Sergey Tyagunov

Multi-hazard fragility analysis for fluvial earthen dikes in earthquake and flood prone areas

The paper presents a methodological framework for multi-hazard fragility analyses for fluvial earthen dikes in earthquake and flood prone areas. The methodology and results are an integral part of the multi-hazard (earthquake-flood) risk study implemented within the framework of the EU FP7 project MATRIX (New Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk 10 Assessment Methods for Europe) for the area around Cologne, Germany. The study area covers the Rhine River reach and adjacent floodplains between the gauges Andernach and Düsseldorf. Along this domain, the inhabited areas are partly protected by earthen embankments (dikes or levees), which may be prone to failure in case of exceptional floods and/or earthquakes. The main focus of the study is to consider the damage potential of the dikes within the context of the possible interaction between the two hazards. The fragility of the earthen dikes is analyzed in terms of liquefaction potential 15 characterized by the factor of safety. Uncertainties in the geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters are considered by using a Monte Carlo approach. The damage potential of the earthen structures is presented in the form of a fragility surface showing the damage probability as a function of both seismic ground shaking and flood water level. The obtained results can be used for multi-hazard risk assessment in earthquake and flood prone areas and, in particular, are intended for comprehensive risk assessment in the area around the city of Cologne. 20

Vulnerability And Risk Analysis For Earthquake Prone Communities

Summary The paper presents some results of the seismic risk subproject implemented by the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM). The main attention is paid to the vulnerability analysis of the existing building stock of communities in Germany, which is conducted in terms of the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98). Damage probability matrices and vulnerability curves are constructed for the vulnerability classes A, B, C, D, which are representative for the existing building stock. Vulnerability composition models are constructed for communities of different size. In combination with the seismic hazard input and estimated values at risk they allow analyzing possible damage and losses from potential future earthquakes.