Sebastjan Strasek

Cyclical patterns in aggregate economic activity of Slovene economy

This paper studies cyclic patterns in the Slovene economy with spectral analysis. It examines if the transition in Slovenia was marked by a statistically significant movement of aggregate economic activity, which corresponds to the definition of business cycle proposed by Mitchell and Burns (1946). It finds that in the period 1992–2000 a statistically significant cyclic component is present. The cyclic component oscillates with the frequency of 33.3 months. The results obtained in this paper suggest, that in the observed period two full-length cycles can be identified.

Are some cultures more favourable for social entrepreneurship than others

Abstract The goal of this paper is to examine whether certain national cultural dimensions facilitate or hamper social entrepreneurship. The paper offers a conceptualisation of the possible associations between Hofstede’s cultural dimensions and social entrepreneurial activity as defined by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, along with its empirical testing across more than 40 countries around the world. Based on correlation analysis that was controlled for the countries’ level of economic development, there appears to be a negative association between the national power distance level and social entrepreneurial activity. In addition, the rate of young social entrepreneurial ventures is associated with lower levels of masculinity. The cultural dimensions of individualism and uncertainty avoidance have no direct linear association with social entrepreneurial activities of any kind. In factor-driven economies, lower levels of masculinity appear to support the development of social entrepreneurship. On the other hand, in innovation-driven economies, social entrepreneurial ventures emerge more often in those cultures characterised by short-term orientation and indulgence.

Is there a random character in a stock market? Some evidence from a small emerging market

In the last decade, the financial industry in Slovenia developed rapidly. Nevertheless, the capital market is, according to our findings, still not efficient. However, the dynamic analysis in our study shows that the market is rapidly approaching the properties of developed markets. By adopting these properties, the Slovenian market will give additional boost to the economic activity and also make it more attractive for small firms. The main challenge for small business is to use these favourable trends and to represent an additional stimulation for further concentration of ownership in the companies listed on the stock exchange.

Productivity and Economic Growth in the European Union: Impact of Investment in Research and Development

Abstract This paper focuses on investment in research and development as a factor of labour productivity and economic growth. Our analysis confirms the link between expenditure for research and development (expressed in % of GDP) and labour productivity (expressed in the number of hours worked) based on selected data for EU Member States in the period 1995-2013. A causal link between variables of the concave parabola was confirmed, and the value of expenditure for research and development (2.85% of EU GDP) maximising productivity (per hour of work) was determined based on the examined data. In accordance with these findings, EU’s target of reaching 3% of GDP spent on research and development to be achieved by 2020 seems in support of reaching maximum productivity in the EU.

From Subprime and Eurozone Crisis with Full Speed into the Next Financial Crisis

Abstract This paper offers an analysis of the road from subprime and eurozone crisis to the elements of a new systemic crisis. Our aim is to research common issues that accompany each of these crises and to explore elements that hint that the financial systems are moving toward a new crisis. By holding short-term interest rates near zero, the central banks have encouraged malinvestment and speculation. Fuelling the bubble is the fear of missing out on trade. We find that actual events and movements on security markets follow a typical pattern, which indicates a serious threat for the next financial crisis. We also find enough signs that old crises lessons haven’t been learned.

Spread and Liquidity Issues: A markets comparison

Abstract The financial crises are closely connected with spread changes and liquidity issues. After defining and addressing spread considerations, we research in this paper the topic of liquidity issues in times of economic crisis. We analyse the liquidity effects as recorded on spreads of securities from different markets. We stipulate that higher international risk aversion in times of financial crises coincides with widening security spreads. The paper then introduces liquidity as a risk factor into the standard value-at-risk framework, using GARCH methodology. The comparison of results of these models suggests that the size of the tested markets does not have a strong effect on the models. Thus, we find that spread analysis is an appropriate tool for analysing liquidity issues during a financial crisis.

TRP Ratio and the Black–Litterman Portfolio Optimisation Method

This article proposes a new way of using publically available information in order to outperform the market. We suggest that, under the assumption that “target-to-real ratio” is stationary, it could be implemented in several trading and/or portfolio optimization techniques. We use target price to develop TRP ratio and implement this information into the optimization models. We use deviation from the mean reverted TRP ratio to indicate future potential of the stock. Our portfolio outperformed the best-performing benchmark by more than 25% and returned 47% ROI in the challenging market conditions.

Behavioural patterns as determinants of market movements: evidence from an emerging market

This article aims to empirically support the hypothesis that behavioural patterns are key determinants of market movements. We developed a model for predicting market psychology which is based on the application of a self-organizing network algorithm. The estimated model is applied to a mechanical trading system, which independently adopts investment decisions based on the current daily data. The model was tested on the data for daily trading on the Slovenian stock market as an example of an emerging capital market. The performance of the model supports the suggested hypothesis.