Sarwar Jahan

The determination of stability and similarity of Markovian land use change processes: A theoretical and empirical analysis

Abstract This paper examines the process of land use change as a Markov process. The model as developed in this paper ateempts to specify criteria to determine the stability and similarity of the process of land use change before it reaches the equilibrium state which may take an infinite number of time periods. It is shown that the model is capable of identifying the time horizon during which the system shows sufficient stability since prediction with respect to future pattern is more likely to conform to the actual pattern if the system in question is stable.

Urban flooding of Greater Dhaka in a changing climate : building local resilience to disaster risk

Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh and one of the world’s rapidly growing megacities, is an urban hotspot for climate risks. Preparing for the unfolding impacts of climate-related changes – socio demographic, environmental, economic, and political - is a daunting task. It requires that Dhaka’s policymakers, like those in other megacities of South Asia’s low-lying deltas, understand how climate change is anticipated to affect natural hazards that lead to flooding in the cities. This study’s overall aim is to provide local decision-makers an effective planning approach for minimizing the damage risk of rainfall-induced urban flooding in Dhaka in a changing climate. Specific objectives are to assess the vulnerability of the Greater Dhaka area to urban flooding and waterlogging, estimate probable economic damage due to climate change, develop structural adaptation measures, evaluate the reduction in economic damage resulting from implementing these measures, and estimate their cost. The study comprises four main activities: (a) hydrological modeling and development of adaptation measures, (b) spatial ranking of flood vulnerability, (c) evaluating expected damage from flooding, and (d) estimating adaptation costs. This book is divided into two major parts: study methods (part 1) and results (part 2). Part one is organized into four chapters. Chapter two presents the conceptual framework for the hydrological modeling study and the method and processes used to model future scenarios. Chapter three presents the seven model setups for the detailed study area. Chapter four describes the method used to assess the modeled areas’ relative vulnerability to urban flooding, while chapter five explains the method used to estimate their economic damage. Part two, also organized into four chapters. Chapter six provides the study results for each of the seven modeled areas, while chapter seven summarizes the overall study results for Dhaka city. Chapter eight turns to the secondary flood-mitigation measures that can complement the recommended conveyance-centric solutions. Chapter nine suggests a way forward.

Regional Impact of Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh: A Multi-Sector Analysis

This research investigates the impact of cyclone Sidr on six regional economic systems of Bangladesh. The study uses secondary data on direct damages and corresponding changes in consumer spending and public/private investment expenditure. It employs input–output modeling and simulates the changes in national and regional output, income, and employment due to cyclone Sidr. Our findings indicate that coastal regions of Bangladesh—Barisal, Chittagong, and Khulna—are more vulnerable to cyclone disaster than are other parts of the country. The cyclone-induced loss of output is highest for Chittagong Division and income and employment losses are greatest in Barisal Division. The most affected sectors are housing services, agriculture, construction, and industrial activities. But sectoral losses vary widely across the regions. This research also finds that the present state of consumer spending and investment expenditure is not great enough to handle cyclone-induced output, income, and employment losses. It argues that investment decisions must consider regional patterns of output, income, and employment losses in different economic sectors to ensure cyclone-resilient development in Bangladesh.