Sepideh Modrek

Health consequences of the ‘Great Recession’ on the employed: Evidence from an industrial cohort in aluminum manufacturing

While the negative effects of unemployment have been well studied, the consequences of layoffs and downsizing for those who remain employed are less well understood. This study uses human resources and health claims data from a large multi-site fully insured aluminum company to explore the health consequences of downsizing on the remaining workforce. We exploit the variation in the timing and intensity of layoff to categorize 30 plants as high or low layoff plants. Next, we select a stably employed cohort of workers with history of health insurance going back to 2006 to 1) describe the selection process into layoff and 2) explore the association between the severity of plant level layoffs and the incidence of four chronic conditions in the remaining workforce. We examine four health outcomes: incident hypertension, diabetes, asthma/COPD and depression for a cohort of approximately 13,000 employees. Results suggest that there was an increased risk of developing hypertension for all workers and an increased risk of developing diabetes for salaried workers that remain at the plants with the highest level of layoffs. The hypertension results were robust to a several specification tests. In addition, the study design selected only healthy workers, therefore our estimates are likely to be a lower bound and suggest that adverse health consequences of the 2007-2009 recession may have affected a broader proportion of the population than previously expected.

Psychological Well-Being During the Great Recession: Changes in Mental Health Care Utilization in an Occupational Cohort

OBJECTIVES We examined the mental health effects of the Great Recession of 2008 to 2009 on workers who remained continuously employed and insured. METHODS We examined utilization trends for mental health services and medications during 2007 to 2012 among a panel of workers in the 25 largest plants, located in 15 states, of a US manufacturing firm. We used piecewise regression to compare trends from 2007 to 2010 in service and medication use before and after 2009, the year of mass layoffs at the firm and the peak of the recession. Our models accounted for changes in county-level unemployment rates and individual-level fixed effects. RESULTS Mental health inpatient and outpatient visits and the yearly supply of mental health-related medications increased among all workers after 2009. The magnitude of the increase in medication usage was higher for workers at plants with more layoffs. CONCLUSIONS The negative effects of the recession on mental health extend to employed individuals, a group considered at lower risk of psychological distress.

A review of health consequences of recessions internationally and a synthesis of the US response during the Great Recession.

The 2007 global economic recession was the most severe recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s in terms of declines in unemployment, labor force participation and gross domestic product in the United States. In order to guide future public health policies during economic downturns, we reviewed and synthesized the literature on the health consequences of the current and prior recessions focusing on the government response to the recession in the United States. We searched for primary literature in three academic and three policy databases using the indexed and free-text terms “recession”, “health”, “mortality”, “employment”, “unemployment”, “foreclosure”, “pensions”, fiscal”, “deficit”, “morbidity”, “avoidable mortality”, “amenable mortality”, “budget”, and “budget crisis” in various combinations. The search resulted in 172 English language studies published from 1 January 1980 through 1 April 2013 that met the inclusion criteria. The data synthesis was structured into two themes: new developments in our understanding of changes in morbidity or mortality risk related to recession or fiscal austerity, and public health system responses to the recession under fiscal constraints. We found consistent evidence that recessions, and unemployment in particular, can be significantly damaging to mental health, increasing the risk of substance abuse and suicide particularly for young men. We also found that the previously reported mortality declines during recessions may occur in only a few causes of death such as reduced automobile deaths. In addition, the expansion of Medicaid, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and unemployment benefits under American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 likely had substantial buffering effects on health, especially among poor women and their children. These programs often excluded young single men, who are at highest risk of substance abuse and suicide. Thus, these populations should be targeted during downturns or integrated into safety net programs before the next recession.

Job insecurity during recessions: effects on survivors' work stress.

