Sean B. Cash

Fat taxes and thin subsidies: Prices, diet, and health outcomes

Abstract “Fat taxes” have been proposed as a way of addressing food-related health concerns. In this paper, we investigate the possible effects of “thin subsidies”, consumption subsidies for healthier foods. Empirical simulations, based on data from the Continuing Study of Food Intake by Individuals, are used to calculate the potential health benefits of subsidies on certain classes of fruits and vegetables in the United States. Estimates of the cost per statistical life saved through such subsidies compare favorably with existing U.S. government programs.

Taxing Food to Improve Health: Economic Evidence and Arguments

Many observers have suggested that tax policy can be used to change the relative prices of foods in ways that will produce desirable health outcomes. We briefly review the economic evidence regarding such claims, and discuss several conceptual and pragmatic issues surrounding the use of such interventions to achieve public health objectives.

Effects of Extreme Climate Events on Tea (Camellia sinensis) Functional Quality Validate Indigenous Farmer Knowledge and Sensory Preferences in Tropical China

Climate change is impacting agro-ecosystems, crops, and farmer livelihoods in communities worldwide. While it is well understood that more frequent and intense climate events in many areas are resulting in a decline in crop yields, the impact on crop quality is less acknowledged, yet it is critical for food systems that benefit both farmers and consumers through high-quality products. This study examines tea (Camellia sinensis; Theaceae), the worlds most widely consumed beverage after water, as a study system to measure effects of seasonal precipitation variability on crop functional quality and associated farmer knowledge, preferences, and livelihoods. Sampling was conducted in a major tea producing area of China during an extreme drought through the onset of the East Asian Monsoon in order to capture effects of extreme climate events that are likely to become more frequent with climate change. Compared to the spring drought, tea growth during the monsoon period was up to 50% higher. Concurrently, concentrations of catechin and methylxanthine secondary metabolites, major compounds that determine tea functional quality, were up to 50% lower during the monsoon while total phenolic concentrations and antioxidant activity increased. The inverse relationship between tea growth and concentrations of individual secondary metabolites suggests a dilution effect of precipitation on tea quality. The decrease in concentrations of tea secondary metabolites was accompanied by reduced farmer preference on the basis of sensory characteristics as well as a decline of up to 50% in household income from tea sales. Farmer surveys indicate a high degree of agreement regarding climate patterns and the effects of precipitation on tea yields and quality. Extrapolating findings from this seasonal study to long-term climate scenario projections suggests that farmers and consumers face variable implications with forecasted precipitation scenarios and calls for research on management practices to facilitate climate adaptation for sustainable crop production.

Border Enforcement and Firm Response in the Management of Invasive Species

This analysis presents a theoretical model of firm response to border enforcement and evaluates both the intended and unintended effects under two enforcement regimes: destruction versus treatment of contaminated shipments. The results indicate that importers may respond to increased inspection by reducing shipments and decreasing due care. In response to increased pest populations, firms may reduce shipments and increase due care, indicating that an enforcement response may not be necessary. The analysis reveals the importance of the nature of the due-care technology, as well as the relationships underlying the probability of detection, in determining the effects of enforcement.

Metabolite profiling of Camellia sinensis by automated sequential, multidimensional gas chromatography/mass spectrometry reveals strong monsoon effects on tea constituents.

Seasonal variation in tea (Camellia sinensis (L.) Kuntze; Theaceae) chemistry was investigated using automated sequential, multidimensional gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC-GC/MS). Metabolite libraries were produced for teas harvested from the Bulang Mountains in Yunnan, China before and after the onset of the East Asian Monsoon. A total of 201 spring and 196 monsoon metabolites were identified, with 169 common and 59 seasonally unique compounds. An additional 163 metabolites were detected but their identity could not be confirmed. Spectral deconvolution of GC/MS data was used to measure the relative concentrations in the teas. Within each family individual metabolite concentrations increased, decreased and stayed the same. The major constituents in both teas were linalool (28%), geraniol (13%), α-terpineol (10%), hotrienol (4%) and nerol (3%). This work provides the foundation to monitor seasonal variations of tea chemistry.

Effects of Water Availability and Pest Pressures on Tea (Camellia sinensis) Growth and Functional Quality

Extreme shifts in water availability linked to global climate change are impacting crops worldwide. This study examines effects of water availability and pest pressures on the growth and functional quality of tea, the worlds most consumed beverage after water. Results show that higher water availability and pest pressures significantly increased the growth of new leaves while their effect on tea quality varied with individual secondary metabolites. Findings point to the fascinating dynamics of climate change effects on tea plants with offsetting interactions between rainfall and pest pressures and the need for future climate studies to examine interactive environmental effects.

