Satoshi Shimizutani

Consumption insurance against natural disasters: evidence from the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake

We investigated whether people were insured against unexpected losses caused by the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995 and found that the full consumption insurance hypothesis was rejected overwhelmingly, suggesting the ineffectiveness of the formal/informal insurance mechanisms against the earthquake.

New Evidence on Initial Transition from Career Job to Retirement in Japan

The interval in time between leaving a career job and exit from the labor force is especially long for Japanese employees. We examine determinants of post-career work arrangements from two perspectives: work status and the route to a second job. We show that these determinants differ between male and female workers and that the customary function of career employers to place their workers in a second job has declined since the middle of the 1990s.

SOCIAL SECURITY REFORMS AND LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION OF THE ELDERLY IN JAPAN

We examine how social security programs have affected the labor force participation (LFP) of the elderly over the past forty years in Japan. Using publicly available data, we construct forwardlooking incentive measures for inducing retirement, to ascertain the actual changes in the generosity of the programs and to explore the impact of the reforms on the labor supply of the elderly. Our regression analysis shows that the LFP of the elderly is significantly sensitive to the measures, and our counter-historical simulations show that since 1985, social security reforms have significantly encouraged the elderly to remain longer in the labor force.

The Future of Long-term Care in Japan

This article reviews a decade of implementation of the public long-term care insurance (LTCI) program in Japan, which is now experiencing unprecedented pressure from its rapidly aging population. This overview of the programs features focuses on the incentive mechanisms and diversity and examines official future projections of LTC costs and their accompanying assumptions. Included is the discussion of possible reforms for the LTCI program, with an emphasis on the micro aspects of LTC, with evidence provided by the Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement (JSTAR).

Regional variations in medical expenditure and hospitalization days for heart attack patients in Japan: evidence from the Tokai Acute Myocardial Study (TAMIS)

In Japan, the use of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) for the treatment of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is extraordinarily frequent, resulting in large medical expenditure. Using chart-based data and exploiting regional variations, we explore what factors explain the frequent use of PTCA, employing propensity score matching to estimate the average treatment effects on hospital expenditure and hospital days. We find that the probability of receiving PTCA is affected by the density of medical resources in a region. Moreover, expenditure is higher for treated patients while there are no significant differences in hospitalization days, implying that the frequent use of PTCA is economically motivated.

Why Has Japan's Fertility Rate Declined?: An Empirical Literature Survey with an Emphasis on Policy Implications

Japans total fertility rate declined to 1.29 in 2003, the lowest in its modern era. Such a drastic decline in fertility rate is extremely unusual. The decreased birthrate creates an unbalanced demographic composition between the productive and dependent populations. This development may result in agreater burden per person regarding social security and have a negative effect on Japans long-term economic performance. This article surveys the literature on the decline in Japans fertility rate. It emphasizes the policy implications with respect to supporting households that want to have children. In the first section of the article, we describe a long-term trend in Japans fertility rate and show that the decline after the 1970s was primarily attributed to a decline in marriage rates, and partly due to a decline in the number of households with three or more children. We then present a survey empirical studies to examine the relationship between birthrates and several factors: an increase in the opportunity costs of having children caused by increases in female wages and labor participation, the growing costs of child care, the shortage of child care services, poor company support for child care leave, and direct public compensation for having children. We conclude that all policies supporting female workers and child care are especially important.

SOCIAL SECURITY EARNINGS TEST AND THE LABOUR SUPPLY OF THE ELDERLY: NEW EVIDENCE FROM UNIQUE SURVEY RESPONSES IN JAPAN*

This study proposes an alternative approach of utilizing direct responses to a survey on the social security earnings test for the elderly to provide new evidence on the sensitivity of the labour supply decision of workers aged between 60 and 64 with respect to the test. Our empirical results show a discouraging effect on working in a large proportion of these workers in Japan, even after correcting for the observed attributes of individuals who reported being either affected or unaffected.

The Response of Household Expenditure to Anticipated Income Changes: Bonus Payments and the Seasonality of Consumption in Japan

This paper exploits a notable institutional feature of salary payments in Japan, the bonus system, to examine whether households smooth consumption under large and regular income changes. Using high quality household-level data from the Japanese Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), our statistical tests show that the consumption seasonality of bonus receiving households is significantly affected by the bonus payments. Although our estimate of the marginal propensity to consume from bonus income is much smaller than that from smaller and less predictable end-of-year tax refunds, it is positive and significantly different from zero, which contrasts to earlier studies on large and regular income changes.

Developments in Long-Term Care Insurance in Japan

The recently-enacted Japanese long-term care (LTC) system was implemented to reduce so-called social hospitalization or warehousing of the elderly in expensive medical facilities. This paper seeks to evaluate recent patterns in Japanese LTC use and examine the factors associated with LTC utilization patterns. We show that the demand for LTC in Japan - particularly home care - is growing rapidly, as elderly consumers find subsidized LTC care preferable to and more available than hospitalization. At the same time, regional disparities in care persist and are likely to grow.

Did Japanese Consumers Become More Prudent During 1998-1999?: Evidence From Household Level Data

Abstract This paper explores empirically whether Japanese consumers became more prudent in the second half of the 1990s, a decade in which Japan registered historically low economic growth. Employing the methodology developed by Dynan (1993), this study uses micro-level data from the Family Savings Survey and the Family Income and Expenditure Survey to estimate the coefficient of prudence for Japanese households in the second half of the 1990s. The estimates reveal that the coefficient of prudence is positive and statistically significant in the 1998–1999 period. The obtained value for the coefficient of prudence is four, which is much higher than that estimated for US households (not significantly different from zero) or UK households (around 2). The estimated coefficient for young households is higher still, which is consistent with simulation studies conducted by Gourinchas & Parker (2002) showing that precaution is the most important saving motive for younger households.