Scott M. Nelson

Cohort Profile: The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children: ALSPAC mothers cohort

Summary The Avon Longitudinal Study of Children and Parents (ALSPAC) was established to understand how genetic and environmental characteristics influence health and development in parents and children. All pregnant women resident in a defined area in the South West of England, with an expected date of delivery between 1st April 1991 and 31st December 1992, were eligible and 13 761 women (contributing 13 867 pregnancies) were recruited. These women have been followed over the last 19–22 years and have completed up to 20 questionnaires, have had detailed data abstracted from their medical records and have information on any cancer diagnoses and deaths through record linkage. A follow-up assessment was completed 17–18 years postnatal at which anthropometry, blood pressure, fat, lean and bone mass and carotid intima media thickness were assessed, and a fasting blood sample taken. The second follow-up clinic, which additionally measures cognitive function, physical capability, physical activity (with accelerometer) and wrist bone architecture, is underway and two further assessments with similar measurements will take place over the next 5 years. There is a detailed biobank that includes DNA, with genome-wide data available on >10 000, stored serum and plasma taken repeatedly since pregnancy and other samples; a wide range of data on completed biospecimen assays are available. Details of how to access these data are provided in this cohort profile.

Association of Maternal Weight Gain in Pregnancy With Offspring Obesity and Metabolic and Vascular Traits in Childhood

Background— We sought to examine the association of gestational weight gain (GWG) and prepregnancy weight with offspring adiposity and cardiovascular risk factors. Methods and Results— Data from 5154 (for adiposity and blood pressure) and 3457 (for blood assays) mother-offspring pairs from a UK prospective pregnancy cohort were used. Random-effects multilevel models were used to assess incremental GWG (median and range of repeat weight measures per woman: 10 [1, 17]). Women who exceeded the 2009 Institute of Medicine-recommended GWG were more likely to have offspring with greater body mass index, waist, fat mass, leptin, systolic blood pressure, C-reactive protein, and interleukin-6 levels and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and apolipoprotein A1 levels. Children of women who gained less than the recommended amounts had lower levels of adiposity, but other cardiovascular risk factors tended to be similar in this group to those of offspring of women gaining recommended amounts. When examined in more detail, greater prepregnancy weight was associated with greater offspring adiposity and more adverse cardiovascular risk factors at age 9 years. GWG in early pregnancy (0 to 14 weeks) was positively associated with offspring adiposity across the entire distribution but strengthened in women gaining >500 g/wk. By contrast, between 14 and 36 weeks, GWG was only associated with offspring adiposity in women gaining >500 g/wk. GWG between 14 and 36 weeks was positively and linearly associated with adverse lipid and inflammatory profiles, with these associations largely mediated by the associations with offspring adiposity. Conclusions— Greater maternal prepregnancy weight and GWG up to 36 weeks of gestation are associated with greater offspring adiposity and adverse cardiovascular risk factors. Before any GWG recommendations are implemented, the balance of risks and benefits of attempts to control GWG for short- and long-term outcomes in mother and child should be ascertained.

A Validated Model of Serum Anti-Müllerian Hormone from Conception to Menopause

Background Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is a product of growing ovarian follicles. The concentration of AMH in blood may also reflect the non-growing follicle (NGF) population, i.e. the ovarian reserve, and be of value in predicting reproductive lifespan. A full description of AMH production up to the menopause has not been previously reported. Methodology/Principal Findings By searching the published literature for AMH concentrations in healthy pre-menopausal females, and using our own data (combined ) we have generated and robustly validated the first model of AMH concentration from conception to menopause. This model shows that 34% of the variation in AMH is due to age alone. We have shown that AMH peaks at age 24.5 years, followed by a decline to the menopause. We have also shown that there is a neonatal peak and a potential pre-pubertal peak. Our model allows us to generate normative data at all ages. Conclusions/Significance These data highlight key inflection points in ovarian follicle dynamics. This first validated model of circulating AMH in healthy females describes a transition period in early adulthood, after which AMH reflects the progressive loss of the NGF pool. The existence of a neonatal increase in gonadal activity is confirmed for females. An improved understanding of the relationship between circulating AMH and age will lead to more accurate assessment of ovarian reserve for the individual woman.

