Seamus McErlean

Regional agricultural labour productivity convergence in China

Abstract This paper tests for regional agricultural labour productivity (ALP) convergence in China. The analysis indicates that ALP diverges between 1985 and 1992, but converges between 1992 and 2000. Further analysis shows that these findings can be explained by the different rates of agricultural out-migration in these two periods. We argue that these different rates of regional agricultural out-migration can be attributed to the different government policies and economic conditions before and after 1992. In particular, migrants from rural to urban areas found it easier to obtain both food and work in the post-1992 era.

Market efficiency in the reformed Chinese grain marketing system

Abstract Major reform of the Chinese grain marketing system took place between 1978 and 1985. A further series of reforms occurred between 1992 and 1994, with the objective of improving market efficiency through increased liberalisation and commercialisation of grain trade. However, some of the latter reforms were temporarily rescinded under what became known as ‘retrenchment.’ It is against this background that this paper tests the efficient market hypothesis in the Chinese wheat market. The analysis was carried out in the periods following the two series of reforms and indicates that the efficiency of the Chinese wheat market has improved over time.

Technology transfer in the Northern Ireland food processing sector

Technical progress and its adoption are recognized as probably the most important source of improvement in the productivity and competitiveness of firms in any industry. While progress is an essential prerequisite for the transfer of technology, focuses on the process of transfer itself prompted by a lack of research in this area within the Northern Ireland food‐processing industry. The analysis investigated innovation and identified a diffusion pattern for the uptake of innovations. It also obtained a measure for the rate of technology transfer and identified the principal factors influencing the process. The results indicated factors that could be used to accelerate the diffusion of new technologies as being the education levels of managers; RD and the profitability of the innovation. There was also a suggestion that the poultry and dairy sectors were more progressive than the others in their approach to business.

Do EU direct payments to beef producers belong in the ‘blue box’?

In the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, so-called ‘blue box’ support measures were exempted from reduction commitments, provided they were delivered under ‘production-limiting’ programs. Although classified as ‘blue box’, the EU system of direct payments (DP) to beef farmers imposes ‘claim-limiting’ restrictions rather than ‘production-limiting’ restrictions, allowing farmers to keep additional animals over and above the number upon which they are eligible to claim DP. The present paper provides empirical evidence that EU direct payments capitalise into the market prices of male calves and young steers in Ireland. It is also likely that DP capitalises into the prices of beef cows and heifers. Given this capitalisation process, some farmers can obtain ‘capitalised’ DP on animals produced over and above the ‘claim-limiting’ restrictions, by selling these animals through auction markets. Thus, ‘capitalised’ DP probably encourages production over and above the limiting measures.

Price skewness and the marketing of finished cattle.

Incomplete information about product quality generates risk for market participants. The amount of information and perceived risk varies between marketing channels and an agents attitude to this risk influences their choice of marketing channel. For risk-averse sellers, expected price and the associated price risk (dispersion) are relevant to their choice of marketing route. This paper examines how the choice of marketing channel by farmers selling finished cattle is influenced by their perceptions of expected market price and price variation. The study uses a unique dataset of “matched” animals, sold first in liveweight auction markets in Northern Ireland and subsequently to a meat packer. The findings indicate that price skewness also influences channel choice. The positive skewness exhibited by auction market prices combined with the negative skewness exhibited by meat packer prices may mean that some risk-averse individuals, faced with incomplete information about product quality, prefer the liveweight auction market to selling directly to meat packers lJEL Codes: Q110r.

The price schedule required to smooth seasonal milk supply

Develops a method for estimating the monthly milk price schedule needed to counter the effects of seasonality, which is an enduring feature of milk production in the UK. The issue of seasonality has been mostly ignored in studies estimating milk supply functions. In this paper milk supply functions which explicitly take account of seasonality are estimated for Northern Ireland and Scotland. Pre‐testing of monthly milk price and milk supply time‐series, using an extended HEGY test and an ADF test, indicated the presence of deterministic seasonality. Empirical milk supply models incorporating seasonal dummy variables to account for deterministic seasonality were estimated in the two regions of study. The results of these models were used to calculate the monthly producer milk price schedule required to encourage dairy farmers to produce an even monthly milk supply pattern. These calculations indicated that, in the long run, a peak‐to‐trough seasonal price differential of around 8 pence per litre would be required to produce an even pattern of milk supply in Scotland, and 11 pence per litre would be required in Northern Ireland.