Sergey Kirillov

Toward a warmer Arctic Ocean: Spreading of the early 21st century Atlantic Water warm anomaly along the Eurasian Basin margins

We document through the analysis of 2002–2005 observational data the recent Atlantic Water (AW) warming along the Siberian continental margin due to several AW warm impulses that penetrated into the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait in 1999–2000. The AW temperature record from our long-term monitoring site in the northern Laptev Sea shows several events of rapid AW temperature increase totaling 0.8°C in February–August 2004. We hypothesize the along-margin spreading of this warmer anomaly has disrupted the downstream thermal equilibrium of the late 1990s to earlier 2000s. The anomaly mean velocity of 2.4–2.5 ± 0.2 cm/s was obtained on the basis of travel time required between the northern Laptev Sea and two anomaly fronts delineated over the Eurasian flank of the Lomonosov Ridge by comparing the 2005 snapshot along-margin data with the AW pre-1990 mean. The magnitude of delineated anomalies exceeds the level of pre-1990 mean along-margin cooling and rises above the level of noise attributed to shifting of the AW jet across the basin margins. The anomaly mean velocity estimation is confirmed by comparing mooring-derived AW temperature time series from 2002 to 2005 with the downstream along-margin AW temperature distribution from 2005. Our mooring current meter data corroborate these estimations.

Seasonal modification of the Arctic Ocean intermediate water layer off the eastern Laptev Sea continental shelf break

up to 75% of the total variance. Our data suggest that the entire AW layer down to at least 840 m is affected by seasonal cycling, although the strength of the seasonal signal in temperature and salinity reduces from 260 m (±0.25C and ±0.025 psu) to 840 m (±0.05C and ±0.005 psu). The seasonal velocity signal is substantially weaker, strongly masked by high-frequency variability, and lags the thermohaline cycle by 45–75 days. We hypothesize that our mooring record shows a time history of the along-margin propagation of the AW seasonal signal carried downstream by the AW boundary current. Our analysis suggests that the seasonal signal in the Fram Strait Branch of AW (FSBW) at 260 m is predominantly translated from Fram Strait, while the seasonality in the Barents Sea branch of AW (BSBW) domain (at 840 m) is attributed instead to the seasonal signal input from the Barents Sea. However, the characteristic signature of the BSBW seasonal dynamics observed through the entire AW layer leads us to speculate that BSBW also plays a role in seasonally modifying the properties of the FSBW.

The long-term and interannual variability of summer fresh water storage over the eastern Siberian shelf : Implication for climatic change

A time series of summer fresh water content anomalies (FWCA) over the Laptev and East Siberian sea shelves was constructed from historical hydrographic records for the period from 1920 to 2005. Results from a multiple regression between FCWA and various atmospheric and oceanic indices show that the fresh water content on the shelves is mainly controlled by atmospheric vorticity on quasi-decadal timescales. When the vorticity of the atmosphere on the shelves is antycyclonic, approximately 500 km3 of fresh water migrates from the eastern Siberian shelf to the Arctic Ocean through the northeastern Laptev Sea. When the vorticity of the atmosphere is cyclonic, this fresh water remains on the southern Laptev and East Siberian sea shelves. This FWCA represents approximately 35% of the total fresh water inflow provided by river discharge and local sea-ice melt, and is about ten times larger than the standard deviation of the Lena River summer long-term mean discharge. However, the large interannual and spatial variability in the fresh water content of the shelves, as well as the spatial coverage of the hydrographic data, makes it difficult to detect the long-term tendency of fresh water storage associated with climate change.

Arctic Ocean Freshwater Changes over the Past 100 Years and Their Causes

Abstract Recent observations show dramatic changes of the Arctic atmosphere–ice–ocean system. Here the authors demonstrate, through the analysis of a vast collection of previously unsynthesized observational data, that over the twentieth century the central Arctic Ocean became increasingly saltier with a rate of freshwater loss of 239 ± 270 km3 decade−1. In contrast, long-term (1920–2003) freshwater content (FWC) trends over the Siberian shelf show a general freshening tendency with a rate of 29 ± 50 km3 decade−1. These FWC trends are modulated by strong multidecadal variability with sustained and widespread patterns. Associated with this variability, the FWC record shows two periods in the 1920s–30s and in recent decades when the central Arctic Ocean was saltier, and two periods in the earlier century and in the 1940s–70s when it was fresher. The current analysis of potential causes for the recent central Arctic Ocean salinification suggests that the FWC anomalies generated on Arctic shelves (including a...

