Sergi Trias-Llimós

Comparison of different approaches for estimating age-specific alcohol-attributable mortality: The cases of France and Finland

Background Accurate estimates of the impact of alcohol on overall and age-specific mortality are crucial for formulating health policies. However, different approaches to estimating alcohol-attributable mortality provide different results, and a detailed comparison of age-specific estimates is missing. Methods Using data on cause of death, alcohol consumption, and relative risks of mortality at different consumption levels, we compare eight estimates of sex- and age-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France (2010) and Finland (2013): five estimates using cause-of-death approaches (with one accounting for contributory causes), and three estimates using attributable fraction (AF) approaches. Results AF-related approaches and the approach based on alcohol-related underlying and contributory causes of death provided estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality that were twice as high as the estimates found using underlying cause-of-death approaches in both countries and sexes. The differences across the methods were greatest among older age groups An inverse U-shape in age-specific alcohol-attributable mortality (peaking at around age 65) was observed for cause-of-death approaches, with this shape being more pronounced in Finland. AF-related approaches resulted in different estimates at older ages: i.e., mortality was found to increase with age in France; whereas in Finland mortality estimates depended on the underlying assumptions regarding the effects of alcohol consumption on cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions While the most detailed approaches (i.e., the AF-related approach and the approach that includes underlying and contributory causes) are theoretically able to provide more accurate estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality, they–especially the AF approaches- depend heavily on data availability and quality. To enhance the reliability of alcohol-attributable mortality estimates, data quality for older age groups needs to be improved.

Past trends in obesity-attributable mortality in eight European countries: an application of age–period–cohort analysis

ObjectivesTo assess age, period, and birth cohort effects and patterns of obesity-attributable mortality in Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, and the UK (UK).MethodsWe obtained obesity prevalence and all-cause mortality data by age (20–79), sex and country for 1990–2012. We applied Clayton and Schifflers’ age–period–cohort approach to obesity-attributable mortality rates (OAMRs).ResultsBetween 1990 and 2012, obesity prevalence increased and age-standardised OAMRs declined, although not uniformly. The nonlinear birth cohort effects contributed significantly (p < 0.01) to obesity-attributable mortality trends in all populations, except in Czech Republic, Finland, and among German women, and Polish men. Their contribution was greater than 25% in UK and among French women, and larger than that of the nonlinear period effects. In the UK, mortality rate ratios (MRRs) increased among the cohorts born after 1950. In other populations with significant birth cohort effects, MRRs increased among the 1935–1960 cohorts and decreased thereafter.ConclusionsGiven its potential effects on obesity-attributable mortality, the cohort dimension should not be ignored and calls for interventions early in life next to actions targeting broader societal changes.

The contribution of alcohol to the East-West life expectancy gap in Europe from 1990 onward

Background Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries have lower life expectancies and higher alcohol-attributable mortality than Western European countries. We examine the contribution of alcohol consumption to mortality across Europe, and specifically to the East-West life expectancy gap from 1990 onward. Methods We retrieved alcohol-attributable mortality rates (GBD Study 2013) and all-cause mortality rates (Human Mortality Database) by age and sex for nine CEE countries and for the EU-15 countries. We assessed country-specific potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) by eliminating alcohol-attributable mortality using associated single decrement life tables. We decomposed the life expectancy differences between each CEE country and the EU-15 population-weighted average for 1990-2012/13 into alcohol-attributable and non-alcohol-attributable mortality. Results In 2012/13, the PGLE for men and women were, respectively, 2.15 and 1.00 years in the CEE region and 0.90 and 0.44 years in the EU-15 region. The contribution of alcohol to the East-West gap in life expectancy was largest among men in Russia {2.88 years [uncertainty interval (UI): 1.57-4.06]}, Belarus [3.70 years (UI: 1.75-5.45)] and Ukraine [2.47 years (UI: 0.90-3.88)]. The relative contributions increased in most of the countries between 1990 and 2005 (on average, from 17.0% to 25.4% for men, and from 14.7% to 22.5% for women), and declined thereafter (20.2% for men and 20.5% for women in 2012/13). Conclusions Alcohol contributed substantially to the East-West life expectancy gap in Europe, and to its increase (1990-2005) and decline (2005 onward). Diminishing alcohol consumption in CEE countries to Western European levels can contribute to mortality convergence across Europe.

Alcohol and gender gaps in life expectancy in eight Central and Eastern European countries

Background Gender differences in life expectancy (LE) have been traditionally large in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and alcohol has been hypothesized to be one of its main determinants. We examined the role of alcohol in gender differences in LE in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia and Ukraine, and changes in this role from 1965 until 2012. Methods We decomposed the gender differences in LE at birth into alcohol- and non-alcohol-related mortality. We examined causes of death wholly attributable to alcohol over the whole period, and estimated from 1990 onwards additional alcohol-attributable mortality by using alcohol-attributable fractions from the Global Burden of Disease study. Results In the eight CEE countries, womens advantage in LE relative to men increased from 7.3 years on average in 1965 to 10.0 years on average in 2012. All alcohol-attributable mortality contributed 1.9 years on average (uncertainty intervals (UI): 1.2-2.5; 18.8%) to the gender differences from 1990 to 2012. Its relative contribution increased in most countries until around 2005, and declined thereafter, resulting in a contribution of at least 15% in 2012. The absolute contribution of alcohol to the LE gender gap was strongly correlated with the overall LE gender differences (Pearsons r > 0.75), except in Poland and Estonia. Conclusions Despite recent declines, the contribution of sex differences in excessive alcohol consumption to the LE gender gap is substantial, and should not be neglected. Tackling gender differences in alcohol consumption and alcohol-attributable mortality would contribute to further progress in reducing mortality.