Scott R. Loarie

The velocity of climate change

The ranges of plants and animals are moving in response to recent changes in climate. As temperatures rise, ecosystems with ‘nowhere to go’, such as mountains, are considered to be more threatened. However, species survival may depend as much on keeping pace with moving climates as the climate’s ultimate persistence. Here we present a new index of the velocity of temperature change (km yr-1), derived from spatial gradients (°C km-1) and multimodel ensemble forecasts of rates of temperature increase (°C yr-1) in the twenty-first century. This index represents the instantaneous local velocity along Earth’s surface needed to maintain constant temperatures, and has a global mean of 0.42 km yr-1 (A1B emission scenario). Owing to topographic effects, the velocity of temperature change is lowest in mountainous biomes such as tropical and subtropical coniferous forests (0.08 km yr-1), temperate coniferous forest, and montane grasslands. Velocities are highest in flooded grasslands (1.26 km yr-1), mangroves and deserts. High velocities suggest that the climates of only 8% of global protected areas have residence times exceeding 100 years. Small protected areas exacerbate the problem in Mediterranean-type and temperate coniferous forest biomes. Large protected areas may mitigate the problem in desert biomes. These results indicate management strategies for minimizing biodiversity loss from climate change. Montane landscapes may effectively shelter many species into the next century. Elsewhere, reduced emissions, a much expanded network of protected areas, or efforts to increase species movement may be necessary.

Angiosperm wood structure: Global patterns in vessel anatomy and their relation to wood density and potential conductivity

Woody stems comprise a large biological carbon fraction and determine water transport between roots and leaves; their structure and function can influence both carbon and hydrological cycles. While angiosperm wood anatomy and density determine hydraulic conductivity and mechanical strength, little is known about interrelations across many species. We compiled a global data set comprising two anatomical traits for 3005 woody angiosperms: mean vessel lumen area (Ā) and number per unit area (N). From these, we calculated vessel lumen fraction (F = ĀN) and size to number ratio (S = Ā/N), a new vessel composition index. We examined the extent to which F and S influenced potential sapwood specific stem conductivity (K(S)) and wood density (D; dry mass/fresh volume). F and S varied essentially independently across angiosperms. Variation in K(S) was driven primarily by S, and variation in D was virtually unrelated to F and S. Tissue density outside vessel lumens (D(N)) must predominantly influence D. High S should confer faster K(S) but incur greater freeze-thaw embolism risk. F should also affect K(S), and both F and D(N) should influence mechanical strength, capacitance, and construction costs. Improved theory and quantification are needed to better understand ecological costs and benefits of these three distinct dimensions.

On population growth near protected areas.

Background Protected areas are the first, and often only, line of defense in efforts to conserve biodiversity. They might be detrimental or beneficial to rural communities depending on how they alter economic opportunities and access to natural resources. As such, protected areas may attract or repel human settlement. Disproportionate increases in population growth near protected area boundaries may threaten their ability to conserve biodiversity. Methodology/Principal Findings Using decadal population datasets, we analyze population growth across 45 countries and 304 protected areas. We find no evidence for population growth near protected areas to be greater than growth of rural areas in the same country. Furthermore, we argue that what growth does occur near protected areas likely results from a general expansion of nearby population centers. Conclusions/Significance Our results contradict those from a recent study by Wittemyer et al., who claim overwhelming evidence for increased human population growth near protected areas. To understand the disagreement, we re-analyzed the protected areas in Wittemyer et al.s paper. Their results are simply artifacts of mixing two incompatible datasets. Protected areas may experience unusual population pressures near their edges; indeed, individual case studies provide examples. There is no evidence, however, of a general pattern of disproportionate population growth near protected areas.