Maternal metabolism and obesity: modifiable determinants of pregnancy outcome

BACKGROUND Obesity among pregnant women is highly prevalent worldwide and is associated in a linear manner with markedly increased risk of adverse outcome for mother and infant. Obesity in the mother may also independently confer risk of obesity to her child. The role of maternal metabolism in determining these outcomes and the potential for lifestyle modification are largely unknown. METHODS Relevant studies were identified by searching PubMed, the metaRegister of clinical trials and Google Scholar without limitations. Sensitive search strategies were combined with relevant medical subject headings and text words. RESULTS Maternal obesity and gestational weight gain have a significant impact on maternal metabolism and offspring development. Insulin resistance, glucose homeostasis, fat oxidation and amino acid synthesis are all disrupted by maternal obesity and contribute to adverse outcomes. Modification of lifestyle is an effective intervention strategy for improvement of maternal metabolism and the prevention of type 2 diabetes and, potentially, gestational diabetes. CONCLUSIONS Maternal obesity requires the development of effective interventions to improve pregnancy outcome. Strategies that incorporate a detailed understanding of the maternal metabolic environment and its consequences for the health of the mother and the growth of the child are likely to identify the best approach.

Associations of Pregnancy Complications With Calculated Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Middle Age The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children

Background— The nature and contribution of different pregnancy-related complications to future cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its risk factors and the mechanisms underlying these associations remain unclear. Methods and Results— We studied associations of pregnancy diabetes mellitus, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, preterm delivery, and size for gestational age with calculated 10-year CVD risk (based on the Framingham score) and a wide range of cardiovascular risk factors measured 18 years after pregnancy (mean age at outcome assessment, 48 years) in a prospective cohort of 3416 women. Gestational diabetes mellitus was positively associated with fasting glucose and insulin, even after adjustment for potential confounders, whereas hypertensive disorders of pregnancy were associated with body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure, lipids, and insulin. Large for gestational age was associated with greater waist circumference and glucose concentrations, whereas small for gestational age and preterm delivery were associated with higher blood pressure. The association with the calculated 10-year CVD risk based on the Framingham prediction score was odds ratio 1.31 (95 confidence interval, 1.11–1.53) for preeclampsia and 1.26 (95 confidence interval, 0.95–1.68) for gestational diabetes mellitus compared with women without preeclampsia and without gestational diabetes mellitus, respectively. Conclusions— Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and pregnancy diabetes mellitus are independently associated with an increased calculated 10-year CVD risk. Preeclampsia may be the better predictor of future CVD because it was associated with a wider range of cardiovascular risk factors. Our results suggest that pregnancy may be an important opportunity for early identification of women at increased risk of CVD later in life.

Added value of ovarian reserve testing on patient characteristics in the prediction of ovarian response and ongoing pregnancy: an individual patient data approach

BACKGROUND Although ovarian reserve tests (ORTs) are frequently used prior to IVF treatment for outcome prediction, their added predictive value is unclear. We assessed the added value of ORTs to patient characteristics in the prediction of IVF outcome. METHODS An individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis from published studies was performed. Studies on FSH, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) or antral follicle count (AFC) in women undergoing IVF were identified and authors were contacted. Using random intercept logistic regression models, we estimated the added predictive value of ORTs for poor response and ongoing pregnancy after IVF, relative to patient characteristics. RESULTS We were able to collect 28 study databases, comprising 5705 women undergoing IVF. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) for female age in predicting poor response was 0.61. AFC and AMH each significantly improved the model fit (P-value <0.001). Moreover, almost a similar accuracy was reached using AMH or AFC alone (AUC 0.78 and 0.76, respectively). Combining the two tests, however, did not improve prediction (AUC 0.80, P = 0.19) of poor response. In predicting ongoing pregnancy after IVF, age was the best single predictor (AUC 0.57), and none of the ORTs added any value. CONCLUSIONS This IPD meta-analysis demonstrates that AFC and AMH clearly add to age in predicting poor response. As single tests, AFC and AMH both fully cover the prediction of poor ovarian response. In contrast, none of the ORTs add any information to the limited capacity of female age to predict ongoing pregnancy after IVF. The clinical usefulness of ORTs prior to IVF will be limited to the prediction of ovarian response.

Lipotoxicity in obese pregnancy and its potential role in adverse pregnancy outcome and obesity in the offspring