BackgroundPrevious studies show a variety of negative health consequences for the remaining workforce after downsizing events. This study examined self-reported work stress from 2009–2012 in the context of a large multi-site aluminum manufacturing company that underwent severe downsizing in 2009.MethodsThis study examined the association between work stress and working at a work site that underwent severe downsizing. We assessed the level of downsizing across thirty plants in 2009 and categorized seven as having undergone severe downsizing. We linked plant-level downsizing information to individual workers’ responses to an annual work engagement survey, which included three work stress questions. From 2009 to 2012 over 14, 000 employees were asked about their experience of work stress. Though the surveys were anonymous, the surveys captured employees’ demographic and employment characteristic as well as plant location. We used hierarchical logistic regressions to compare responses of workers at severely downsized plants to workers at all other plant while controlling for demographic and plant characteristics. Responses to the work stress questions and one control question were examined.ResultsIn all yearly surveys salaried workers consistently reported having more work stress than hourly workers. There was no differential in work stress for workers at severely downsized plants in 2009. In 2010 to 2012, salaried workers who remained at severely downsized plants reported significantly higher work stress than salaried workers at all other plants across multiple work stress questions. Examination of the 2006 survey confirmed that there were no pre-existing differences in work stress among salaried employees working at plants that would eventually experience severe downsizing. In addition, there was no difference in responses to the control question at severely downsized plants.ConclusionSalaried workers at plants with high layoffs experienced more work stress after 2009 than their counterparts at non-high layoff plants. Increased work stress is important to monitor and may be a mediating pathway through which the external economic environment leads to adverse health outcomes.

SMS messages increase adherence to rapid diagnostic test results among malaria patients: Results from a pilot study in Nigeria

BackgroundThe World Health Organization now recommends parasitological confirmation for malaria case management. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria are an accurate and simple diagnostic to confirm parasite presence in blood. However, where they have been deployed, adherence to RDT results has been poor, especially when the test result is negative. Few studies have examined adherence to RDTs distributed or purchased through the private sector.MethodsThe Rapid Examination of Malaria and Evaluation of Diagnostic Information (REMEDI) study assessed the acceptability of and adherence to RDT results for patients seeking care from private sector drug retailers in two cities in Oyo State in south-west Nigeria. In total, 465 adult participants were enrolled upon exit from a participating drug shop having purchased anti-malaria drugs for themselves. Participants were given a free RDT and the appropriate treatment advice based on their RDT result. Short Message Service (SMS) text messages reiterating the treatment advice were sent to a randomly selected half of the participants one day after being tested. Participants were contacted via phone four days after the RDT was conducted to assess adherence to the RDT information and treatment advice.ResultsAdherence to RDT results was 14.3 percentage points (P-val <0.001) higher in the treatment group who were sent the SMS. The higher adherence in the treatment group was robust to several specification tests and the estimated difference in adherence ranged from 9.7 to 16.1 percentage points. Further, the higher adherence to the treatment advice was specific to the treatment advice for anti-malarial drugs and not other drugs purchased to treat malaria symptoms in the RDT-negative participants who bought both anti-malarial and symptom drugs. There was no difference in adherence for the RDT-positive participants who were sent the SMS.ConclusionsSMS text messages substantially increased adherence to RDT results for patients seeking care for malaria from privately owned drug retailers in Nigeria and may be a simple and cost-effective means for boosting adherence to RDT results if and when RDTs are introduced as a commercial retail product.

Does breastfeeding duration decrease child obesity? An instrumental variables analysis.

Many studies have documented that breastfeeding is associated with a significant reduction in child obesity risk. However, a persistent problem in this literature is that unobservable confounders may drive the correlations between breastfeeding behaviors and child weight outcomes.

Using “Big Data” to Capture Overall Health Status: Properties and Predictive Value of a Claims-Based Health Risk Score

Background Investigators across many fields often struggle with how best to capture an individual’s overall health status, with options including both subjective and objective measures. With the increasing availability of “big data,” researchers can now take advantage of novel metrics of health status. These predictive algorithms were initially developed to forecast and manage expenditures, yet they represent an underutilized tool that could contribute significantly to health research. In this paper, we describe the properties and possible applications of one such “health risk score,” the DxCG Intelligence tool. Methods We link claims and administrative datasets on a cohort of U.S. workers during the period 1996–2011 (N = 14,161). We examine the risk score’s association with incident diagnoses of five disease conditions, and we link employee data with the National Death Index to characterize its relationship with mortality. We review prior studies documenting the risk score’s association with other health and non-health outcomes, including healthcare utilization, early retirement, and occupational injury. Results and Conclusions We find that the risk score is associated with outcomes across a variety of health and non-health domains. These examples demonstrate the broad applicability of this tool in multiple fields of research and illustrate its utility as a measure of overall health status for epidemiologists and other health researchers.

