Sebastian Grauwin

The scaling of human interactions with city size

The size of cities is known to play a fundamental role in social and economic life. Yet, its relation to the structure of the underlying network of human interactions has not been investigated empirically in detail. In this paper, we map society-wide communication networks to the urban areas of two European countries. We show that both the total number of contacts and the total communication activity grow superlinearly with city population size, according to well-defined scaling relations and resulting from a multiplicative increase that affects most citizens. Perhaps surprisingly, however, the probability that an individuals contacts are also connected with each other remains largely unaffected. These empirical results predict a systematic and scale-invariant acceleration of interaction-based spreading phenomena as cities get bigger, which is numerically confirmed by applying epidemiological models to the studied networks. Our findings should provide a microscopic basis towards understanding the superlinear increase of different socioeconomic quantities with city size, that applies to almost all urban systems and includes, for instance, the creation of new inventions or the prevalence of certain contagious diseases.

Towards a Comparative Science of Cities: Using Mobile Traffic Records in New York, London, and Hong Kong

This chapter examines the possibility to analyze and compare human activities in an urban environment based on the detection of mobile phone usage patterns. Thanks to an unprecedented collection of counter data recording the number of calls, SMS, and data transfers resolved both in time and space, we confirm the connection between temporal activity profile and land usage in three global cities: New York, London, and Hong Kong. By comparing whole cities’ typical patterns, we provide insights on how cultural, technological, and economical factors shape human dynamics. At a more local scale, we use clustering analysis to identify locations with similar patterns within a city. Our research reveals a universal structure of cities, with core financial centers all sharing similar activity patterns and commercial or residential areas with more city-specific patterns. These findings hint that as the economy becomes more global, common patterns emerge in business areas of different cities across the globe, while the impact of local conditions still remains recognizable on the level of routine people activity.

Competition between collective and individual dynamics

Linking microscopic and macroscopic behavior is at the heart of many natural and social sciences. This apparent similarity conceals essential differences across disciplines: Although physical particles are assumed to optimize the global energy, economic agents maximize their own utility. Here, we solve exactly a Schelling-like segregation model, which interpolates continuously between cooperative and individual dynamics. We show that increasing the degree of cooperativity induces a qualitative transition from a segregated phase of low utility toward a mixed phase of high utility. By introducing a simple function that links the individual and global levels, we pave the way to a rigorous approach of a wide class of systems, where dynamics are governed by individual strategies.

Contraction of Online Response to Major Events

Quantifying regularities in behavioral dynamics is of crucial interest for understanding collective social events such as panics or political revolutions. With the widespread use of digital communication media it has become possible to study massive data streams of user-created content in which individuals express their sentiments, often towards a specific topic. Here we investigate messages from various online media created in response to major, collectively followed events such as sport tournaments, presidential elections, or a large snow storm. We relate content length and message rate, and find a systematic correlation during events which can be described by a power law relation—the higher the excitation, the shorter the messages. We show that on the one hand this effect can be observed in the behavior of most regular users, and on the other hand is accentuated by the engagement of additional user demographics who only post during phases of high collective activity. Further, we identify the distributions of content lengths as lognormals in line with statistical linguistics, and suggest a phenomenological law for the systematic dependence of the message rate to the lognormal mean parameter. Our measurements have practical implications for the design of micro-blogging and messaging services. In the case of the existing service Twitter, we show that the imposed limit of 140 characters per message currently leads to a substantial fraction of possibly dissatisfying to compose tweets that need to be truncated by their users.

Complex systems science: Dreams of universality, interdisciplinarity reality

Using a large database (∼215,000 records) of relevant articles, we empirically study the complex systems field and its claims to find universal principles applying to systems in general. The study of references shared by the articles allows us to obtain a global point of view on the structure of this highly interdisciplinary field. We show that its overall coherence does not arise from a universal theory, but instead from computational techniques and fruitful adaptations of the idea of self-organization to specific systems. We also find that communication between different disciplines goes through specific “trading zones,” i.e., subcommunities that create an interface around specific tools (a DNA microchip) or concepts (a network).

EFFECTIVE FREE ENERGY FOR INDIVIDUAL DYNAMICS

Physics and economics are two disciplines that share the common challenge of linking microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, while physics is based on collective dynamics, economics is based on individual choices. This conceptual difference is one of the main obstacles one has to overcome in order to characterize analytically economic models. In this paper, we build both on statistical mechanics and the game theory notion of Potential Function to introduce a rigorous generalization of the physicists free energy, which includes individual dynamics. Our approach paves the way to analytical treatments of a wide range of socio-economic models and might bring new insights into them. As first examples, we derive solutions for a congestion model and a residential segregation model.

Prediction limits of mobile phone activity modelling

Thanks to their widespread usage, mobile devices have become one of the main sensors of human behaviour and digital traces left behind can be used as a proxy to study urban environments. Exploring the nature of the spatio-temporal patterns of mobile phone activity could thus be a crucial step towards understanding the full spectrum of human activities. Using 10 months of mobile phone records from Greater London resolved in both space and time, we investigate the regularity of human telecommunication activity on urban scales. We evaluate several options for decomposing activity timelines into typical and residual patterns, accounting for the strong periodic and seasonal components. We carry out our analysis on various spatial scales, showing that regularity increases as we look at aggregated activity in larger spatial units with more activity in them. We examine the statistical properties of the residuals and show that it can be explained by noise and specific outliers. Also, we look at sources of deviations from the general trends, which we find to be explainable based on knowledge of the city structure and places of attractions. We show examples how some of the outliers can be related to external factors such as specific social events.

The potential of interdisciplinary in MOOC research: how do education and computer science intersect?

Given that both computer scientists and educational researchers publish on the topic of massive open online courses (MOOCs), the research community should analyze how these disciplines approach the same topic. In order to promote productive dialogue within the community, we report on a bib-liometrics study of the growing MOOC literature and examine the potential interdisciplinarity of this research space. Drawing from 3,380 bibliographic items retrieved from Scopus, we conducted descriptive analyses on publication years, publication sources, disciplinary categories of publication sources, frequent keywords, leading authors, and cited references. We applied bibliographic coupling and network analysis to further investigate clusters of research topics in the MOOC literature. We found balanced representation of education and computer science within most topic clusters. However, integration could be further improved on, for example, by enhancing communication between the disciplines and broadening the scope of methods in specific studies.