Sarah Mander

Going beyond two degrees? The risks and opportunities of alternative options

Since the mid-1990s, the aim of keeping climate change within 2 °C has become firmly entrenched in policy discourses. In the past few years, the likelihood of achieving it has been increasingly called into question. The debate around what to do with a target that seems less and less achievable is, however, only just beginning. As the UN commences a two-year review of the 2 °C target, this article moves beyond the somewhat binary debates about whether or not it should or will be met, in order to analyse more fully some of the alternative options that have been identified but not fully explored in the existing literature. For the first time, uncertainties, risks, and opportunities associated with four such options are identified and synthesized from the literature. The analysis finds that the significant risks and uncertainties associated with some options may encourage decision makers to recommit to the 2 °C target as the least unattractive course of action.

Aviation in turbulent times

The aviation sector is in turbulent times. On top of increased security concerns, oil price rises and health scares, it now finds itself at the centre of the climate change debate. Previously highly resilient to short-term ‘shocks’, it remains unclear as to how the aviation sector will respond to persistent and significant pressure to mitigate its global carbon emissions. From a technological point of view, mitigation is not straightforward, with few, if any, low-carbon technologies available in the short-term and significant time-lags in achieving the necessary penetration of the global fleet. Moreover, many drivers within the sector are aligned towards growth and despite political recognition of the increasing importance of aviations CO2 emissions, policies encouraging growth of the industry continue to conflict with the climate change agenda. Given the complexity of the aviation system within a dynamic commercial environment, scenarios, rather than economic forecasts, are used here to explore opportunities for the aviation industry to develop within the constraints of the EUs own climate change targets. The scenarios illustrate a variety of feasible aviation futures, but all require other sectors to make emission reductions well in excess of those levels currently envisaged, due to the expansion of the EUs aviation industry within a constrained carbon cap.

The Role of Discourse Coalitions in Planning for Renewable Energy: A Case Study of Wind-Energy Deployment:

This paper explores the role of coalition building in the implementation of renewable-energy policy. Applying a discourse analysis framework to wind-energy development in the North West of England, two strong coalitions operating within the wind-energy development arena were identified. By combining this framework with a multicriteria assessment, it is revealed that each coalition had very different priorities during the evaluation of wind-energy schemes. Overall, only when offshore wind is evaluated are there elements of common ground. This technology therefore appears to offer a solution to sharp contrasts in discourse. Based on this assessment, it is concluded that the implementation of national energy-policy objectives is contingent upon the regional government developing coherent storylines to attract the support of as broad a coalition of stakeholders as possible.

Decarbonizing the UK energy system and the implications for UK shipping

Background: The current UK energy system relies heavily on shipped imports of fossil fuels. As climate change policies drive energy system decarbonization, fuel imports are likely to change. Results: Based upon future energy scenarios devised by the UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change and a set of contrasting trading assumptions, this article explores the impact of energy system decarbonization upon freight work and CO2 emissions arising from fuel shipping. While oil and oil products are currently the most important contributors to both freight work and shipping CO2 emissions, by 2050 biofuels and biomass will become dominant energy commodities. Conclusion: The distance over which fuel travels is important and the greatest reductions in absolute CO2 emissions are achieved when fuel is sourced close to the UK.

Designing consumer engagement with the smart grids of the future: bringing active demand technology to everyday life

Automated control of consumer electricity loads, or active demand (AD) management, is a key component of many smart grid futures. Within the sociology of expectations, expectations define the future role and responsibilities of actors with respect to a new technology and in so doing set a trajectory for design and development. This paper explores the expectations of the behaviour of end users, envisaged by the designers and engineers of an AD project. Three main themes emerge. The first theme is that designers situate the new technology in an electricity consumption ideal, where households harmonise daily routines to service electricity retail markets. In the second theme, AD is aligned to new technological landscapes and enhanced through digital innovations. These visions are crucial for achieving the third theme, namely economically rational consumers. For widespread adoption of AD, however, the technology needs to be designed for real, as opposed to ideal users.

