Semyon A. Potryasaev

Advanced river flood monitoring, modelling and forecasting

Abstract The paper presents the state-of-the-art in flood forecasting and simulation applied to a river flood analysis and risk prediction. Different water flow forecasting and river simulation models and systems are analysed. An advanced river flood monitoring, modelling and forecasting approach is introduced. It extends the traditional approach based on modelling river physical processes by integration of different types of models and technologies such as input data clustering and filtering, digital maps of a relief and river terrain, data crowdsourcing, heterogeneous data processing, hydrological models for time scale modelling water flows and geo-simulation, inundation visualisation and duly warning on flooding. A case study on river flow forecasting and simulation for river flood risk analysis and management is given.

Application of Object-Oriented Simulation in Evolutionary Algorithms

In paper two-level genetic and ant algorithms are proposed to optimize the functioning of the automated technological machining complex. For suggested genetic and unt algorithms it is designed the object-oriented simulation model, which allows to calculate the fitness function and evaluate potential solutions. The problem-oriented crossover, mutation and reproduction operators for two-level genetic algorithm are developed. The transition and calculation of the concentration for synthetic pheromone rules are determined for suggested ant algorithms.

Development of intelligent information systems for operational river-flood forecasting

The structural framework and practical implementation of operational river flood forecasting systems, based on integrated use of state-of-the-art information technologies and hydrological simulation methods, are described. They exemplify the practical implementation of an interdisciplinary approach that uses broadly the Earth’s remote sensing data, service architecture–based forecasting systems, and an intelligent interface to select the type and adjust the parameters of hydrological models, providing the interpretation, user-friendly representation, and accessibility of forecast results as web services. A practical trial of the system’s prototype proved the possibility to obtain high-accuracy operational (from several hours to several days) forecasts for the inundation areas and depths of river valley sections.

Complex Objects Remote Sensing Forest Monitoring and Modeling

In this paper the concept of integrated modeling and simulation processes of the Complex Natural and Technological Object (CNTO) is presented. The main goal of the investigations consists in the practice of the predetermined modeling. The practice direction as the remote sensing forest monitoring is proposed by the authors. Here the methodical foundations of the integrated modeling and simulation, the process of CNTO operation, the technology of the remote sensing forest monitoring are considered. Principal concern is attended to the continuity of the model and object solving practical issues. More over results of CNTO remote sensing forest monitoring make it possible to adapt models of this system to changing environment conformably to the forest management.

Intelligent Telemetry Data Analysis of Small Satellites

The paper presents intelligent telemetry data analysis software module and methods of onboard equipment of small satellites. The suggested software module consists of feature selection, data preprocessing, clustering and predicting software components. The software components are based on the genetic algorithm based feature selection method, dynamic streaming clustering method, neural Kohonen self-organizing map and image processing based clustering and predicting methods for telemetry data of onboard equipment of small satellites. The computational experiments and testing of developed methods and software tools were performed on the processed telemetry data from the navigation device of onboard equipment of a small satellite and showed enough high efficiency and good results.

Creation of Intelligent Information Flood Forecasting Systems Based on Service Oriented Architecture

In this paper a new approach to the creation of short-term forecasting systems of river flooding is being further developed. It provides highly accurate forecasting results due to operative obtaining and integrated processing of the remote sensing and ground-based water flow data in real time. Forecasting of flood areas and depths is performed on a time interval of 12–48 h to be able to perform the necessary steps to alert and evacuate the population. Forecast results are available as web services. The proposed system extends the traditional separate methods based on satellite monitoring or modeling of a river’s physical processes, by using an interdisciplinary approach, integration of different models and technologies, and through intelligent choice of the most suitable models for a flood forecasting.

Intelligent Integrated Decision Support Systems for Territory Management

This study proposes a scientific and methodical approach to problem solving automation, and intellectualization of multi-criteria decision-making processes for territory management. The substantiation of the composition and structure of the Integrated Intelligent Decision Support System (IIDSS) in management areas is based on a methodology developed by the authors and technologies of proactive monitoring and management of the structural dynamics of complex objects.

Crowdsourcing Interactive Technology for Natural-Technical Objects Integrated Monitoring

This article discusses the possibility of combining modern social interactive technologies and the process of ground-space monitoring of natural and technical objects, as well as improving the efficiency and social importance of this process, by involving public representatives to the dissemination and use of the monitoring data. Specific information-analytical monitoring system is proposed in the paper. This system is based on suggested technology of remote sensing data as well as data of other sources with social information integration in the current context.

Automated Logical-Probabilistic Methodology and Software Tool as Component of the Complex of Methodologies and Software Tools for Evaluation of Reliability and Survivability of Onboard Equipment of Small Satellites

The paper presents solutions for current problems with estimation and analysis of indicators of reliability and survivability in onboard equipment (OE) of small satellites (SS) based on the logical-probabilistic approach to the reliability and survivability estimation of complex systems. There were developed modified logical-probabilistic method and software tool for evaluating the reliability and survivability of OE SS systems. The correctness of suggested method and software tool was shown by computational experiments on some systems of OE SS similar to Belarusian SS, later compared with “Arbitr” software complex results. The software tool was integrated into the complex of methodologies and software tools for evaluation, analysis and prediction of the values of reliability and survivability indicators of OE SS in local desktop and distributed web versions.

Program System for Solving Problems of Monitoring Social and Economic Development of Saint-Petersburg

One of the ways of modeling to be used is so called ‘visual modeling’. In turn, there are many visual approaches, and only one of them is to apply algorithmic networks. The paper gives a short introduction of the algorithmic network approach and the Cognitron system is based on this approach. Further, the article describes the algorithmic model “Development Evaluation of the Information Society” and the corresponding algorithmic networks, created based on the method of development evaluation of the information society in Saint-Petersburg, developed in St. Petersburg Information and Analytical Center. The program system for working with the model is described, which consists of the Cognitron-Service program and the Cognitron system.