Strong response of an invasive plant species (Centaurea solstitialis L.) to global environmental changes

Global environmental changes are altering interactions among plant species, sometimes favoring invasive species. Here, we examine how a suite of five environmental factors, singly and in combination, can affect the success of a highly invasive plant. We introduced Centaurea solstitialis L. (yellow starthistle), which is considered by many to be Californias most troublesome wildland weed, to grassland plots in the San Francisco Bay Area. These plots experienced ambient or elevated levels of warming, atmospheric CO2, precipitation, and nitrate deposition, and an accidental fire in the previous year created an additional treatment. Centaurea grew more than six times larger in response to elevated CO2, and, outside of the burned area, grew more than three times larger in response to nitrate deposition. In contrast, resident plants in the community responded less strongly (or did not respond) to these treatments. Interactive effects among treatments were rarely significant. Results from a parallel mesocosm experiment, while less dramatic, supported the pattern of results observed in the field. Taken together, our results suggest that ongoing environmental changes may dramatically increase Centaureas prevalence in western North America.

Emerging Technologies to Conserve Biodiversity

Technologies to identify individual animals, follow their movements, identify and locate animal and plant species, and assess the status of their habitats remotely have become better, faster, and cheaper as threats to the survival of species are increasing. New technologies alone do not save species, and new data create new problems. For example, improving technologies alone cannot prevent poaching: solutions require providing appropriate tools to the right people. Habitat loss is another driver: the challenge here is to connect existing sophisticated remote sensing with species occurrence data to predict where species remain. Other challenges include assembling a wider public to crowdsource data, managing the massive quantities of data generated, and developing solutions to rapidly emerging threats.

Remote analysis of biological invasion and the impact of enemy release

Escape from natural enemies is a widely held generalization for the success of exotic plants. We conducted a large-scale experiment in Hawaii (USA) to quantify impacts of ungulate removal on plant growth and performance, and to test whether elimination of an exotic generalist herbivore facilitated exotic success. Assessment of impacted and control sites before and after ungulate exclusion using airborne imaging spectroscopy and LiDAR, time series satellite observations, and ground-based field studies over nine years indicated that removal of generalist herbivores facilitated exotic success, but the abundance of native species was unchanged. Vegetation cover <1 m in height increased in ungulate-free areas from 48.7% +/- 1.5% to 74.3% +/- 1.8% over 8.4 years, corresponding to an annualized growth rate of lambda = 1.05 +/- 0.01 yr(-1) (median +/- SD). Most of the change was attributable to exotic plant species, which increased from 24.4% +/- 1.4% to 49.1% +/- 2.0%, (lambda = 1.08 +/- 0.01 yr(-1)). Native plants experienced no significant change in cover (23.0% +/- 1.3% to 24.2% +/- 1.8%, lambda = 1.01 +/- 0.01 yr(-1)). Time series of satellite phenology were indistinguishable between the treatment and a 3.0-km2 control site for four years prior to ungulate removal, but they diverged immediately following exclusion of ungulates. Comparison of monthly EVI means before and after ungulate exclusion and between the managed and control areas indicates that EVI strongly increased in the managed area after ungulate exclusion. Field studies and airborne analyses show that the dominant invader was Senecio madagascariensis, an invasive annual forb that increased from < 0.01% to 14.7% fractional cover in ungulate-free areas (lambda = 1.89 +/- 0.34 yr(-1)), but which was nearly absent from the control site. A combination of canopy LAI, water, and fractional cover were expressed in satellite EVI time series and indicate that the invaded region maintained greenness during drought conditions. These findings demonstrate that enemy release from generalist herbivores can facilitate exotic success and suggest a plausible mechanism by which invasion occurred. They also show how novel remote-sensing technology can be integrated with conservation and management to help address exotic plant invasions.

Measuring population growth around tropical protected areas: current issues and solutions

Do people migrate toward parks, and if so, why? These long-standing questions in conservation are especially important in tropical regions. It is there that rural human populations intersect with some of the worlds greatest biodiversity, and protected areas are often the last line of defense in the fight to slow species extinctions. Detailed case studies have been the predominant source of insight into these issues, yet there has been a recent push for larger-scale analyses. Here we address the insufficiency of global datasets for answering global people-park questions. More than ever, it is of utmost importance that scientists get the correct answers when working at the intersection of human welfare and biodiversity conservation. Successful conservation of tropical biodiversity depends upon it.

Publish openly but responsibly

In their Perspective “Do not publish” (26 May, p. [800][1]), D. Lindenmayer and B. Scheele warn that publishing location data for rare, endangered, or newly described species could promote wildlife poaching, strain landholder relations, and accelerate habitat destruction. To prevent these