Serge Galam

SOCIOPHYSICS: A REVIEW OF GALAM MODELS

We review a series of models of sociophysics introduced by Galam and Galam et al. in the last 25 years. The models are divided into five different classes, which deal respectively with democratic voting in bottom-up hierarchical systems, decision making, fragmentation versus coalitions, terrorism and opinion dynamics. For each class the connexion to the original physical model and techniques are outlined underlining both the similarities and the differences. Emphasis is put on the numerous novel and counterintuitive results obtained with respect to the associated social and political framework. Using these models several major real political events were successfully predicted including the victory of the French extreme right party in the 2000 first round of French presidential elections, the voting at fifty–fifty in several democratic countries (Germany, Italy, Mexico), and the victory of the no to the 2005 French referendum on the European constitution. The perspectives and the challenges to make sociophysics a predictive solid field of science are discussed.

The role of inflexible minorities in the breaking of democratic opinion dynamics

We study the effect of inflexible agents on two state opinion dynamics. The model operates via repeated local updates of random grouping of agents. While floater agents do eventually flip their opinion to follow the local majority, inflexible agents keep their opinion always unchanged. It is a quenched individual opinion. In the bare model (no inflexibles), a separator at 50% drives the dynamics towards either one of two pure attractors, each associated with a full polarization along one of the opinions. The initial majority wins. The existence of inflexibles for only one of the two opinions is found to shift the separator at a lower value than 50% in favor of that side. Moreover it creates an incompressible minority around the inflexibles, one of the pure attractors becoming a mixed phase attractor. In addition above a threshold of 17% inflexibles make their side sure of winning whatever the initial conditions are. The inflexible minority wins. An equal presence of inflexibles on both sides restores the balanced dynamics with again a separator at 50% and now two mixed phase attractors on each side. Nevertheless, beyond 25% the dynamics is reversed with a unique attractor at a 50–50 stable equilibrium. But a very small advantage in inflexibles results in a decisive lowering of the separator at the advantage of the corresponding opinion. A few percent advantage does guarantee to become majority with one single attractor. The model is solved exhaustedly for groups of size 3.

Heterogeneous beliefs, segregation, and extremism in the making of public opinions.

The connection between contradictory public opinions, heterogeneous beliefs, and the emergence of majority- or minority-induced extremism is studied, extending our former two-state dynamic opinion model. Agents are attached to a social-cultural class. At each step they are distributed randomly in different groups within their respective classes to evolve locally by majority rule. In case of a tie the group adopts one or another opinion with respective probabilities k and (1-k) . The value of k accounts for the average of individual biases driven by the existence of heterogeneous beliefs within the corresponding class. It may vary from class to class. The process leads to extremism with a full polarization of each class along one opinion. For homogeneous classes the extremism can be along the initial minority making it minority induced. In contrast, heterogeneous classes exhibit more balanced dynamics, which results in a majority-induced extremism. Segregation among subclasses may produce a coexistence of opinions at the class level, thus averting global extremism. Insight into the existence of contradictory public opinions in similar social-cultural neighborhoods is given.

Social paradoxes of majority rule voting and renormalization group

Real-space renormalization group ideas are used to study a voting problem in political science. A model to construct self-directed pyramidal structures from bottom up to the top is presented. Using majority rules, it is shown that a minority and even a majority can be systematically self-eliminated from top leadership, provided the hierarchy has a minimal number of levels. In some cases, 70% of the population is found to have zero representation after six hierarchical levels. Results are discussed with respect to the internal operation of political organizations.

Opinion dynamics in a three-choice system

Abstract.We generalize Galam’s model of opinion spreadingnby introducing three competing choices. At eachnupdate, the population is randomly divided inngroups of three agents, whose members adoptnthe opinion of the local majority. In the casenof a tie, the local group adopts opinionnA, B or C with probabilities α, βnand (1-α-β) respectively. We deriventhe associated phase diagrams and dynamics bynboth analytical means and simulations. Polarizationnis always reached within very short time scales.nWe point out situations in which an initiallynvery small minority opinion can invade the whole system. n n

From 2000 Bush–Gore to 2006 Italian elections: voting at fifty-fifty and the contrarian effect

A sociophysical model for opinion dynamics is shown to embody a series of recent western hung national votes all set at the unexpected and very improbable edge of a fifty-fifty score. It started with the Bush–Gore 2000 American presidential election, followed by the 2002 Stoiber–Schröder, then the 2005 Schröder–Merkel German elections, and finally the 2006 Prodi-Berlusconi Italian elections. In each case, the country was facing drastic choices, the running competing parties were advocating very different programs and millions of voters were involved. Moreover, polls were given a substantial margin for the predicted winner. While all these events were perceived as accidental and isolated, our model suggests that indeed they are deterministic and obey to one single universal phenomena associated to the effect of contrarian behavior on the dynamics of opinion forming. The not hung Bush–Kerry 2004 presidential election is shown to belong to the same universal frame. To conclude, the existence of contrarians hints at the repetition of hung elections in the near future.

Chaotic, staggered, and polarized dynamics in opinion forming: The contrarian effect.

We reconsider the no-tie-breaking two-state Galam contrarian model of opinion dynamics for update groups of size 3. While the initial model assumes a constant density of contrarians a for both opinions, the density now depends for each opinion on its global support. Proportionate contrarians are thus found to indeed preserve the main results of the former case. However, restricting the contrarian behavior to only the current collective majority makes the dynamics more complex with additional features. For a density a < a(c) = 1/9 of one-sided contrarians, a chaotic basin is found in the 50-50 region separated from two majority-minority point attractors, one on each side. For 1/9 < a less similar to 0.301 only the chaotic basin survives. In the range a > 0.301 the chaotic basin disappears and the majority starts to alternate between the two opinions with a staggered flow toward two point attractors. We then study the effect of both decoupling the local update time sequence from the contrarian behavior activation and a smoothing of the majority rule. A status quo-driven bias for contrarian activation is also considered. Introduction of unsettled agents driven in the debate on a contrarian basis is shown only to shrink the chaotic basin. The model may shed light on recent apparent contradictory elections with on the one hand very close results as in the United States in 2000 and in Germany in 2002 and 2005, and on the other hand, a huge majority as in France in 2002.

A new universality for random sequential deposition of needles

Abstract:Percolation and jamming phenomena are investigated for random sequential deposition of rectangular needles on d=2 square lattices. Associated thresholds Pcperc and Pcjam are determined for various needle sizes. Their ratios Pcperc /Pcjam are found to be a constant

Tailor based allocations for multiple authorship: a fractional gh-index

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