Sayan Cheepudomwit

A Risk Score for Predicting Incident Diabetes in the Thai Population

OBJECTIVE—The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a risk score to predict people at high risk of diabetes in Thailand. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—A Thai cohort of 2,677 individuals, aged 35–55 years, without diabetes at baseline, was resurveyed after 12 years. Logistic regression models were used to identify baseline risk factors that predicted the incidence of diabetes; a simple model that included only those risk factors as significant (P < 0.05) when adjusted for each other was developed. The coefficients from this model were transformed into components of a diabetes score. This score was tested in a Thai validation cohort of a different 2,420 individuals. RESULTS—A total of 361 individuals developed type 2 diabetes in the exploratory cohort during the follow-up period. The significant predictive variables in the simple model were age, BMI, waist circumference, hypertension, and history of diabetes in parents or siblings A cutoff score of 6 of 17 produced the optimal sum of sensitivity (77%) and specificity (60%). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.74. Adding impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance status to the model slightly increased the AUC to 0.78; adding low HDL cholesterol and/or high triglycerides barely improved the model. The validation cohort demonstrated similar results. CONCLUSIONS—A simple diabetes risk score, based on a set of variables not requiring laboratory tests, can be used for early intervention to delay or prevent the disease in Thailand. Adding impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance or triglyceride and HDL cholesterol status to this model only modestly improves the predictive ability.

Risk Factors for Development of Decreased Kidney Function in a Southeast Asian Population: A 12-Year Cohort Study

End-stage kidney disease has become an increasing burden in all regions of the world. However, limited epidemiologic data on chronic kidney disease in Southeast Asian populations are available. Therefore, a cohort study over a period of 12 yr (1985 to 1997) in 3499 employees of the Electric Generation Authority of Thailand, aged 35 to 55 yr, was conducted to determine the prevalence of decreased kidney function and risk factors associated with future development of decreased kidney function. The prevalence of decreased kidney function (GFR <60 ml/min) increased from 1.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3 to 2.1) in 1985 to 6.8% (95% CI, 5.7 to 7.9) in 1997, and the prevalence of elevated serum creatinine was 6.1% (95% CI, 5.3 to 6.9) and 16.9% (95% CI, 15.3 to 18.5) in 1985 and 1997 surveys, respectively. The adjusted odds ratio for future development of decreased kidney function was 2.57 (1.0 to 6.81) for systolic hypertension (>159 mmHg), 1.82 (1.12 to 2.98) for hyperuricemia (>6.29 mg/dl), 1.68 (1.02 to 2.77) for elevated body mass index (>24.9 kg/m(2)) compared with subjects with systolic BP <140 mmHg, serum uric acid <4.5 mg/dl, and body mass index 20.8 to 22.8 kg/m(2). The rising prevalence of decreased kidney function in this population resulted mainly from the increasing prevalence of the risk factors in the population. Screening to detect decreased kidney function and early intervention to modify the associated risk factors should be considered in otherwise healthy individuals. Future studies are also necessary to determine whether implementation of these measures results in a reduction of ESRD incidence in the population.

The impact of different GFR estimating equations on the prevalence of CKD and risk groups in a Southeast Asian cohort using the new KDIGO guidelines

BackgroundRecently, the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) group recommended that patients with CKD should be assigned to stages and composite relative risk groups according to GFR (G) and proteinuria (A) criteria. Asians have among the highest rates of ESRD in the world, but establishing the prevalence and prognosis CKD is a problem for Asian populations since there is no consensus on the best GFR estimating (eGFR) equation. We studied the effects of the choice of new Asian and Caucasian eGFR equations on CKD prevalence, stage distribution, and risk categorization using the new KDIGO classification.MethodsThe prevalence of CKD and composite relative risk groups defined by eGFR from with Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI); standard (S) or Chinese(C) MDRD; Japanese CKD-EPI (J-EPI), Thai GFR (T-GFR) equations were compared in a Thai cohort (n = 5526)ResultsThere was a 7 fold difference in CKD3-5 prevalence between J-EPI and the other Asian eGFR formulae. CKD3-5 prevalence with S-MDRD and CKD-EPI were 2 - 3 folds higher than T-GFR or C-MDRD. The concordance with CKD-EPI to diagnose CKD3-5 was over 90% for T-GFR or C-MDRD, but they only assigned the same CKD stage in 50% of the time. The choice of equation also caused large variations in each composite risk groups especially those with mildly increased risks. Different equations can lead to a reversal of male: female ratios. The variability of different equations is most apparent in older subjects. Stage G3aA1 increased with age and accounted for a large proportion of the differences in CKD3-5 between CKD-EPI, S-MDRD and C-MDRD.ConclusionsCKD prevalence, sex ratios, and KDIGO composite risk groupings varied widely depending on the equation used. More studies are needed to define the best equation for Asian populations.

Effects of glomerular filtration rate estimating equations derived from different reference methods on staging and long term mortality risks of chronic kidney disease in a Southeast Asian cohort.

There are limited data on the risks of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Southeast Asian populations. Several GFR estimating equations have been developed in diverse Asian populations, but they produce markedly discrepant results. We investigated the impact of Asian equations on the mortality risk of CKD in a Thai cohort during long term follow‐up, and explored the differences between equations grouped according to the reference GFR methods used to develop them.

Effects of GFR estimating equations derived from different reference methods on staging and long term mortality risks of chronic kidney disease in a Southeast Asian cohort

There are limited data on the risks of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Southeast Asian populations. Several GFR estimating equations have been developed in diverse Asian populations, but they produce markedly discrepant results. We investigated the impact of Asian equations on the mortality risk of CKD in a Thai cohort during long term follow‐up, and explored the differences between equations grouped according to the reference GFR methods used to develop them.