Scott E. Ingram

Linking futures across scales : a dialog on multiscale scenarios

Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on experiences in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, we suggest that the desired degree of cross-scale linkage depends on the primary aim of the scenario exercise. Loosely linked multiscale scenarios appear more appropriate when the primary aim is to engage in exploratory dialog with stakeholders. Tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios seem to work best when the main objective is to further our understanding of cross-scale interactions or to assess trade-offs between scales. The main disadvantages of tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios are that their development requires substantial time and financial resources, and that they often suffer loss of credibility at one or more scales. The reasons for developing multiscale scenarios and the expectations associated with doing so therefore need to be carefully evaluated when choosing the desired degree of cross-scale linkage in a particular scenario exercise.

Climate challenges, vulnerabilities, and food security

Significance Climate-induced disasters are impacting human well-being in ever-increasing ways. Disaster research and management recognize and emphasize the need to reduce vulnerabilities, although extant policy is not in line with this realization. This paper assesses the extent to which vulnerability to food shortage, as a result of social, demographic, and resource conditions at times of climatic challenge, correlates with subsequent declines in social and food security. Extreme climate challenges are identified in the prehispanic US Southwest and historic Norse occupations of the North Atlantic Islands. Cases with such different environmental, climatic, demographic, and cultural and social traditions allow us to demonstrate a consistent relationship between vulnerability and consequent social and food security conditions, applicable in multiple contexts. This paper identifies rare climate challenges in the long-term history of seven areas, three in the subpolar North Atlantic Islands and four in the arid-to-semiarid deserts of the US Southwest. For each case, the vulnerability to food shortage before the climate challenge is quantified based on eight variables encompassing both environmental and social domains. These data are used to evaluate the relationship between the “weight” of vulnerability before a climate challenge and the nature of social change and food security following a challenge. The outcome of this work is directly applicable to debates about disaster management policy.

Sustainable Small-Scale Agriculture in Semi-Arid Environments

For at least the past 8000 years, small-scale farmers in semi-arid environments have had to mitigate shortfalls in crop production due to variation in precipitation and stream flow. To reduce their vulnerability to a shortfall in their food supply, small-scale farmers developed short-term strategies, including storage and community-scale sharing, to mitigate inter-annual variation in crop production, and long-term strategies, such as migration, to mitigate the effects of sustained droughts. We use the archaeological and paleoclimatic records from A.D. 900-1600 in two regions of the American Southwest to explore the nature of variation in the availability of water for crops, and the strategies that enhanced the resilience of prehistoric agricultural production to climatic variation. Drawing on information concerning contemporary small-scale farming in semi-arid environments, we then suggest that the risk coping and mitigation strategies that have endured for millennia are relevant to enhancing the resilience of contemporary farmers’ livelihoods to environmental and economic perturbations.

Hohokam Exchange and Early Classic Period Organization in Central Arizona: Focal Villages or Linear Communities?

Abstract Settlement pattern data in the lower Salt River valley of central Arizona, near Phoenix, have led to different models of Hohokam political community organization during the early Classic period (ca. A.D. 1150–1300). The “focal village” model posits political communities centered on a single large village with monumental architecture surrounded by smaller settlements. The “linear community” model envisions an elongated arrangement integrating populations distributed along the routes of irrigation canals. Each model has implications for the nature of cooperation within and between settlement clusters and the degree to which large-scale irrigation management influenced the development of Hohokam community organization. In this analysis, ceramic sourcing studies are used to outline networks of interaction to examine the different models. Our results provide some evidence for a crosscutting patchwork of geographically dispersed social groups which fits most comfortably within the linear community model.

STREAMFLOW AND POPULATION CHANGE IN THE LOWER SALT RIVER VALLEY OF CENTRAL ARIZONA, ca. A.D. 775 to 1450

Floods and droughts and their effects on Hohokam canal systems and irrigation agriculture play a prominent role in many cultural-historical interpretations of the Hohokam trajectory in the lower Salt River valley (modern-day Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area). Catastrophic floods and associated geomorphic stream channel changes may have contributed to settlement and population changes and the substantial depopulation of the lower Salt River valley ca. A.D. 1450 or later. In this study, archaeological data on Hohokam domestic architecture is used to infer changes in prehistoric population growth rates from ca. A.D. 775 through 1450 in the most thoroughly documented canal system in the Salt River valley. Changes in growth rates are compared to the retrodictions of annual streamflow discharge volumes derived from tree-ring records. Contrary to expectations, population growth rates increased as the frequency, magnitude, and duration of inferred flooding, drought, and variability increased. These results challenge existing assumptions regarding the relationship among floods and droughts, conditions for irrigation agriculture, and population change in the lower Salt River valley.

Southwestern Archaeology Beyond Archaeology: Past, Present, and Future

This article is an argument for and about the benefits of Southwestern archaeology beyond archaeology. Beyond archaeology are the consumers of Southwestern archaeological research: the scientific community, the general public, the legal system, the arts and liberal arts, descendant communities, and policy-makers. We identify some key historical contributions to these consumers and opportunities for continuing our engagement. This history provides numerous insights about the value, uses, and misuses of our work. Toward our goal of informing and energizing progress toward increasing benefits to consumers, we identify global-scale research domains (climate change, food security, migration, etc.) where Southwestern archaeologists are uniquely prepared to extend the benefits of Southwestern archaeology beyond archaeology. Extending these benefits is both an opportunity and an emerging responsibility.