Saranath Lawpoolsri

Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: A case study in endemic districts of Bhutan

BackgroundMalaria still remains a public health problem in some districts of Bhutan despite marked reduction of cases in last few years. To strengthen the countrys prevention and control measures, this study was carried out to develop forecasting and prediction models of malaria incidence in the endemic districts of Bhutan using time series and ARIMAX.MethodsThis study was carried out retrospectively using the monthly reported malaria cases from the health centres to Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP) and the meteorological data from Meteorological Unit, Department of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs. Time series analysis was performed on monthly malaria cases, from 1994 to 2008, in seven malaria endemic districts. The time series models derived from a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was deployed to identify the best model using data from 1994 to 2006. The best-fit model was selected for each individual district and for the overall endemic area was developed and the monthly cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 were forecasted. In developing the prediction model, the monthly reported malaria cases and the meteorological factors from 1996 to 2008 of the seven districts were analysed. The method of ARIMAX modelling was employed to determine predictors of malaria of the subsequent month.ResultsIt was found that the ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)s model (p and P representing the auto regressive and seasonal autoregressive; d and D representing the non-seasonal differences and seasonal differencing; and q and Q the moving average parameters and seasonal moving average parameters, respectively and s representing the length of the seasonal period) for the overall endemic districts was (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12; the modelling data from each district revealed two most common ARIMA models including (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12. The forecasted monthly malaria cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 varied from 15 to 82 cases in 2009 and 67 to 149 cases in 2010, where population in 2009 was 285,375 and the expected population of 2010 to be 289,085. The ARIMAX model of monthly cases and climatic factors showed considerable variations among the different districts. In general, the mean maximum temperature lagged at one month was a strong positive predictor of an increased malaria cases for four districts. The monthly number of cases of the previous month was also a significant predictor in one district, whereas no variable could predict malaria cases for two districts.ConclusionsThe ARIMA models of time-series analysis were useful in forecasting the number of cases in the endemic areas of Bhutan. There was no consistency in the predictors of malaria cases when using ARIMAX model with selected lag times and climatic predictors. The ARIMA forecasting models could be employed for planning and managing malaria prevention and control programme in Bhutan.

Optimally timing primaquine treatment to reduce Plasmodium falciparum transmission in low endemicity Thai-Myanmar border populations

BackgroundEffective malaria control has successfully reduced the malaria burden in many countries, but to eliminate malaria, these countries will need to further improve their control efforts. Here, a malaria control programme was critically evaluated in a very low-endemicity Thai-Myanmar border population, where early detection and prompt treatment have substantially reduced, though not ended, Plasmodium falciparum transmission, in part due to carriage of late-maturing gametocytes that remain post-treatment. To counter this effect, the WHO recommends the use of a single oral dose of primaquine along with an effective blood schizonticide. However, while the effectiveness of primaquine as a gametocidal agent is widely documented, the mismatch between primaquines short half-life, the long-delay for gametocyte maturation and the proper timing of primaquine administration have not been studied.MethodsMathematical models were constructed to simulate 8-year surveillance data, between 1999 and 2006, of seven villages along the Thai-Myanmar border. A simple model was developed to consider primaquine pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, gametocyte carriage, and infectivity.ResultsIn these populations, transmission intensity is very low, so the P. falciparum parasite rate is strongly linked to imported malaria and to the fraction of cases not treated. Given a 3.6-day half-life of gametocyte, the estimated duration of infectiousness would be reduced by 10 days for every 10-fold reduction in initial gametocyte densities. Infectiousness from mature gametocytes would last two to four weeks and sustain some transmission, depending on the initial parasite densities, but the residual mature gametocytes could be eliminated by primaquine. Because of the short half-life of primaquine (approximately eight hours), it was immediately obvious that with early administration (within three days after an acute attack), primaquine would not be present when mature gametocytes emerged eight days after the appearance of asexual blood-stage parasites. A model of optimal timing suggests that primaquine follow-up approximately eight days after a clinical episode could further reduce the duration of infectiousness from two to four weeks down to a few days. The prospects of malaria elimination would be substantially improved by changing the timing of primaquine administration and combining this with effective detection and management of imported malaria cases. The value of using primaquine to reduce residual gametocyte densities and to reduce malaria transmission was considered in the context of a malaria transmission model; the added benefit of the primaquine follow-up treatment would be relatively large only if a high fraction of patients (>95%) are initially treated with schizonticidal agents.ConclusionMathematical models have previously identified the long duration of P. falciparum asexual blood-stage infections as a critical point in maintaining malaria transmission, but infectiousness can persist for two to four weeks because of residual populations of mature gametocytes. Simulations from new models suggest that, in areas where a large fraction of malaria cases are treated, curing the asexual parasitaemia in a primary infection, and curing mature gametocyte infections with an eight-day follow-up treatment with primaquine have approximately the same proportional effects on reducing the infectious period. Changing the timing of primaquine administration would, in all likelihood, interrupt transmission in this area with very good health systems and with very low endemicity.