Canadian Chicken Industry: Consumer Preferences, Industry Structure and Producer Benefits from Investment in Research and Advertising

The Canadian chicken industry has operated under supply management since the mid-1970s. Canadian consumer preferences for chicken have grown dramatically since then possibly in response to concerns about health and the levels of fat and cholesterol in red meats. However Canadian consumers are also looking for convenience with their food purchases. Canadians are buying their chicken in frozen further processed forms, fresh by cut without skin and bone and in a variety of other different ways reflecting their unique willingness to pay for various attributes. There is also an increasing trend for retailers and processors to brand the fresh chicken product sold through grocery stores (for example, Maple Leaf Prime). The preferences Canadian consumer have for various chicken products, the prices they are comfortable paying and the strategies followed by processors/retailers can directly affect the outcomes of industry wide strategies such as investment in generic advertising and research or the impact of international market changes such as border closures. This research is an initial attempt to quantify Canadian consumer preferences – for fresh product by type – for product by level of processing – for chicken product by cut - for fresh chicken by brand - to examine the impact of substitutability on a variety of market shocks. The various different disaggregations of Canadian chicken consumption are used in a number of simulation models to illustrate how important preferences are to producer returns when there are market shocks. If Canadians found all chicken products available in the grocery store to be perfectly substitutable then previous policy analysis assuming chicken is one homogeneous product would be sufficient for industry policy analysis purposes. If Canadians view all the different chicken products as imperfectly substitutable and given that various chicken products are produced in relatively fixed proportions (white and dark meat, for example) further understanding of how consumers make their purchase decisions could enhance the industries ability to predict outcomes. For example, border closing to Canadian exports ( as a result of an Avian influenza outbreak, for example) would result in a significant increase in the dark meat products available for sale through Canadian grocery stores. The results presented in this research could provide a clue as to how much dark meat prices might decline while white meat prices might remain unaffected. The results reported suggest that at the consumer level, chicken fresh and frozen products are not perceived to be perfect substitutes, within a narrow category such as fresh chicken breasts, they are not perceived as even close substitutes, within the fresh category branded products such as those developed by Lilydale and Maple Leaf are not perceived as perfect substitutes. As well, an initial look at the demand for individual chicken products by household suggests that there is far from a common buying pattern across Canadian households, even within a single province. The results also suggest that health and convenience attributes are driving Canadian consumer preferences. Simulation results highlight the fact that pricing strategies followed by major processors/retailers within Canada can influence the returns to generic advertising and research. Further research could provide additional robust estimates of the chicken product substitutability existing in the Canadian market and an increased understanding of the market characteristics currently operating. The results presented here suggest that further work in this area is important for the chicken industry to pursue.

An Experimental Investigation of the Impact of Fat Taxes: Prices Effects, Food Stigma, and Information Effects on Economics Instruments to Improve Dietary Health

There is currently no published research on how food taxes may affect consumer behaviour when the imposition of the tax itself may be considered a source of consumer information. The work undertaken here seeks to address this gap in the literature by using experimental methods to enhance understanding on the joint effects of price changes induced by a fat tax and the stigma associated with the application of the tax. First, we conduct an interdisciplinary literature review (drawing from economics, psychology, and health promotion) and theoretical investigation of the impact of stigma on economic choice behaviours. We then employ Attribute-Based Stated Choice Methods (ABSCM) to elicit consumer response to fat tax scenarios that rely only on price changes, and to those that involve both price changes and stigma effects. The study is still ongoing, and will use a computer-assisted field data collection approach to collect data from participants at grocery stores and/or other food purchase venues. Econometric analysis of the resulting data will allow us to investigate the price response, stigma effect, and price-stigma interaction elicited by various taxation and labelling schemes. Preliminary results from pre-test samples are discussed here.

Children's purchase behavior in the snack market: Can branding or lower prices motivate healthier choices?

BACKGROUND Childrens dietary-related diseases and their associated costs have expanded dramatically in many countries, making childrens food choice a policy issue of increasing relevance. As children spend a considerable amount of money on energy-dense, nutrient-poor (EDNP) products, a better understanding of the main drivers of childrens independent food purchase decisions is crucial to move this behavior toward healthier options. OBJECTIVE The objective of the study is to investigate the role of branding and price in motivating children to choose healthier snack options. METHODS The study investigates snack choices of children ages 8 to 11, using a survey and a purchase experiment. The research took place in after-school programs of selected schools in the Boston area. Participants included 116 children. Products in the choice experiment differed on three factors: product type, brand, and price. Data were analyzed using aggregated and mixed logit models. RESULTS Childrens purchase decisions are primarily determined by product type (Importance Value (IV) 56.6%), while brand (IV 22.8%) and price (IV 20.6%) prove to be of less relevance. Only those children who state that they like the familiar brand reveal a preference for the branded product in their purchase decision. Price is a significant predictor of choice when controlling for whether or not children obtain an allowance. CONCLUSION It is not simple brand awareness but a childs liking of the brand that determines whether a brand is successful in motivating a child to choose a product. The extent of childrens experience with money influences their price responsiveness. To the extent that children who receive an allowance are primarily the ones buying food snacks, higher prices for EDNP snacks could be successful in motivating children to choose a healthier option.

Nutritional, Economic, and Environmental Costs of Milk Waste in a Classroom School Breakfast Program

Objectives To measure fluid milk waste in a US School Breakfast in the Classroom Program and estimate its nutritional, economic, and environmental effects. Methods Fluid milk waste was directly measured on 60 elementary school classroom days in a medium-sized, urban district. The US Department of Agriculture nutrition database, district cost data, and carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions and water footprint estimates for fluid milk were used to calculate the associated nutritional, economic, and environmental costs. Results Of the total milk offered to School Breakfast Program participants, 45% was wasted. A considerably smaller portion of served milk was wasted (26%). The amount of milk wasted translated into 27% of vitamin D and 41% of calcium required of School Breakfast Program meals. The economic and environmental costs amounted to an estimated