Seckin Citak

A Physics-based Monte Carlo Earthquake Disaster Simulation Accounting for Uncertainty in Building Structure Parameters

Abstract Physics-based earthquake disaster simulations are expected to contribute to high-precision earthquake disaster prediction; however, such models are computationally expensive and the results typically contain significant uncertainties. Here we describe Monte Carlo simulations where 10,000 calculations were carried out with stochastically varied building structure parameters to model 3,038 buildings. We obtain the spatial distribution of the damage caused for each set of parameters, and analyze these data statistically to predict the extent of damage to buildings.

Geometry and segmentation of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Marmara Sea, Turkey, deduced from long-term ocean bottom seismographic observations

Both the geometry and the depth of the seismogenic zone of the North Anatolian Fault under the Marmara Sea (the Main Marmara Fault (MMF)) are poorly understood, in part because of the faults undersea location. We recorded 10 months of microseismic data with a dense array of ocean bottom seismographs and then applied double-difference relocation and 3-D tomographic modeling to obtain precise hypocenters on the MMF beneath the central and western Marmara Sea. The hypocenters show distinct lateral changes along the MMF: (1) both the upper and lower crust beneath the Western High are seismically active and the maximum focal depth reaches 26 km; (2) seismic events are confined to the upper crust beneath the region extending from the eastern part of the Central Basin to the Kumburgaz Basin; and (3) the magnitude and direction of dip of the main fault change under the Central Basin, where there is also an abrupt change in the depth of the lower limit of the seismogenic zone. We attribute this change to a segment boundary of the MMF. Our data show that the upper limit of the seismogenic zone corresponds to sedimentary basement. We also identified several seismically inactive regions within the upper crust along the MMF; their spatial extent beneath the Kumburgaz Basin is greater than beneath the Western High. From the comparison with seafloor extensometer data, we consider that these regions might indicate zones of strong coupling that are accumulating stress for release during future large earthquakes.

Focal mechanism determinations of earthquakes along the North Anatolian fault, beneath the Sea of Marmara and the Aegean Sea

We determined the centroid moment tensor (CMT) solutions of earthquakes that occurred along the North Anatolian fault (NAF) beneath the Sea of Marmara and the Aegean Sea, using data obtained from Turkey’s broad-band seismograph network. The CMT solution of the 2014 Aegean Sea earthquake (Mw 6.9) represents a strike-slip fault, consistent with the geometry of the NAF, and the source-time function indicates that this event comprised several distinct subevents. Each subevent is considered to have ruptured a different fault segment. This observation indicates the existence of a mechanical barrier, namely a NAF segment boundary, at the hypocenter. CMT solutions of background seismicity beneath the Aegean Sea represent strike-slip or normal faulting along the NAF or its branch faults. The tensional axes of these events are oriented northeast–southwest, indicating a transtensional tectonic regime. Beneath the Sea of Marmara, the CMT solutions represent mostly strike-slip faulting, consistent with the motion of the NAF, but we identified a normal fault event with a tensional axis parallel to the strike of the NAF. This mechanism indicates that a pull-apart basin, marking a segment boundary of the NAF, is developing there. Because ruptures of a fault system and large earthquake magnitudes are strongly controlled by the fault system geometry and fault length, mapping fault segments along NAF can help to improve the accuracy of scenarios developed for future disastrous earthquakes in the Marmara region.