Exploration of pathways related to the decline in female circumcision in Egypt

BackgroundThere has been a large decline in female genital circumcision (FGC) in Egypt in recent decades. Understanding how this change has occurred so rapidly has been an area of particular interest to policymakers and public health officials alike who seek to further discourage the practice elsewhere.MethodsWe document the trends in this decline in the newest cohorts of young girls and explore the influences of three pathways—socioeconomic development, social media messages, and women’s empowerment—for explaining the observed trends. Using the 2005 and 2008 Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys, we estimate several logistic regression models to (1) examine individual and household determinants of circumcision, (2) assess the contributions of different pathways through which these changes may have occurred, and (3) assess the robustness of different pathways when unobserved community differences are taken into account.ResultsAcross all communities, socioeconomic status, social media messages, and women’s empowerment all have significant independent effects on the risk of circumcision. However, after accounting for unobserved differences across communities, only mother’s education and household wealth significantly predict circumcision outcomes. Additional analyses of maternal education suggest that increases in women’s education may be causally related to the reduction in FGC prevalence.ConclusionsWomen’s empowerment and social media appear to be more important in explaining differences across communities; within communities, socioeconomic status is a key driver of girls’ circumcision risk. Further investigation of community-level women’s educational attainment for mothers suggests that investments made in female education a generation ago may have had echo effects on girls’ FGC risk a generation later.

Presumptive Treatment of Malaria from Formal and Informal Drug Vendors in Nigeria

Background Despite policies that recommend parasitological testing before treatment for malaria, presumptive treatment remains widespread in Nigeria. The majority of Nigerians obtain antimalarial drugs from two types of for-profit drug vendors—formal and informal medicine shops—but little is known about the quality of malaria care services provided at these shops. Aims This study seeks to (1) describe the profile of patients who seek treatment at different types of drug outlets, (2) document the types of drugs purchased for treating malaria, (3) assess which patients are purchasing recommended drugs, and (4) estimate the extent of malaria over-treatment. Methods In urban, peri-urban, and rural areas in Oyo State, customers exiting proprietary and patent medicine vendor (PPMV) shops or pharmacies having purchased anti-malarial drugs were surveyed and tested with malaria rapid diagnostic test. A follow-up phone survey was conducted four days after to assess self-reported drug administration. Bivariate and multivariate regression analysis was conducted to determine the correlates of patronizing a PPMV versus pharmacy, and the likelihood of purchasing an artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT) drug. Results Of the 457participants who sought malaria treatment in 49 enrolled outlets, nearly 92% had diagnosed their condition by themselves, a family member, or a friend. Nearly 60% pharmacy customers purchased an ACT compared to only 29% of PPMV customers, and pharmacy customers paid significantly more on average. Multivariate regression results show that patrons of PPMVs were younger, less wealthy, waited fewer days before seeking care, and were less likely to be diagnosed at a hospital, clinic, or laboratory. Only 3.9% of participants tested positive with a malaria rapid diagnostic test. Conclusions Poorer individuals seeking care at PPMVs are more likely to receive inappropriate malaria treatment when compared to those who go to pharmacies. Increasing accessibility to reliable diagnosis should be explored to reduce malaria over-treatment.

Longitudinal relation of community-level income inequality and mortality in Costa Rica

The controversy regarding the direct relationship between income distribution and health remains unresolved. Empirical evidence has often failed to advance our understanding because in the countries studied there was limited ability to distinguish hypotheses. This study examines the relation between inequality and mortality in the context of Costa Rica. Costa Ricas unique social and political structure makes confounding through resource and political channels less likely, thus any effects would work predominantly through direct psychosocial channels. Using mortality data extracted from the Vital Statistics Registry, we evaluate the longitudinal relations between lagged and contemporaneous income inequality and cause-specific mortality in Costa Rica from 1995 to 2005. For those aged 15-60, results indicate that there is a significant adverse relation between increases in lagged inequality and mortality from liver disease, and marginal adverse relations with mortality from diabetes and suicide. For those aged 60 and over, there is a limited evidence of a relation between inequality and health. These results suggest increases in inequality may impact health behavior of the working aged population in Costa Rica.