Fate of early 2000s Arctic warm water pulse

The water mass structure of the Arctic Ocean is remarkable, for its intermediate (depth range ~150–900 m) layer is filled with warm (temperature >0°C) and salty water of Atlantic origin (usually called the Atlantic Water, AW). This water is carried into and through the Arctic Ocean by the pan-Arctic boundary current, which moves cyclonically along the basins’ margins (Fig. 1). This system provides the largest input of water, heat, and salt into the Arctic Ocean; the total quantity of heat is substantial, enough to melt the Arctic sea ice cover several times over. By utilizing an extensive archive Fate of Early 2000s Arctic Warm Water Pulse of recently collected observational data, this study provides a cohesive picture of recent large-scale changes in the AW layer of the Arctic Ocean. These recent observations show the warm pulse of AW that entered the Arctic Ocean in the early 1990s finally reached the Canada Basin during the 2000s. The second warm pulse that entered the Arctic Ocean in the mid-2000s has moved through the Eurasian Basin and is en route downstream. One of the most intriguing results of these observations is the realization of the possibility of uptake of anomalous AW heat by overlying layers, with possible implications for an already-reduced Arctic ice cover.

Impact of the Arctic Ocean Atlantic water layer on Siberian shelf hydrography

This paper examines the role of the Arctic Ocean Atlantic water (AW) in modifying the Laptev Sea shelf bottom hydrography on the basis of historical records from 1932 to 2008, field observations carried out in April–May 2008, and 2002–2009 cross‐slope measurements. A climatology of bottom hydrography demonstrates warming that extends offshore from the 30–50 m depth contour. Bottom layer temperature‐time series constructed from historical records links the Laptev Sea outer shelf to the AW boundary current transporting warm and saline water from the North Atlantic. The AW warming of the mid‐1990s and the mid‐2000s is consistent with outer shelf bottom temperature variability. For April–May 2008 we observed on‐shelf near‐bottom warm and saline water intrusions up to the 20 m isobath. These intrusions are typically about 0.2°C warmer and 1–1.5 practical salinity units saltier than ambient water. The 2002–2009 cross‐slope observations are suggestive for the continental slope upward heat flux from the AW to the overlying low‐halocline water (LHW). The lateral on‐shelf wind‐driven transport of the LHW then results in the bottom layer thermohaline anomalies recorded over the Laptev Sea shelf. We also found that polynya‐induced vertical mixing may act as a drainage of the bottom layer, permitting a relatively small portion of the AW heat to be directly released to the atmosphere. Finally, we see no significant warming (up until now) over the Laptev Sea shelf deeper than 10–15 m in the historical record. Future climate change, however, may bring more intrusions of Atlantic‐modified waters with potentially warmer temperature onto the shelf, which could have a critical impact on the stability of offshore submarine permafrost.

Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost instability

Summer hydrographic data (1920–2009) show a dramatic warming of the bottom water layer over the eastern Siberian shelf coastal zone (<10 m depth), since the mid-1980s, by 2.1°C. We attribute this warming to changes in the Arctic atmosphere. The enhanced summer cyclonicity results in warmer air temperatures and a reduction in ice extent, mainly through thermodynamic melting. This leads to a lengthening of the summer open-water season and to more solar heating of the water column. The permafrost modeling indicates, however, that a significant change in the permafrost depth lags behind the imposed changes in surface temperature, and after 25 years of summer seafloor warming (as observed from 1985 to 2009), the upper boundary of permafrost deepens only by ∼1 m. Thus, the observed increase in temperature does not lead to a destabilization of methane-bearing subsea permafrost or to an increase in methane emission. The CH4 supersaturation, recently reported from the eastern Siberian shelf, is believed to be the result of the degradation of subsea permafrost that is due to the long-lasting warming initiated by permafrost submergence about 8000 years ago rather than from those triggered by recent Arctic climate changes. A significant degradation of subsea permafrost is expected to be detectable at the beginning of the next millennium. Until that time, the simulated permafrost table shows a deepening down to ∼70 m below the seafloor that is considered to be important for the stability of the subsea permafrost and the permafrost-related gas hydrate stability zone.

