Serena H. Hamilton

Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management

The design and implementation of effective environmental policies need to be informed by a holistic understanding of the system processes (biophysical, social and economic), their complex interactions, and how they respond to various changes. Models, integrating different system processes into a unified framework, are seen as useful tools to help analyse alternatives with stakeholders, assess their outcomes, and communicate results in a transparent way. This paper reviews five common approaches or model types that have the capacity to integrate knowledge by developing models that can accommodate multiple issues, values, scales and uncertainty considerations, as well as facilitate stakeholder engagement. The approaches considered are: systems dynamics, Bayesian networks, coupled component models, agent-based models and knowledge-based models (also referred to as expert systems). We start by discussing several considerations in model development, such as the purpose of model building, the availability of qualitative versus quantitative data for model specification, the level of spatio-temporal detail required, and treatment of uncertainty. These considerations and a review of applications are then used to develop a framework that aims to assist modellers and model users in the choice of an appropriate modelling approach for their integrated assessment applications and that enables more effective learning in interdisciplinary settings. We review five common integrated modelling approaches.Model choice considers purpose, data type, scale and uncertainty treatment.We present a guiding framework for selecting the most appropriate approach.

Integrated assessment and modelling

Integrated assessment and its inherent platform, integrated modelling, present an opportunity to synthesize diverse knowledge, data, methods and perspectives into an overarching framework to address complex environmental problems. However to be successful for assessment or decision making purposes, all salient dimensions of integrated modelling must be addressed with respect to its purpose and context. The key dimensions include: issues of concern; management options and governance arrangements; stakeholders; natural systems; human systems; spatial scales; temporal scales; disciplines; methods, models, tools and data; and sources and types of uncertainty. This paper aims to shed light on these ten dimensions, and how integration of the dimensions fits in the four main phases in the integrated assessment process: scoping, problem framing and formulation, assessing options, and communicating findings. We provide examples of participatory processes and modelling tools that can be used to achieve integration. This is an overview on integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) for environmental problems.We examine the ten key dimensions of integration in IAM including what is being integrated, why and how.We discuss how the integration dimensions fit into the IAM process.

Modelling and Software as Instruments for Advancing Sustainability

Abstract The complex and multidisciplinary nature of environmental problems requires that they are dealt with in an integrated manner. This is a challenging task for which modelling and software have become key instruments used to promote sustainability and improve environmental decision processes. This role can especially be one that facilitates systematic integration of various knowledge and data, that fosters learning and helps to make predictions. This book presents the current state of the art in environmental modelling and software and identifies the future challenges in the field. This opening chapter provides an introduction to the topic, the objectives of the book and an outline of its chapters. Modelling can perform a range of valuable roles, from being a process of sharing and structuring knowledge to providing a means of investigating tradeoffs or increasing system understanding. Without full appreciation of their limitations and capabilities, however, there is a risk of models being misused or their outputs misinterpreted. On the other hand, model uncertainty cannot be totally eliminated but it can be understood, communicated and managed. The common problems in modelling that must be understood by modellers and users, and approaches to address them are discussed in the first few chapters. This section of chapters highlights the need for better standards in modelling practice, appropriate handling of uncertainty and improvement of model usability. The next section of the book explores generic and sectoral issues in modelling in the context of the state of the art in modelling tools and approaches, and thereby identifies future research, development and practice needs. Challenges pervasive in various modelling fields include the need for more credible and purposeful models, for better uncertainty management and for more support of an open and collaborative modelling process. Overall a much stronger emphasis on the modelling and software process is warranted.

