Scott M. Osprey

The Effect of a Well-Resolved Stratosphere on Surface Climate: Differences between CMIP5 Simulations with High and Low Top Versions of the Met Office Climate Model

AbstractThe importance of using a general circulation model that includes a well-resolved stratosphere for climate simulations, and particularly the influence this has on surface climate, is investigated. High top model simulations are run with the Met Office Unified Model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These simulations are compared to equivalent simulations run using a low top model differing only in vertical extent and vertical resolution above 15 km. The period 1960–2002 is analyzed and compared to observations and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis dataset. Long-term climatology, variability, and trends in surface temperature and sea ice, along with the variability of the annular mode index, are found to be insensitive to the addition of a well-resolved stratosphere. The inclusion of a well-resolved stratosphere, however, does improve the impact of atmospheric teleconnections on surface climate, in particular the response to El Ni...

An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind jets in the equatorial stratosphere (approximately 16 to 50 kilometers altitude), was unexpectedly disrupted in February 2016. An unprecedented westward jet formed within the eastward phase in the lower stratosphere and cannot be accounted for by the standard QBO paradigm based on vertical momentum transport. Instead, the primary cause was waves transporting momentum from the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the disruption, but analogous QBO disruptions are seen very occasionally in some climate simulations. A return to more typical QBO behavior within the next year is forecast, although the possibility of more frequent occurrences of similar disruptions is projected for a warming climate.

Stratospheric Variability in Twentieth-Century CMIP5 Simulations of the Met Office Climate Model: High Top versus Low Top

AbstractAn examination is made of stratospheric climate, circulation, and variability in configurations of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 (HadGEM2) differing only in stratospheric resolution and the placement of the model lid. This is made in the context of historical reconstructions of twentieth-century climate. A reduction in the westerly bias in the Northern Hemisphere polar night jet is found in the high-top model. The authors also find significant differences in the expression of tropical stratospheric variability, finding improvements in the high-top model for the presence of the quasi-biennial oscillation, for tropical upwelling consistent with interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data, and for interannual changes in stratospheric water vapor concentration comparable to satellite observations. Further differences are seen at high latitudes during winter in the frequency of occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SS...

A comparison of temperature and precipitation responses to different Earth radiation management geoengineering schemes

Earth radiation management has been suggested as a way to rapidly counteract global warming in the face of a lack of mitigation efforts, buying time and avoiding potentially catastrophic warming. We compare six different radiation management schemes that use surface, troposphere, and stratosphere interventions in a single climate model in which we projected future climate from 2020 to 2099 based on RCP4.5. We analyze the surface air temperature responses to determine how effective the schemes are at returning temperature to its 1986–2005 climatology and analyze precipitation responses to compare side effects. We find crop albedo enhancement is largely ineffective at returning temperature to its 1986–2005 climatology. Desert albedo enhancement causes excessive cooling in the deserts and severe shifts in tropical precipitation. Ocean albedo enhancement, sea-spray geoengineering, cirrus cloud thinning, and stratospheric SO2 injection have the potential to cool more uniformly, but cirrus cloud thinning may not be able to cool by much more than 1 K globally. We find that of the schemes potentially able to return surface air temperature to 1986–2005 climatology under future greenhouse gas warming, none has significantly less severe precipitation side effects than other schemes. Despite different forcing patterns, ocean albedo enhancement, sea-spray geoengineering, cirrus cloud thinning, and stratospheric SO2 injection all result in large scale tropical precipitation responses caused by Hadley cell changes and land precipitation changes largely driven by thermodynamic changes. Widespread regional scale changes in precipitation over land are significantly different from the 1986–2005 climatology and would likely necessitate significant adaptation despite geoengineering.

The Effect of Climate Change on the Variability of the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex

AbstractWith extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex being a key link for stratosphere–troposphere influences, its evolution into the twenty-first century is important for projections of changing surface climate in response to greenhouse gases. Variability of the stratospheric vortex is examined using a state-of-the-art climate model and a suite of specifically developed vortex diagnostics. The model has a fully coupled ocean and a fully resolved stratosphere. Analysis of the standard stratospheric zonal mean wind diagnostic shows no significant increase over the twenty-first century in the number of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) from its historical value of 0.7 events per decade, although the monthly distribution of SSWs does vary, with events becoming more evenly dispersed throughout the winter. However, further analyses using geometric-based vortex diagnostics show that the vortex mean state becomes weaker, and the vortex centroid is climatologically more equatorward by up to 2.5°, ...

Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes.

Abstract It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme “Maunder Minimum‐like” grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12% compared to a reference Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause (∼1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.2 K. The impact on global mean near‐surface temperature is small (∼−0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern Hemisphere wintertime, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to ∼3–4 m s−1, with the largest changes occurring in January–February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian Low at the surface and an increase in blocking over Northern Europe and the North Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude eddy‐driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution from a top‐down pathway for solar‐climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200–320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st century could have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate.

The atmospheric charged kaon/pion ratio using seasonal variation methods

Observed since the 1950’s, the seasonal effect on undergrou nd muons is a well studied phenomenon. The interaction height of incident cosmic rays changes as the temperature of the atmosphere changes, which affects the production height of mesons (mostly pions and kaons). The decay of these mesons produces muons that can be detected underground. The production of muons is dominated by pion decay, and previous work did not include the effect of kaons. In this work, the methods of Barrett and MACRO are extended to include the effect of kaons. These efforts give rise to a new method to measure the atmospheric K/� ratio at energies beyond the reach of current fixed target exp eriments. These methods were applied to data from the MINOS far detector. A method is developed for making these measurements at other underground detectors, including OPERA, Super-K, IceCube, Baksan and the MINOS near detector.

Cross-validation of HIRDLS and COSMIC radio-occultation retrievals, particularly in relation to fine vertical structure

The High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) instrument was launched on the NASA Aura satellite in July 2004. HIRDLS is a joint project between the UK and USA, and is a mid-infrared limb emission sounder designed to measure the concentrations of trace species, cloud and aerosol, and temperature and pressure variations in the Earths atmosphere from the upper troposphere to the mesosphere. The instrument is intended to make measurements at both high vertical and horizontal spatial resolutions, but validating those measurements is difficult because few other measurements provide that vertical resolution sufficiently closely in time. However, the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC suite of radio occultation satellites that exploit the U.S. GPS transmitters to obtain high resolution (~1 km) temperature profiles in the stratosphere does provide sufficient profiles nearly coincident with those from HIRDLS. Comparisons show a good degree intercorrelation between COSMIC and HIRDLS down to about 2 km resolution, with similar amplitudes for each, implying that HIRDLS and COSMIC are able to measure the same small scale features. The optical blockage that occurred within HIRDLS during launch does not seem to have affected this capability.

A dynamical systems explanation of the Hurst effect and atmospheric low-frequency variability

The Hurst effect plays an important role in many areas such as physics, climate and finance. It describes the anomalous growth of range and constrains the behavior and predictability of these systems. The Hurst effect is frequently taken to be synonymous with Long-Range Dependence (LRD) and is typically assumed to be produced by a stationary stochastic process which has infinite memory. However, infinite memory appears to be at odds with the Markovian nature of most physical laws while the stationarity assumption lacks robustness. Here we use Lorenzs paradigmatic chaotic model to show that regime behavior can also cause the Hurst effect. By giving an alternative, parsimonious, explanation using nonstationary Markovian dynamics, our results question the common belief that the Hurst effect necessarily implies a stationary infinite memory process. We also demonstrate that our results can explain atmospheric variability without the infinite memory previously thought necessary and are consistent with climate model simulations.

A possible mechanism for in situ forcing of planetary waves in the summer extratropical mesosphere

An examination of zonal asymmetries in meridional momentum flux reaching the mesosphere is made using the Hines Doppler spread parameterization of gravity waves. As expected a general correspondence is seen between wave one wind in the stratosphere and wave one signals in gravity wave momentum flux leaving the stratosphere. However, a significant difference is the presence of wave one features in the gravity-wave momentum flux at 56 km and ∼70°N during mid-summer which contrast with minimal signals in stratospheric wave one wind. The prominence of this feature is accounted for by a significant wave one Brunt-Vaisala feature at the tropopause amplifying a wave one signal in momentum flux which can then propagate to great heights. Such a feature could result in mesospheric planetary waves which are coupled to the tropopause forcing without intervening planetary wave signals in the stratosphere.