 years post-testing compared with 41.1% (standard error 5.1%) in affected BRCA1 mutation carriers (P=0.045).Conclusion:The uptake of BRRSO is lower in women previously affected by breast cancer and in older women. As there is no efficient method for early detection of ovarian cancer, uptake should ideally be greater. Counselling should be offered to ensure BRCA1/2 mutation carriers make an informed decision about managing their ovarian cancer risk.