Selim Elekdag

The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies

This paper studies how financial stress, defined as periods of impaired financial intermediation, is transmitted from advanced to emerging economies using a new financial stress index for emerging economies. Previous financial crises in advanced economies passed through strongly and rapidly to emerging economies. The unprecedented spike in financial stress in advanced economies elevated stress across emerging economies above levels seen during the Asian crisis but with significant cross-country variation. The extent of pass-through of financial stress is related to the depth of financial linkages between advanced and emerging economies. Higher current account and fiscal balances do little to insulate emerging economies from the transmission of acute financial stress in advanced economies, although they may still help dampen the impact on the real economy.

Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries

This paper examines why some financial stress episodes lead to economic downturns. The paper identifies episodes of financial turmoil using a financial stress index (FSI), and proposes an analytical framework to assess the impact of financial stress-in particular banking distress-on the real economy. It concludes that financial turmoil characterized by banking distress is more likely to be associated with severe and protracted downturns than stress mainly in securities or foreign exchange markets. Economies with more arms-length financial systems appear to be particularly vulnerable to sharp contractions, due to the greater procyclicality of leverage in their banking systems.

The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey During the Global Financial Crisis

Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) decreased policy rates by an astounding 1025 basis points over the November 2008 to November 2009 period. In this context, this paper addresses the following broad question: If an inflation targeting framework underpinned by a flexible exchange rate regime was not adopted, how much deeper would the recent recession have been? Counterfactual experiments based on an estimated structural model provide quantitative evidence which suggests that the recession would have been substantially more severe. In other words, the interest rate cuts implemented by the CBRT and exchange rate flexibility both helped substantially soften the impact of the global financial crisis.

Rapid Credit Growth: Boon or Boom-Bust?

Episodes of rapid credit growth, especially credit booms, tend to end abruptly, typically in the form of financial crises. This paper presents the findings of a comprehensive event study focusing on 99 credit booms. Loose monetary policy stances seem to have contributed to the build-up of credit booms across both advanced and emerging economies. In particular, domestic policy rates were below trend during the pre-peak phase of credit booms and likely fuelled macroeconomic and financial imbalances. For emerging economies, while credit booms are associated with episodes of large capital inflows, international interest rates (a proxy for global liquidity) are virtually flat during these periods. Therefore, although external factors such as global liquidity conditions matter, and possibly increasingly so over time, domestic factors (especially monetary policy) also appear to be important drivers of real credit growth across emerging economies.

Balance Sheets, Exchange Rate Policy, and Welfare

The debate about the appropriate choice of exchange rate regime is fundamental in international economics. This paper develops a small open-economy model with balance sheet effects and compares the performance of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. The model is solved up to a second-order approximation which allows us to address the issue of risk and welfare rigorously. The paper identifies threshold levels of the debt-to-GDP ratio above which fixed exchange rate regimes are welfare superior to monetary policy rules that imply flexible exchange rate regimes. The results suggest that emerging market economies that suffer from a relatively high level of indebtedness and are constrained in their pursuit of optimal monetary policy, could find it beneficial to opt for a fixed exchange rate regime.

An Estimated Small Open Economy Model of the Financial Accelerator

This paper develops a small open economy model in which entrepreneurs partially finance investment using foreign currency-denominated debt subject to an external finance premium. We use Bayesian estimation techniques to evaluate the importance of balance sheet-related credit market frictions for emerging market countries by incorporating the financial accelerator mechanism. We obtain a sizable value for the external finance premium, which is tightly estimated away from zero. Our results support the inclusion of the financial accelerator in an otherwise standard model that-acting through balance sheets-magnifies the impact of shocks, thereby increasing real and financial volatility. Copyright 2006, International Monetary Fund

Rapid Credit Growth in Emerging Markets: Boon or Boom-Bust?

Episodes of rapid credit growth, especially credit booms, tend to end abruptly, typically in the form of financial crises. This paper presents the findings of a comprehensive event study focusing on sixty credit booms across emerging markets. The build-up of credit booms across emerging markets seems to be characterized by loose monetary policy stances, with domestic policy rates below trend during the prepeak phase of credit booms. While credit booms are associated with episodes of large capital inflows, international interest rates (a proxy for global liquidity) are virtually flat during these periods. Therefore, although external factors such as global liquidity conditions matter, and possibly increasingly so over time, domestic factors (especially monetary policy) also appear to be tightly associated with real credit growth across emerging markets.

Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart

This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new approach. The resulting spreadsheet, which implements the approach, is available upon request from the authors.

The Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages; Key Determinants and the Role of Policy

This paper examines how Asian financial linkages with systemic economies have changed over time. After developing a factor model, it estimates Asian financial sensitivities to systemic economies, and then seeks to uncover their key determinants, which include trade and financial linkages, as well as policies. In line with Asias growing role in the global economy - including through deeper financial integration - regional financial markets have become more sensitive to systemic economies. Asian financial sensitivities to systemic economies exhibit cyclical fluctuations, and reached historically high levels during the latest global financial crisis of 2008-09. While macroeconomic policy frameworks have helped Asian economies cope well with market turbulence, they cannot completely insulate Asian financial markets against major global financial shocks.

Did Korean Monetary Policy Help Soften the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009?

Korea was one of the Asian economies hardest hit by the global financial crisis. Anticipating the downturn that would follow the episode of extreme financial stress, the Bank of Korea (BOK) let the exchange rate depreciate as capital flowed out, and preemptively cut the policy rate by 325 basis points. But did it work? This paper seeks a quantitative answer to the following question: Were it not for an inflation targeting framework underpinned by a flexible exchange rate regime, how much deeper would the recession have been? Taking the most intense year of the crisis as our baseline (2008:Q4?2009:Q3), counterfactual simulations indicate that rather the actual outcome of a -2.1 percent contraction, the outturn would have been -2.9 percent if the BOK had not implemented countercyclical and discretionary interest rate cuts. Furthermore, had a fixed exchange rate regime been in place, simulations indicate that output would have contracted by -7.5 percent over the same four-quarter period. In other words, exchange rate flexibility and the interest rate cuts implemented by the BOK helped substantially soften the impact of the global financial crisis on the Korean economy. These counterfactual experiments are based on an estimated structural model, which, along with standard nominal and real rigidities, includes a financial accelerator mechanism in an open-economy framework.