Directly-observed therapy (DOT) for the radical 14-day primaquine treatment of Plasmodium vivax malaria on the Thai-Myanmar border

BackgroundPlasmodium vivax has a dormant hepatic stage, called the hypnozoite, which can cause relapse months after the initial attack. For 50 years, primaquine has been used as a hypnozoitocide to radically cure P. vivax infection, but major concerns remain regarding the side-effects of the drug and adherence to the 14-day regimen. This study examined the effectiveness of using the directly-observed therapy (DOT) method for the radical treatment of P. vivax malaria infection, to prevent reappearance of the parasite within the 90-day follow-up period. Other potential risk factors for the reappearance of P. vivax were also explored.MethodsA randomized trial was conducted from May 2007 to January 2009 in a low malaria transmission area along the Thai-Myanmar border. Patients aged ≥ 3 years diagnosed with P. vivax by microscopy, were recruited. All patients were treated with the national standard regimen of chloroquine for three days followed by primaquine for 14 days. Patients were randomized to receive DOT or self-administered therapy (SAT). All patients were followed for three months to check for any reappearance of P. vivax.ResultsOf the 216 patients enrolled, 109 were randomized to DOT and 107 to SAT. All patients recovered without serious adverse effects. The vivax reappearance rate was significantly lower in the DOT group than the SAT group (3.4/10,000 person-days vs. 13.5/10,000 person-days, p = 0.021). Factors related to the reappearance of vivax malaria included inadequate total primaquine dosage received (< 2.75 mg/kg), duration of fever ≤ 2 days before initiation of treatment, parasite count on admission ≥ 10,000/µl, multiple P. vivax-genotype infection, and presence of P. falciparum infection during the follow-up period.ConclusionsAdherence to the 14-day primaquine regimen is important for the radical cure of P. vivax malaria infection. Implementation of DOT reduces the reappearance rate of the parasite, and may subsequently decrease P. vivax transmission in the area.

Pharmacokinetic interactions between primaquine and chloroquine

ABSTRACT Chloroquine combined with primaquine has been the standard radical curative regimen for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium ovale malaria for over half a century. In an open-label crossover pharmacokinetic study, 16 healthy volunteers (4 males and 12 females) aged 20 to 47 years were randomized into two groups of three sequential hospital admissions to receive a single oral dose of 30 mg (base) primaquine, 600 mg (base) chloroquine, and the two drugs together. The coadministration of the two drugs did not affect chloroquine or desethylchloroquine pharmacokinetics but increased plasma primaquine concentrations significantly (P ≤ 0.005); the geometric mean (90% confidence interval [CI]) increases were 63% (47 to 81%) in maximum concentration and 24% (13 to 35%) in total exposure. There were also corresponding increases in plasma carboxyprimaquine concentrations (P ≤ 0.020). There were no significant electrocardiographic changes following primaquine administration, but there was slight corrected QT (QTc) (Fridericia) interval lengthening following chloroquine administration (median [range] = 6.32 [−1.45 to 12.3] ms; P < 0.001), which was not affected by the addition of primaquine (5.58 [1.74 to 11.4] ms; P = 0.642). This pharmacokinetic interaction may explain previous observations of synergy in preventing P. vivax relapse. This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under reference number NCT01218932.

Spatio-temporal patterns of malaria infection in Bhutan: a country embarking on malaria elimination

BackgroundAt the verge of elimination of malaria in Bhutan, this study was carried out to analyse the trend of malaria in the endemic districts of Bhutan and to identify malaria clusters at the sub-districts. The findings would aid in implementing the control activities. Poisson regression was performed to study the trend of malaria incidences at district level from 1994 to 2008. Spatial Empirical Bayesian smoothing was deployed to identify clusters of malaria at the sub-district level from 2004 to 2008.ResultsTrend of the overall districts and most of the endemic districts have decreased except Pemagatshel, which has an increase in the trend. Spatial cluster-outlier analysis showed that malaria clusters were mostly concentrated in the central and eastern Bhutan in three districts of Dagana, Samdrup Jongkhar and Sarpang. The disease clusters were reported throughout the year. Clusters extended to the non-transmission areas in the eastern Bhutan.ConclusionsThere is significant decrease in the trend of malaria with the elimination at the sight. The decrease in the trend can be attributed to the success of the control and preventive measures. In order to realize the target of elimination of malaria, the control measure needs to be prioritized in these high-risk clusters of malaria.