Increasing maternal obesity is a challenge that has an impact on all aspects of female reproduction. Lean and obese pregnant women gain similar fat mass, but lean women store fat in the lower-body compartment and obese women in central compartments. In the non-pregnant, central storage of fat is associated with adipocyte hypertrophy and represents a failure to adequately store excess fatty acids, resulting in metabolic dysregulation and ectopic fat accumulation (lipotoxicity). Obese pregnancy is associated with exaggerated metabolic adaptation, endothelial dysfunction and increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. We hypothesize that the preferential storage of fat in central rather than ‘safer’ lower-body depots in obese pregnancy leads to lipotoxicity. The combination of excess fatty acids and oxidative stress leads to the production of oxidized lipids, which can be cytotoxic and influence gene expression by acting as ligands for nuclear receptors. Lipid excess and oxidative stress provoke endothelial dysfunction. Oxidized lipids can inhibit trophoblast invasion and influence placental development, lipid metabolism and transport and can also affect fetal developmental pathways. As lipotoxicity has the capability of influencing both maternal endothelial function and placental function, it may link maternal obesity and placentally related adverse pregnancy outcomes such as miscarriage and pre-eclampsia. The combination of excess/altered lipid nutrient supply, suboptimal in utero metabolic environment and alterations in placental gene expression, inflammation and metabolism may also induce obesity in the offspring.

Associations of gestational weight gain with maternal body mass index, waist circumference, and blood pressure measured 16 y after pregnancy: the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)

Background: Little is known about associations of gestational weight gain (GWG) with long-term maternal health. Objective: We aimed to examine associations of prepregnancy weight and GWG with maternal body mass index (BMI; in kg/m2), waist circumference (WC), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) 16 y after pregnancy. Design: This is a prospective study in 2356 mothers from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)—a population-based pregnancy cohort. Results: Women with low GWG by Institute of Medicine recommendations had a lower mean BMI (−1.56; 95% CI: −2.12, −1.00) and WC (−3.37 cm; −4.91, −1.83 cm) than did women who gained weight as recommended. Women with a high GWG had a greater mean BMI (2.90; 2.27, 3.52), WC (5.84 cm; 4.15, 7.54 cm), SBP (2.87 mm Hg; 1.22, 4.52 mm Hg), and DBP (1.00 mm Hg; −0.02, 2.01 mm Hg). Analyses were adjusted for age, offspring sex, social class, parity, smoking, physical activity and diet in pregnancy, mode of delivery, and breastfeeding. Women with a high GWG had 3-fold increased odds of overweight and central adiposity. On the basis of estimates from random-effects multilevel models, prepregnancy weight was positively associated with all outcomes. GWG in all stages of pregnancy was positively associated with later BMI, WC, increased odds of overweight or obesity, and central adiposity. GWG in midpregnancy (19–28 wk) was associated with later greater SBP, DBP, and central adiposity but only in women with a normal prepregnancy BMI. Conclusions: Results support initiatives aimed at optimizing prepregnancy weight. Recommendations on optimal GWG need to balance contrasting associations with different outcomes in both mothers and offspring.

Predicting Live Birth, Preterm Delivery, and Low Birth Weight in Infants Born from In Vitro Fertilisation: A Prospective Study of 144,018 Treatment Cycles

Using the HFEA database of all 144,018 live births in all IVF cycles in the UK between 2003 and 2007, Scott Nelson and Debbie Lawlor show that couple- and treatment-specific factors can be used to help predict successful outcome following IVF.

Can anti-mullerian hormone predict the diagnosis of polycystic ovary syndrome? A systematic review and meta-analysis of extracted data

CONTEXT Existing biochemical tests for polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) have poor sensitivity and specificity. Many women with PCOS have high anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentrations; thus, this may be a useful addition to the diagnostic criteria. OBJECTIVE A systematic literature review was performed to assess the true accuracy of AMH in the prediction of PCOS and to determine the optimal diagnostic threshold. DATA SOURCES Published and gray literature were searched for all years until January 2013. STUDY SELECTION Observational studies defining PCOS according to the Rotterdam criteria and assessing the value of AMH in diagnosing PCOS were selected. Ten studies of the initial 314 hits reporting AMH values in the diagnosis of PCOS were included in the meta-analysis and the construction of the summary receiver-operating characteristic curve. Four studies that plotted individual AMH serum levels of women with PCOS and controls on graphs were selected for individual data extraction. DATA EXTRACTION Two researchers independently assessed the abstracts resulted from the initial search against the inclusion criteria, graded the papers for selection and verification biases, and selected the papers that assessed the value of AMH in diagnosing PCOS. Data were extracted from 4 studies with the plotted individual data on graphs with the help of computer software. DATA SYNTHESIS The meta-analysis of the extracted data demonstrated the specificity and sensitivity in diagnosing PCOS in the symptomatic women of 79.4% and 82.8%, respectively, for a cutoff value of AMH of 4.7 ng/mL. The area under the curve was 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.83-0.92), identical with the area under the curve of 0.87 for the summary receiver-operating characteristic curve involving 10 separate studies. CONCLUSIONS AMH may be a useful initial diagnostic test for PCOS subject to validation in prospective population cohorts.