Seçkin Polat

A fuzzy cognitive map approach for effect-based operations: An illustrative case

This paper proposes the use of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) as a technique for supporting the decision-making process in effect-based planning. The goal is to determine alternative courses of action to realize the aims of an operation, and choose the best option among them. With adequate consideration of the problem features and the constraints governing the method used, an FCM is developed to model effect-based operations (EBOs). In this study, certain features that do not exist in the classical FCM method were added to our FCM concept value calculation algorithm; these include influence possibility, influence duration, dynamic influence value-changing, and influence permanence. The model developed was applied to an illustrative scenario involving military planning, and we comment on the usefulness of the proposed methodology.

An integrated method for designing modular products

Many recent modular design methods and approaches have focused on the modularization process – decomposition and composition. This paper suggests an integrated methodology that includes additional tools and stages for a complete modular architecture design. The borders of the modular design process are expanded by adding strategic issues, appropriateness to modularity, degree of modularity and modularity strategies, in an operationalized manner. The methodology presents a “requirements analysis‐ decomposition‐composition‐design evaluation” structure. The “modularization process” is designed so as to choose from three different perspectives – customer‐based, function‐based and structure‐based design. To test and validate the methodology it was applied to a domestic gas detector product family. As a result, a new modular product architecture with eight modules was developed.

Scenario-driven modular design in managing market uncertainty

Many organisational environments are far from equilibrium. The strategic flexibilities of modular product designs can help organisations prepare for an uncertain future, but managers must develop ways to imagine possible futures in order to use such flexibilities to respond to them. This paper discusses a scenario-based approach to anticipating and responding to uncertain futures by developing modular products that increase a firms chances of succeeding in multiple alternative futures. After introducing the theoretical basis of this study, a structured approach to operationalising the generation of future scenarios and the development of modular product designs is developed. The approach consists of four stages: (1) the generation of scenarios about future market needs, (2) the translation of those needs into goals for modular designs, (3) the modular design process itself and (4) the evaluation of the modular design process. The modular design process we discuss is a function-based design approach that is form independent and thus allows joint consideration of future market needs and the product functions that can serve those needs. We illustrate our proposed approach by applying it to generate scenarios and modular design criteria for the Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) market in the security equipment sector in Turkey.

Comparison of fuzzy and crisp systems via system dynamics simulation

Abstract This paper compares fuzzy and classical decision rules. The hypothesis of this paper is that whether one of these rules is superior depends on the situation. For that comparison the paper uses system dynamics (SD), which models the behavior of systems including human beings. This comparison was made for a simple heating system that is controlled by a human operator. Under various changes of external and internal parameters, the results are that the major differences between fuzzy and crisp systems emerge at extreme values of these parameters. In conclusion, the superiority of crisp rules or fuzzy rules in a decision-making environment depends on the situation.

SCENARIO-BASED COMPETENCE DESIGNATION

This paper presents an approach for developing critical skills necessary for competition in the future. The study combines the methodology of designing scenarios with the methodology of defining competencies by a transition from future scenarios to skills, based on product scenarios. Product scenarios indicate concrete alternative future products that are key sources for identifying future skills. The approach has been applied to the security equipment sector in Turkey. The product, closed circuit television (CCTV) system is chosen to illustrate the process.

A simulation model for an urban fire fighting system

The purpose of the paper is to analyze the performance of a fire fighting system. Three basic parameters have been used during the simulation experiments: the number of fire fighting stations, the speed of fire fighting vehicles and the path coefficient (which represents the actual distances between the locations). Two performance criteria are chosen: the number of late arrivals, that is, the number of fire fighting interventions in which vehicles exceed the maximum allowable travelling times to arrive at the fire locations, and the average travelling time of vehicles to arrive at the fire locations. Based on experimentation with the model (i.e. 550 different simulation runs) it is observed that the fire fighting system has a similar performance response for each experiment.

Analyzing Actors' Relation for Apparel Industry Scenarios Using Mactor Method

It is very important to analyze the attitude and behavior of the actors toward to possible events in order to forecast the future realistically and to realize accurate strategies for Turkish apparel industry in today’s competitive environment. In this study, the impacts of the actors in developing future scenarios for Turkish apparel industry, were analyzed using the Mactor (Matrix of Alliances and Conflicts: Tactics, Objectives and Recommendations) method, which is the sub-module of Godet’s scenario planning method. At the end of the analysis, two different actor groups were revealed that similar attitudes and behaviors will be influential on the apparel industry. While one actor group will play a role by differentiating themselves; the other actor group has the tendency of continuing to produce low priced goods.

Modular design capability and product positioning: An integrative view

In this paper we discuss the relationship between the competence-based perspective and market positioning. We argue that a product, which as the ultimate expression of a firms competence reflects a firms distinctive competences, should have the potential to achieve a superior market position. We suggest how a specific capability of central importance in product creation – modular design capability – may help firms to achieve advantageous market positioning. In particular, we develop a framework for assessing the potential impact of modular design capability on customers’ perception of competing products in the market for mobile phone handsets.