Scott Cole

Games in the Arctic: applying game theory insights to Arctic challenges

We illustrate the benefits of game theoretic analysis for assisting decision-makers in resolving conflicts and other challenges in a rapidly evolving region. We review a series of salient Arctic issues with global implications—managing open-access fisheries, opening Arctic areas for resource extraction and ensuring effective environmental regulation for natural resource extraction—and provide insights to help reach socially preferred outcomes. We provide an overview of game theoretic analysis in laymans terms, explaining how game theory can help researchers and decision-makers to better understand conflicts, and how to identify the need for, and improve the design of, policy interventions. We believe that game theoretic tools are particularly useful in a region with a diverse set of players ranging from countries to firms to individuals. We argue that the Arctic Council should take a more active governing role in the region by, for example, dispersing information to “players” in order to alleviate conflicts regarding the management of common-pool resources such as open-access fisheries and natural resource extraction. We also identify side payments—that is, monetary or in-kind compensation from one party of a conflict to another—as a key mechanism for reaching a more biologically, culturally and economically sustainable Arctic future. By emphasizing the practical insights generated from an academic discipline, we present game theory as an influential tool in shaping the future of the Arctic—for individual researchers, for inter-disciplinary research and for policy-makers themselves.

Arctic games: an analytical framework for identifying options for sustainable natural resource governance

Abstract Changes in the Arctic are fuelled by a variety of drivers, including global warming, economic growth, improved access to natural resources, technological advances and globalisation processes. Further, the region is characterised by a diverse set of international agreements, national legislations and common pool resources. This presents challenges for actors to suggest, evaluate and agree on sustainable development alternatives. We propose an analytical framework to better understand (1) the types of trade-offs associated with Arctic futures and (2) actors’ incentives for strategic behaviour. In the framework, game theory illuminates incentives and strategies among actors, cost-benefit analysis and economic valuation of ecosystem services help identify socially desirable outcomes and institutional analysis provides insight on how governance structures can support or interfere with policy intervention. We apply the proposed framework by analysing possible oil development futures for Lofoten in Northern Norway. For example, institutional analysis and estimates of costs and benefits of reducing oil spill risk and their distribution among actors are used for discussing incentive structures, including the use of side payments as a mechanism to mitigate conflicting interests.

Economic values from the natural and cultural heritage in the Nordic countries

Natural and cultural heritage represent key assets that deliver different kind of benefits to citizens in the Nordic countries. This report illustrates the economic values at stake and discusses the important and inevitable key trade-offs facing decision-makers charged with managing these assests. The report has three goals: to briefly describe existing conservation measures in the Nordic countries, to illustrate the type and magnitude of economic values generated by these measures, and to discuss key trade-offs and policy implications arising from the selection of measures, which lead to welfare impacts depending on the level of human use. The valuation studies reviewed in the report demonstrate real economic values associated with the experiences that natural and cultural heritage provides both in terms of increased welfare and regional economic impacts.

Environmental compensation : Key conditions for increased and cost effective application

Environmental impacts are increasing due to human activities. The overuse of the benefits nature provides us is the direct result of our failure to put a price on these benefits. One way of address ...

The Remede Project: A Useful Framework for Assessing Non-Market Damages from Oil Spills?

As vessel traffic in the Baltic increases, in particular oil transports from Russia to the international market, so too does the risk of oil spills which above the environmental impacts impose costs on society including direct costs, market costs and non-market costs (e.g., losses in welfare from a damaged environment not easily valued in a market). While financial compensation addresses direct and market costs, environmental compensation (compensatory restoration) offsets welfare declines from the loss of resources or the services they provide. Although a clear international system for recovering environmental restoration costs from oil spills is still un-established, the EUs Environmental Liability Directive (ELD) from 2007 introduces a number of useful terms and concepts that may be applicable in the Baltic context. The European Commission (EC) funded development of the REMEDE Toolkit to help Member States carry out the ELD requirements. The Toolkit provides a useful framework for assessing non-market costs associated with oil spill damages by defining the types of ecological losses suffered by the public and providing interdisciplinary methods for scaling resource-based compensation projects whose cost should be incurred by the responsible polluter(s). This paper suggests that the ELD concepts and REMEDE methods could be transferred to the Baltic to help authorities recover environmental restoration costs from responsible polluters. We illustrate application of REMEDE-like concepts and methods to oil spill damages in the context of US regulations and the UN Compensation Commission and discuss the legal acceptance of these methods. The fact that the ELD cannot legally be invoked to address an oil spill in Europe should not preclude a discussion about how these relatively new European legal concepts, including the REMEDE methodology, could be used to establish a more consistent, transparent, and replicable framework for damage assessment in the sensitive marine environment of the Baltic Sea.