Saud A. Amer

Remote Sensing for Grassland Management in the Arid Southwest

Abstract We surveyed a group of rangeland managers in the Southwest about vegetation monitoring needs on grassland. Based on their responses, the objective of the RANGES (Rangeland Analysis Utilizing Geospatial Information Science) project was defined to be the accurate conversion of remotely sensed data (satellite imagery) to quantitative estimates of total (green and senescent) standing cover and biomass on grasslands and semidesert grasslands. Although remote sensing has been used to estimate green vegetation cover, in arid grasslands herbaceous vegetation is senescent much of the year and is not detected by current remote sensing techniques. We developed a ground truth protocol compatible with both range management requirements and Landsats 30 m resolution imagery. The resulting ground-truth data were then used to develop image processing algorithms that quantified total herbaceous vegetation cover, height, and biomass. Cover was calculated based on a newly developed Soil Adjusted Total Vegetation Index (SATVI), and height and biomass were estimated based on reflectance in the near infrared (NIR) band. Comparison of the remotely sensed estimates with independent ground measurements produced r2 values of 0.80, 0.85, and 0.77 and Nash Sutcliffe values of 0.78, 0.70, and 0.77 for the cover, plant height, and biomass, respectively. The approach for estimating plant height and biomass did not work for sites where forbs comprised more than 30% of total vegetative cover. The ground reconnaissance protocol and image processing techniques together offer land managers accurate and timely methods for monitoring extensive grasslands. The time-consuming requirement to collect concurrent data in the field for each image implies a need to share the high fixed costs of processing an image across multiple users to reduce the costs for individual rangeland managers.

Water, Food, and Energy Security: An Elusive Search for Balance in Central Asia

The development and use of water resources in the Amu Darya Basin remain under debate in the face of increasing population and associated scarcities in water, food, and energy. The upstream riparian, the mountain nation of Tajikistan, wishes to develop its hydropower potential. Three downstream states wish to sustain or increase their economic benefits from water used for irrigation. Growing tensions among the riparian countries on the Vakhsh River, a tributary of Amu Darya, have halted development of Tajikistan’s proposed Rogun Dam. This paper examines the potential for mutually beneficial water development and allocation of water resources to sustain demands for water, food, and energy. Using long-term data on the Basin’s energy potential, water supplies, irrigated land, and crop water demands, this paper analyzes total economic welfare for a future 20-year time horizon. Two water supply scenarios for each of two policy choices are examined. Results show that a constrained economic optimization operation of the Dam has the potential to increase farm income for each riparian country, while producing considerable benefits in hydropower for Tajikistan. Political negotiation among the riparian states and much better data will be needed to discover and implement potential gains indicated by this study.

Water allocation rules in Afghanistan for improved food security

In many arid countries, rules for the allocation of irrigation water when shortages occur are poorly defined. These weaknesses present a critical constraint to food security and can be a major cause of poverty and hunger. The search for flexible rules for the allocation of irrigation water is especially important in dry regions of the developing world where drought and climate change compound the challenges faced by farmers, extension advisers, water managers and governments. Afghanistan is one country in which inflexible arrangements for allocating irrigation water when drought occurs continue to undermine its food security. This paper develops and applies an empirical framework to evaluate several arrangements for the allocation of irrigation water when shortages occur. The intent of the analysis is to identify a water allocation system for sharing shortages that minimizes the loss in economic benefits and food security by efficiently sharing water supplies when the inevitable drought occurs. An integrated decision framework for water resources is developed that unifies crop, water, and farm data. Several water allocation rules that could increase the flexibility of irrigated agriculture in dealing with water shortages are analyzed for their impacts on farm profitability and food security. Findings show that a proportional sharing of water shortages, in which each canal bears an equal proportion of overall shortages, is the most flexible rule among those analyzed for limiting threats to food security and farm income. This water sharing arrangement is also seen as fair in many cultures and is simple to administer. In the developing world, the design and practical implementation of flexible rules for adapting to periodic water supply changes are important as water shortages become more pronounced in the face of droughts and climate variability. The results provide a framework for identifying, designing, and implementing water allocation rules for food security in the developing world’s irrigated areas.

Reducing conflict in development and allocation of transboundary rivers

This article explores opportunities for water scarcity to motivate neighboring nations in transboundary basins to cooperate in the development and allocation of water. Climate change raises the importance of discovering foundations for this cooperation. We examine the development of infrastructure and allocation of water in the controversial Amu Darya Basin. An analysis is presented that characterizes politically constrained and economically optimized water-use patterns in the basin. Using information on the basin’s energy potential, water supplies, land area, crop water requirements, and crop economics, we analyze total basin-wide economic welfare over a 20 year period. Results show that the development and operation of the planned Rogun Dam has the potential to secure agricultural benefits downstream for Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, while supplying some winter power upstream in Tajikistan in normal water conditions. Results show that the ongoing conflict in the Amu Darya Basin over water infrastructure and allocation has the potential to be resolved in a way to secure economic gains for all four nations. However, patient and difficult political negotiations will be required to achieve the gains indicated. Данная работа исследует возможности мотивации соседних стран для взаимодействия в развитии и распределении воды по причине дефицита водных ресурсов в трансграничных бассейнах. Изменение климата повышает важность нахождения основ для такого рода кооперации. Мы исследовали развитие инфраструктуры распределения воды в противоречивом бассейне реки Амударья. Рассмотренный анализ характеризует политически ограниченное и экономически оптимизированное распределение воды в бассейне. Используя данные по энергопотенциалу, имеющимся водным и земельным ресурсам, потребностям сельскохозяйственных культур в воде и экономике сельскохозяйственных культур, мы провели анализ совокупного экономического благосостояния в бассейне реки на 20-летний период. Результаты показывают, что функционирование Рогунского водохранилища имеет потенциал для обеспечения сельскохозяйственных выгод для стран низовья: Афганистана, Узбекистана и Туркменистана, в то же время обеспечивая некоторое количество зимней энергии для расположенного выше по течению Таджикистана в годы с нормальной водообеспеченностью. Результаты показывают, что текущий конфликт в бассейне реки Амударья за водную инфраструктуру и распределение имеет потенциал разрешиться путем экономического выигрыша для всех четырех стран. Однако, требуется терпение и сложные политические переговоры чтобы достичь указанных выигрышей.