Mesoscale Atlantic water eddy off the Laptev Sea continental slope carries the signature of upstream interaction

A mesoscale eddy formed by the interaction of inflows of Atlantic water (AW) from Fram Strait and the Barents Sea into the Arctic Ocean was observed in February 2005 off the Laptev Sea continental slope by a mooring equipped with a McLane Moored Profiler. The eddy was composed of two distinct, vertically aligned cores with a combined thickness of about 650 m. The upper core of approximately ambient density was warmer (2.6°C), saltier (34.88 psu), and vertically stably stratified. The lower core was cooler (0.1°C), fresher (34.81 psu), neutrally stratified and ∼0.02 kg/m3 less dense than surrounding ambient water. The eddy, homogeneous out to a radius of at least 3.4 km, had a 14.5 km radius of maximum velocity, and an entire diameter of about 27 km. We hypothesize that the eddy was formed by the confluence of the Fram Strait and Barents Sea AW inflows into the Arctic Ocean that takes place north of the Kara Sea, about 1100 km upstream from the mooring location. The eddys vertical structure is likely maintained by salt fingering and diffusive convection. The numerical simulation of one-dimensional thermal and salt diffusion equations reasonably reproduces the evolution of the eddy thermohaline patterns from the hypothesized source area to the mooring location, suggesting that the vertical processes of double-diffusive and shear instabilities may be more important than lateral processes for the evolution of the eddy. The eddy is able to carry its thermohaline anomaly several thousand kilometers downstream from its source location.

Atmospheric controlled freshwater release at the Laptev Sea continental margin

Considerable interannual differences were observed in river water and sea-ice meltwater inventory values derived from δ18O and salinity data in the Eurasian Basin along the continental margin of the Laptev Sea in the summers of 1993 and 1995, and in the summers of 2005 and 2006 during Nansen and Amundsen Basins Observational system (NABOS) expeditions. The annually different pattern in river and sea-ice meltwater inventories remain closely linked for all of the years studied, which indicates that source regions and transport mechanisms for both river water and sea-ice formation are largely similar over the relatively shallow Laptev Sea Shelf. A simple Ekman trajectory model for surface Lagrangian particles based solely on wind forcing can explain the main features observed between years with significantly different wind patterns and vorticities, and can also explain differences in river water distributions observed for years with a generally similar offshore wind setting. An index based on this simplified trajectory model is rather similar to the vorticity index, but reflects the hydrology on the shelf better for distinctive years. This index is not correlated with the Arctic Oscillation, but rather with a local mode of oscillation, which controls the outflow and distribution of the Eurasian Basin major freshwater source on an annual timescale.

Properties of the Atlantic derived halocline waters over the Laptev Sea continental margin: Evidence from 2002 to 2009

[1] A series of transects carried out in 2002–2009 across the Laptev Sea continental margin show consistent cross‐slope differences of the lower halocline water (LHW). Over the slope the LHW core is on average warmer and saltier by 0.39°C and 0.26 practical salinity unit, respectively, relative to the off‐slope LHW. Underlying Atlantic water (AW) thermohaline properties exhibit an opposite pattern; it is colder and fresher over the slope and warmer and saltier off the slope. Although on‐slope and off‐slope LHWs have different formation histories, our results suggest that an important part of the heat and salt lost from the AW is gained by the overlying LHW over the continental slope area. This implies the role of enhanced vertical mixing over the sloping topography, which contributes to the difference between the on‐ and off‐slope LHW properties. The distribution of chemical tracers (dissolved oxygen and nutrients) provides further evidence supporting this interpretation and additionally suggests that the LHW may also be influenced by water from the outer shelf.