Selahattin Dibooglu

Relationships among U.S. oil prices and oil industry equity indices

Abstract The cointegration analysis suggests that the pure oil industry equity system and the mixed oil price/equity index system offers more opportunities for long-run portfolio diversification and less market integration than the pure oil price systems. On a daily basis, in the oil price systems all oil prices with the exception of the 3-month futures can explain the future movements of each other. In the mixed system, none of the daily oil industry stock indices can explain the daily future movements of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices, whereas these prices can explain the movements of independent companies engaged in exploration, refining, and marketing. The spillover analysis of oil volatility transmission suggests that the oil futures market has a matching or echoing volatility effect on the stocks of some oil sectors and a volatility-dampening effect on the stocks of others. The policy implication is that, during times of high oil volatility, traders should choose the S&P oil sector stocks that match their tolerance for volatility and use the right financial derivative to hedge against or profit from this volatility. The day effect for volatility transmission suggests that Friday has a calming effect on the volatility of oil stocks in general. The effect for Monday is not significant.

Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary

This paper examines Bradas (1998) conjecture about the path of real exchange rates in two successful transition economies, Hungary and Poland. He argues that, as a result of the very diverse fiscal and monetary policies to be found among these economies, real exchange rates in some economies should follow a path that mirrors mainly the effect of real shocks and others a path reflecting the monetary shocks. To test this hypothesis, we use a popular structural VAR model and, assuming long-run neutrality of nominal shocks, we decompose the real exchange rate and price movements into those attributable to real and nominal shocks. Using monthly data from 1990 to 1999 for Hungary and Poland, we find that nominal shocks had a major influence in explaining real exchange rate movements in Poland, while real shocks had a larger influence on real exchange rate movements in Hungary. Key words: real exchange rate, inflation, transition economies, structural VARs, exchange rate regimes, and exchange rate modeling.

Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity with Asymmetric Adjustment

Tests of purchasing power parity (PPP) that use panel data are more supportive of the theory than are bilateral tests. The article uses threshold cointegration to explore long-run PPP. Using data from the post-Bretton Woods period, we show that cointegration with threshold adjustment holds for a number of European countries on a bilateral basis. Focusing on France and Germany as base countries, we show that the error-correction model has important nonlinear characteristics in that prices and the exchange rate have markedly different adjustment patterns for positive gaps from PPP than negative gaps.

Real disturbances, relative prices and purchasing power parity

This paper tests a modified version of Purchasing Power Parity, which hypothesizes that real shocks that alter equilibrium relative prices between tradables and non-tradables are responsible for the deviations from purchasing power parity. Using cointegration/error-correction methods and quarterly data from the post Bretton Woods period, we find supportive evidence that productivity, government spending, and real world oil price might account for deviations from purchasing power parity.

Accounting for US current account deficits: an empirical investigation

The sources of US current account deficits are investigated using a number of macroeconomic variables and a vector error correction model. The variables are those typically emphasized by the traditional income - expenditure approach and the intertemporal (Ricardian) approach. The results indicate that macroeconomic variables explain the current account reasonably well, and the evidence seems to support the traditional approach where budget deficits and increases in real interest rates and terms of trade are associated with current account deficits.

Do real wages respond asymmetrically to unemployment shocks? Evidence from the U.S. and Canada

Using a set of cointegration and error correction models with asymmetric adjustment, this paper investigates aggregate labor market adjustment in the U.S. and Canada in the post-1973 period. Empirical results show real wages, productivity, and unemployment are cointegrated. Adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium seems to be linear for the U.S. and non-linear for Canada. The dynamic adjustment of real wages to unemployment and productivity shocks show markedly different responses to positive shocks than negative shocks in Canada. However adjustment in the U.S. is mostly symmetric. This difference between the U.S. and Canadian real wage responses may provide an answer to the recent divergence of unemployment rates between the U.S. and Canada.

Can Macroeconomic Indicators Predict a Currency Crisis? Evidence from Selected Southeast Asian Countries

This paper examines the probability of currency crises using a signal approach and a multivariate probit model. The results indicate that the signal approach can provide an effective warning system despite its nonparametric nature. The top three indicators that are useful in anticipating crises include international reserves, stock market indices, and gross domestic product (GDP), in that order. Excess money balances and the ratio of domestic credit to GDP are significant and have positive correlation with the probability of a crisis. The growth rate of exports and the stock indices are significant and have a negative relationship with a crisis probability. Overall, the results indicate that government policies, the macroeconomic environment, and investor panic/self-fulfilling expectations all play a role in the making of a crisis.

Long-Run Economic Growth: An Interdisciplinary Approach

Economic growth and development is a complicated process that falls into the domain of many disciplines in social sciences and humanities. It is natural then to study fundamental aspects of economic growth synthesizing research in relevant fields. In this short paper, we argue that this has rarely been the case in the economic growth literature. We briefly discuss past growth theories and empirics, and present a broad framework to compare and evaluate work on economic growth from an interdisciplinary perspective.

The Impact of the US and Japanese Economies on Korea and Malaysia after the Plaza Accord

This paper investigates the influence of the US and Japanese macroeconomic shocks on output in Korea and Malaysia before and after the Plaza Accord. This is done by using a cointegration/error-correction model in seven variables, consisting of world oil price, US and Japanese outputs and money supplies, domestic money and domestic output. Our results show that foreign shocks account for a higher proportion of output variability in Korea and Malaysia after the Plaza Accord. An interesting finding is that the influence of the US economy on Korea and Malaysia has declined while the Japanese influence has increased.

International Monetary Regimes and Incidence and Transmission of Macroeconomic Shocks: Evidence from the Bretton Woods and Modern Floating Periods

This paper investigates the relationship between international monetary regimes and incidence and transmission of macroeconomic shocks within the context of an open-economy macro model. Empirical results confirm monetary interdependence and lower incidence of monetary discretion under fixed exchange rates. The average magnitude and dispersion of supply shocks in Bretton Woods and the subsequent float is comparable; however, the average magnitude and dispersion of real demand shocks under Bretton Woods seems higher. Overall, the international monetary regime may pose important constraints to policymakers in open economies.