Artemisinin resistance containment project in Thailand. II: Responses to mefloquine-artesunate combination therapy among falciparum malaria patients in provinces bordering Cambodia.

BackgroundThe area along the Thai-Cambodian border is considered an epicenter of anti-malarial drug resistance. Recently, parasite resistance to artemisinin-based therapies has been reported in the area. The artemisinin resistance containment project was initiated in November 2008, with the aim to limit resistant parasites and eliminate malaria in this region. This study describes the response to artemisinin-based therapy among falciparum malaria patients in the area, using data from the malaria surveillance programmed under the containment project.MethodsThe study was conducted in seven provinces of Thailand along the Thai-Cambodian border. Data of Plasmodium falciparum-positive patients during January 2009 to December 2011 were obtained from the electronic malaria information system (eMIS) Web-based reporting system. All P. falciparum cases were followed for 42 days, as the routine case follow-up protocol. The demographic characteristics of the patients were described. Statistical analysis was performed to determine the cure rate of the current standard anti-malarial drug regimen--mefloquine-artesunate combination therapy (MAS). The proportion of patients who remained parasite-positive at each follow-up day was calculated. In addition, factors related to the delayed parasite clearance on day-3 post-treatment, were explored.ResultsA total of 1,709 P. falciparum-positive cases were reported during the study period. Almost 70% of falciparum cases received MAS therapy (n = 1,174). The majority of cases were males, aged between 31 and 50 years. The overall MAS cure rate was >90% over the three-year period. Almost all patients were able to clear the parasite within 7 to 14 days post-treatment. Approximately 14% of patients undergoing MAS remained parasite-positive on day-3. Delayed parasite clearance was not significantly associated with patient gender, age, or citizenship. However, delayed parasite clearance varied across the study area.ConclusionAnti-malarial drug-resistant parasites should be closely monitored in the area along the Thai-Cambodian border. Although the MAS cure rate in this study area was above 90%, an increasing trend of treatment failure has been reported in neighboring parts. Effective malaria surveillance is an important component to monitor drug-resistance in the malaria containment project.

Risk of potentially rabid animal exposure among foreign travelers in Southeast Asia.

Background Each year millions of travelers visit Southeast Asia where rabies is still prevalent. This study aimed to assess the risk of rabies exposure, i.e., by being bitten or licked by an animal, among travelers in Southeast Asia. The secondary objective was to assess their attitudes and practices related to rabies. Methodology/Principal Findings Foreign travelers departing to the destination outside Southeast Asia were invited to fill out the study questionnaire in the departure hall of Bangkok International Airport. They were asked about their demographic profile, travel characteristics, pre-travel health preparations, their possible exposure and their practices related to rabies during this trip. From June 2010 to February 2011, 7,681 completed questionnaires were collected. Sixty-two percent of the travelers were male, and the median age was 32 years. 34.0% of the participants were from Western/Central Europe, while 32.1% were from East Asia. Up to 59.3% had sought health information before this trip. Travel clinics were the source of information for 23.6% of travelers. Overall, only 11.6% of the participants had completed their rabies pre-exposure prophylaxis, and 15.3% had received only 1–2 shots, while 73.1% had not been vaccinated at all. In this study, the risk of being bitten was 1.11 per 100 travelers per month and the risk of being licked was 3.12 per 100 travelers per month. Among those who were bitten, only 37.1% went to the hospital to get post exposure treatment. Travelers with East Asian nationalities and longer duration of stay were significantly related to higher risk of animal exposure. Reason for travel was not related to the risk of animal exposure. Conclusions Travelers were at risk of being exposed to potentially rabid animals while traveling in Southeast Asia. Many were inadequately informed and unprepared for this life-threatening risk. Rabies prevention advice should be included in every pre-travel visit.