Integrated groundwater management: An overview of concepts and challenges

Managing water is a grand challenge problem and has become one of humanity’s foremost priorities. Surface water resources are typically societally managed and relatively well understood; groundwater resources, however, are often hidden and more difficult to conceptualize. Replenishment rates of groundwater cannot match past and current rates of depletion in many parts of the world. In addition, declining quality of the remaining groundwater commonly cannot support all agricultural, industrial and urban demands and ecosystem functioning, especially in the developed world. In the developing world, it can fail to even meet essential human needs. The issue is: how do we manage this crucial resource in an acceptable way, one that considers the sustainability of the resource for future generations and the socioeconomic and environmental impacts? In many cases this means restoring aquifers of concern to some sustainable equilibrium over a negotiated period of time, and seeking opportunities for better managing groundwater conjunctively with surface water and other resource uses. However, there are many, often-interrelated, dimensions to managing groundwater effectively. Effective groundwater management is underpinned by sound science (biophysical and social) that actively engages the wider community and relevant stakeholders in the decision making process. Generally, an integrated approach will mean “thinking beyond the aquifer”, a view which considers the wider context of surface water links, catchment management and cross-sectoral issues with economics, energy, climate, agriculture and the environment. The aim of the book is to document for the first time the dimensions and requirements of sound integrated groundwater management (IGM). The primary focus is on groundwater management within its system, but integrates linkages beyond the aquifer. The book provides an encompassing synthesis for researchers, practitioners and water resource managers on the concepts and tools required for defensible IGM, including how IGM can be applied to achieve more sustainable socioeconomic and environmental outcomes, and key challenges of IGM. The book is divided into five parts: integration overview and problem settings; governance; socioeconomics; biophysical aspects; and modelling and decision support. However, IGM is integrated by definition, thus these divisions should be considered a convenience for presenting the topics rather than hard and fast demarcations of the topic area.

Regionalisation of freshwater fish assemblages in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia

Regionalisations based on species assemblages are a useful framework for characterising ecological communities and revealing patterns in the environment. In the present study, multivariate analyses are used to discern large-scale patterns in fish assemblages in the Murray–Darling Basin, based on information from the Murray–Darling Basin Authority’s first Sustainable Rivers Audit (SRA), conducted in 2004–2007. The Basin is classified into nine regions with similar historical fish assemblages (i.e. without major human intervention), using data that combine expert opinion, museum collections and historical records. These regions are (1) Darling Basin Plains, (2) Northern Uplands, (3) Murray Basin Plains, (4) Northern Alps, (5) Central East, (6) Avoca Lowland, (7) Southern Slopes, (8) Southern Alps and (9) South-Western Slopes. Associations between assemblages and physical variables (catchment area, elevation, hydrology, precipitation, temperature) are identified and used to reinforce the definitions of regions. Sustainable Rivers Audit data are compared with the historical assemblages, highlighting species whose range and abundance have changed since the early 19th century. Notable changes include declines in native species such as silver perch, river blackfish, mountain galaxias, Macquarie perch, trout cod and freshwater catfish, and the advent of alien species including common carp, eastern gambusia, goldfish, redfin perch, brown trout and rainbow trout. Less significant declines are evident for native carp gudgeons, golden perch, two-spined blackfish, bony herring and flathead gudgeon. Changes are evident even in regions where habitats have been little disturbed in the past 200 years.

Integrated Approaches Within Water Resource Planning and Management in Australia—Theory and Application

This chapter overviews the dimensions and challenges in integrative approaches in water resource decision making. Integrative research is central to tackling real-world, complex science and social-political problems, where acceptable solutions often cross disciplinary boundaries. Recent literature on integration theory and the dimensions and challenges of integration are reviewed. Literature on translating integrated approaches from theory to practice is synthesized. We then use three case studies, all from the Murray-Darling Basin, to demonstrate different approaches to integration, where each example sought to achieve a different purpose and had different scales of application. We conclude the chapter with some lessons learned and some needs to consider for future integrative research projects.

Disentangling the complexity of groundwater dependent social-ecological systems

Groundwater resources are part of larger social-ecological systems. In this chapter, we review the various dimensions of these complex systems in order to uncover the diversity of elements at stake in the evolution of an aquifer and the loci for possible actions to control its dynamics. Two case studies illustrate how the state of an aquifer is embedded in a web of biophysical and sociopolitical processes. We propose here a holistic view through an IGM-scape that describes the various possible pathways of evolution for a groundwater related social-ecological system. Then we describe the elements of this IGM-scape starting with physical entities and processes, including relations with surface water and quality issues. Interactions with society bring an additional layer of considerations, including decisions on groundwater abstraction, land use changes and even energy related choices. Finally we point out the policy levers for groundwater management and their possible consequences for an aquifer, taking into account the complexity of pathways opened by these levers.