Selim Cagatay

Degree of environmental stringency and the impact on trade patterns

Purpose – To construct an index (index of environmental sensitivity performance) to be used in a cross-country trade model in order to analyze the effect of various degrees of environmental stringency on the trade patterns, and especially on the export performance of the countries. Design/methodology/approach – The gravity model of trade is used in order to find the effects of environmental stringency on the variation in trade flows. Findings – The study shows that environmental stringency has an important impact on the export of the countries. The impact of the degree of environmental stringency on the exports is significantly negative suggesting an inverse relationship between export values and relative environmental sensitivity performance of the nations. Originality/value – This study supports the argument that the environmental stringency level differential between developing and developed nations is a crucial criteria in terms of explaining shifts in the trade patterns and international specialization of the countries.

Commercial Release of First-Generation Genetically Modified Food Products in New Zealand: Using a Partial Equilibrium Trade Model to Assess the Impact on Producer Returns in New Zealand

In the present paper, the impact of genetically modified (GM) food production on producers, consumers and trade in New Zealand is simulated under various scenarios using the Lincoln Trade and Environment Model (LTEM). The LTEM simulates, against various assumptions of proportions of GM/GM-free production, the impact of various scenarios relating to preference for or against GM production. The results from this preliminary analysis show that the greatest positive impact on New Zealand income is from following a GM-free strategy, where it is assumed such markets as the European Union and Japan have a large switch in preference away from GM food, followed by the scenario when there is a 20% preference for GM-free.

Trade liberalisation and greenhouse gas emissions: the case of dairying in the European Union and New Zealand*

The link between trade and the environment has aroused considerable interest both in terms of the impact of trade liberalisation on the environment, and also the impact of environmental policy on production and trade. Of key environmental concern at present is global warming and its association with greenhouse gas emissions. Agriculture is a sector of the economy that both contributes to, and will be affected by, climate change. This paper models the impact of agricultural trade liberalisation on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture around the world, focusing particularly on the effects on New Zealand, a small economy highly dependent on agricultural trade. A partial equilibrium agricultural multicountry, multicommodity trade model is used for the analysis, extended to include physical production systems and their greenhouse gas emissions. Two simulations are performed: removal of agricultural policies in the EU and in all OECD countries. The results indicate that although producer returns in New Zealand increase, greenhouse gas emissions also increase significantly. EU producers face lower returns but also lower greenhouse gas emissions.

TRADE AND THE ENVIRONMENT: ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE LIBERALISATION

This paper presents a partial equilibrium model of dairy sector international trade which has been extended to include physical dairy production systems and their effect on water quality. This combined model, LTEM (Lincoln Trade and Environment Model), is then used to simulate the effects of liberalisation policies on trade flows, dairy production systems and groundwater nitrate levels across different countries. The results show expected variation in price and production impacts, but also varying effects on groundwater quality between and within countries. More specifically, whilst liberalisation lowers dairy production in the EU and reduces the EU nitrate pollution slightly, the balancing production increases elsewhere lead to marginally higher pollution in other countries. This is of policy relevance given contemporary debates about the likely net environmental effect of further trade liberalisation.