Importance of non-CO2 emissions in carbon management

Background: GHG budgets highlight a need for urgency, yet analyses are often CO2-focused, with less attention paid to non-CO2. Results: In this paper, scenarios are used to explore non-CO2 drivers and barriers to their mitigation, drawing out implications for CO2 management. Results suggest that even optimistic technological and consumption-related developments lead to on-going increases in global N2O, largely to improve food security within a changing climate. This contrasts with existing analysis, where lower levels of N2O by 2050 are projected. Conclusions: As avoiding ‘2ｰC’ limits the emissions budget, constraints on reducing non-CO2 add pressure to energy system decarbonization. Overlooking how a changing climate and rising consumption restricts efforts to curb non-CO2 will result in policies aiming to avoid 2ｰC falling short of the mark.

Technologies for the high seas: meeting the climate challenge

Background: Progress toward decarbonizing shipping has been slow compared with other sectors. To explore the scope for an urgent step-change cut in CO2, this paper presents results from a participatory technology roadmapping exercise. Results: Combining existing incremental and novel technologies with slow-steaming can deliver reductions in CO2 of over 50% even in the short term for existing ships. However, roadmaps for three vessel types illustrate barriers to change including the sectors complexity, infrastructure lock-in and a need for tailored market and vessel-specific roadmaps to support decision-making. Conclusions: Through technology and engineering, the outlook for the shipping sector to significantly cut its CO2 emissions, even in the short term, is promising. Nevertheless, the scale of change requires support to demonstrate how the long-term low-carbon vision offers enough benefit to overcome necessary short-term investment.

Regional Renewable Energy Policy: A Process of Coalition Building

In 2003, the UK Government adopted a target to reduce carbon emissions by 60 percent by 2050, a longer term commitment than is required under the Kyoto Protocol. Given that increasing low carbon generating capacity is essential to achieve the required carbon reductions, renewable energy policies are a central element of overall climate change policy. To facilitate the building of renewable capacity, greater responsibility has been placed upon the English regions, with the advent of regional sustainable energy strategies, though there remain many profound tensions between the liberalized UK energy system and the adoption of a more strategic approach to renewable energy at the regional scale. This paper uses a discourse analysis framework to explore wind energy policy in the North West of England from the perspective of competing coalitions. In the light of this assessment, it is concluded that the implementation of national energy policy at regional and sub-regional scales can be considered as a process of coalition building, where Government is reliant on building partnership between state and non-state actors to achieve its objectives.

Consumer responses to a future UK food system

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe research exploring consumer responses to potential changes in food-related practices to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Design/methodology/approach – Six focus groups explored consumer responses to measures to intended to mitigate the emissions from, and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These included: meat reduction, greater reliance on seasonal British food, meal replacement tablets, laboratory grown meat, communal eating houses, genetically modified food and food waste. Practice theory provided the lens to interpret the changes to meanings, competences and materials associated with food consumption. Findings – Changes that could be assimilated within existing competencies were viewed more positively, with lack of competence a key barrier to accommodating change. At present, climate change and sustainability do not influence purchasing decisions. Policy measures delivering multiple benefits (“win-wins”), of which environmental performance m...

Are we Nearly There Yet? A Review of Progress Against CCS Roadmaps in the UK

5 years ago we held a stakeholder workshop (organised by the Tyndall Centre with Stuart Haszeldine on behalf of UKERC) in Edinburgh with the aim of developing a roadmap for CCS deployment in the UK. The workshop took as a starting point results from an extensive survey of expert opinion on the state of CCS technologies (Gough 2008) and produced roadmaps describing the shortand long-term views and the influence of externalities (Gough, Mander et al. 2010). In the meantime, other more recent roadmaps have been developed at a global scale by the IEA (International Energy Agency 2010), for Europe (EC CCS roadmap planned for release 3rd quarter of 2012), the US (DOE/NETL 2010), Scotland (Scottish Government 2010).