Artemisinin resistance containment project in Thailand. (I): Implementation of electronic-based malaria information system for early case detection and individual case management in provinces along the Thai-Cambodian border

BackgroundThe Bureau of Vector-borne Diseases, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand, has implemented an electronic Malaria Information System (eMIS) as part of a strategy to contain artemisinin resistance. The attempt corresponds to the WHO initiative, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, to contain anti-malarial drug resistance in Southeast Asia. The main objective of this study was to demonstrate the eMIS’ functionality and outputs after implementation for use in the Thailand artemisinin-resistance containment project.MethodsThe eMIS had been functioning since 2009 in seven Thai-Cambodian border provinces. The eMIS has covered 61 malaria posts/clinics, 27 Vector-borne Disease Units covering 12,508 hamlets at risk of malaria infections. The eMIS was designed as an evidence-based and near real-time system to capture data for early case detection, intensive case investigation, monitoring drug compliance and on/off-site tracking of malarial patients, as well as collecting data indicating potential drug resistance among patients. Data captured by the eMIS in 2008–2011 were extracted and presented.ResultsThe core functionalities of the eMIS have been utilized by malaria staff at all levels, from local operational units to ministerial management. The eMIS case detection module suggested decreasing trends during 2009–2011; the number of malaria cases detected in the project areas over the years studied were 3818, 2695, and 2566, with sero-positive rates of 1.24, 0.98, and 1.16%, respectively. The eMIS case investigation module revealed different trends in weekly Plasmodium falciparum case numbers, when classified by responsible operational unit, local and migrant status, and case-detection type. It was shown that most Thai patients were infected within their own residential district, while migrants were infected either at their working village or from across the border. The data mapped in the system suggested that P. falciparum-infected cases and potential drug-resistant cases were scattered mostly along the border villages. The mobile technology application has detected different follow-up rates, with particularly low rates among seasonal and cross-border migrants.ConclusionThe eMIS demonstrated that it could capture essential data from individual malaria cases at local operational units, while effectively being used for situation and trend analysis at upper-management levels. The system provides evidence-based information that could contribute to the control and containment of resistant parasites. Currently, the eMIS is expanding beyond the Thai-Cambodian project areas to the provinces that lie along the Thai-Myanmar border.

Application of Mobile Technology for Improving Expanded Program on Immunization Among Highland Minority and Stateless Populations in Northern Thailand Border

Background Studies of undervaccinated children of minority/stateless populations have highlighted significant barriers at individual, community, and state levels. These include geography-related difficulties, poverty, and social norms/beliefs. Objective The objective of this study was to assess project outcomes regarding immunization coverage, as well as maternal attitudes and practices toward immunization. Methods The “StatelessVac” project was conducted in Thailand-Myanmar-Laos border areas using cell phone-based mechanisms to increase immunization coverage by incorporating phone-to-phone information sharing for both identification and prevention. With limitation of the study among vulnerable populations in low-resource settings, the pre/post assessments without comparison group were conducted. Immunization coverage was collected from routine monthly reports while behavior-change outcomes were from repeat surveys. Results This study revealed potential benefits of the initiative for case identification; immunization coverage showed an improved trend. Prevention strategies were successfully integrated into the routine health care workflows of immunization activities at point-of-care. A behavior-change-communication package contributes significantly in raising both concern and awareness in relation to child care. Conclusions The mobile technology has proven to be an effective mechanism in improving a children’s immunization program among these hard-to-reach populations. Part of the intervention has now been revised for use at health centers across the country.

Barriers to and Motivations for the Implementation of a Treatment Programme for Latent Tuberculosis Infection using Isoniazid for People Living with HIV, in Upper Northern Thailand

Background: Isoniazid Preventive Therapy (IPT) has been recommended by WHO/UNAIDS for people living with HIV (PLWH) since 1993; however the uptake of IPT implementation has been very low globally. This study aims to assess the barriers to and motivations for the implementation of IPT for PLWH in upper northern Thailand, an area with a high tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) burden. Methods: A survey was carried out via self-administered questionnaires mailed to healthcare workers (HCW) in all 95 public hospitals in the upper northern region of Thailand. A reminding phone call, one month after sending the mail, was made. Results: The response rate from the hospitals was 94% and from the HCWs, 70%. IPT programme was being implemented at only 18 (20%) out of the 89 public hospitals. The main barriers as reported by 144 HCWs working in hospitals without IPT programme, were: (1) unclear direction of national policy (60%), (2) fear of emerging Isoniazid resistant tuberculosis (52%), and (3) fear of poor adherence (30%). The 38 HCWs from hospitals implementing IPT programme, were motivated by (1) knowledge that IPT can prevent TB (63%), (2) the following of national guideline (34%), (3) concern for TB prevention even after the expansion of access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) (32%). Conclusion and Recommendation: To implement an IPT programme for PLWH, giving a clear national policy and straightforward direction are necessary. Furthermore, provision of public health information and updated evidences may enhance HCWs comprehension of benefits and risks of IPT, thus it may increase the IPT programme implementation.