Seev Neumann

DELPHI FORECASTING PROJECT

The physical sciences permit exact predictions. Newtons first law of mechanics predicts that a body in motion will remain in motion at constant speed and in the same direction unless acted on by some extemal force. In the social sciences, the process of arriving at predictions may be partly subjective, complicated by a lack of a credible body of experience and involved with uncertainty as to the course of variables that cannot be estimated. Thus, objective predictions in the social sciences are rare.