Saroj Bhattarai

Monetary Policy and Central Bank Balance Sheet Concerns

We introduce a fiscally independent central bank with balance sheet concerns in the new Keynesian model. The central bank is subject to a budget constraint and state-contingent transfers from the treasury are not allowed. This change renders the standard optimal monetary policy solution non implementable. In addition to facing a budget constraint, when the central bank targets real capital, optimal monetary policy is substantially different from the standard case. In response to a cost-push shock, variation in inflation decreases at the cost of increased output gap variation; there is incomplete stabilization of aggregate demand and money demand shocks; response to a cost-push shock under discretion is similar to that under commitment in the standard model; and the central bank tracks real money balances.

Is increased price flexibility stabilizing? Redux

We study the implications of increased price flexibility on output volatility. In a simple DSGE model, we show analytically that more flexible prices always amplify output volatility for supply shocks and also amplify output volatility for demand shocks if monetary policy does not respond strongly to inflation. More flexible prices often reduce welfare, even under optimal monetary policy if full efficiency cannot be attained. We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model using post-WWII U.S. data. In a counterfactual experiment we find that if prices and wages are fully flexible, the standard deviation of annualized output growth more than doubles.

Policy Regimes, Policy Shifts, and U.S. Business Cycles

Using an estimated DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions and allowing for equilibrium indeterminacy, we find that a passive monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed in the pre-Volcker period. This gave rise to self-fulfilling beliefs and unconventional transmission mechanisms of policy shifts: unanticipated increases in interest rates increased inflation and output, while unanticipated increases in lump-sum taxes decreased inflation and output. We show that had the monetary policy regime of the post-Volcker era been in place pre-Volcker, inflation volatility would have been lower by 25% and the rise of inflation in the 1970s would not have occurred.

Global Spillover Effects of US Uncertainty

Spillover effects of US uncertainty shocks are studied in a panel VAR of fifteen emerging market economies (EMEs). A US uncertainty shock negatively affects EME stock prices and exchange rates, raises EME country spreads, and decreases capital inflows into them. It decreases EME output and consumer prices while increasing net exports. Negative effects on output and asset prices are weaker, but effects on external balance stronger, for Latin American EMEs. We attribute such heterogeneity to differential EME monetary policy response to US uncertainty shocks. Analysis of central bank minutes shows Latin American EMEs pay less attention to smoothing capital flows.

Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy at the Zero Lower Bound in a Small Open Economy

We investigate open economy dimensions of optimal monetary and fiscal policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) in a small open economy model. At positive interest rates, the trade elasticity has negligible effects on optimal policy. In contrast, at the ZLB, the trade elasticity plays a key role in optimal policy prescriptions. The way in which the trade elasticity shapes policy depends on the governments ability to commit. Under discretion, the increase in government spending at the ZLB depends critically on the trade elasticity. Under commitment, the difference between future and current policies, both for domestic inflation and government spending, is smaller when the trade elasticity is higher.

Multiproduct Firms and Price-Setting: Theory and Evidence from U.S. Producer Prices

In this paper, we establish three new facts about price-setting by multi-product firms and contribute a model that can explain our findings. Our findings have important implications for real effects of nominal shocks and provide guidance for how to model pricing decisions of firms. On the empirical side, using micro-data on U.S. producer prices, we first show that firms selling more goods adjust their prices more frequently but on average by smaller amounts. Moreover, the higher the number of goods, the lower is the fraction of positive price changes and the more dispersed the distribution of price changes. Second, we document substantial synchronization of price changes within firms across products and show that synchronization plays a dominant role in explaining pricing dynamics. Third, we find that within-firm synchronization of price changes increases as the number of goods increases. On the theoretical side, we present a state-dependent pricing model where multi-product firms face both aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks. When we allow for firm-specific menu costs and trend inflation, the model matches the empirical findings.