Serhan Cevik

The Behavior of Conventional and Islamic Bank Deposit Returns in Malaysia and Turkey

This paper examines the empirical behavior of conventional bank deposit rates and the rate of return on retail Islamic profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) investment accounts in Malaysia and Turkey, using monthly data from January 1997 to August 2010. The analysis shows that conventional bank deposit rates and PLS returns exhibit long-run cointegration and the time-varying volatility of conventional bank deposit rates and PLS returns is correlated and is statistically significant. The pairwise and multivariate causality tests show that conventional bank deposit rates Granger cause returns on PLS accounts. These findings have policy implications in terms of price stability and financial stability.

A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine: How do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?

This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities-crude oil and fine wine, we find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected effect, aggregate demand growth is the key factor. The empirical results show that while advanced economies account for more than half of global consumption, emerging economies make up the bulk of the incremental change in demand, thereby having a greater weight in commodity price formation. The results also show that the shift in the composition of aggregate commodity demand is a recent phenomenon.

LOST IN TRANSMISSION? THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS IN THE GCC COUNTRIES

This paper empirically investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a structural vector autoregressive model. The originality and significance of the paper are in constructing and analyzing “synthetic” aggregate variables for the GCC as a whole. The results indicate that the interest rate and bank lending channels are relatively effective in influencing non-hydrocarbon output and consumer prices, while the exchange rate channel does not appear to play an important role as a monetary transmission mechanism because of the pegged exchange rate regimes. The empirical analysis suggests that policy measures and structural reforms — strengthening financial intermediation and facilitating the development of liquid domestic capital markets — would advance the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanisms in the GCC countries.

Growing (Un)equal; Fiscal Policy and Income Inequality in China and BRIC+

This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of income inequality in China and a panel of BRIC+ countries over the period 1980–2013, with a focus on the redistributive contribution of fiscal policy. Using instrumental variable techniques to deal with potential endogeneity, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis of the existence of a Kuznets curve—an inverted Ushaped relationship between income inequality and economic development—in China and the panel of BRIC+ countries. In the case of China, the empirical results indicate that government spending and taxation have opposing effects on income inequality. While government spending appears to have a worsening impact, taxation improves income distribution. Even though the redistributive effect of fiscal policy in China appears to be stronger than what we identify in the BRIC+ panel, it is not large enough to compensate for the adverse impact of other influential factors.

Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior

This paper investigates the determinants of fiscal policy behavior and its time-varying volatility, using panel data for a broad set of advanced and emerging market economies during the period 1990–2012. The empirical results show that discretionary fiscal policy is influenced by policy inertia, the level of public debt, and the output gap in both advanced and emerging market economies. In addition, the paper finds that macro-financial factors—such as real exchange rate, financial development, interest rates, asset prices, and natural resource rents—and demographic and institutional factors—such as the old-age dependency ratio, the quality of institutions, and policy anchors such as fiscal rules and IMF-supported stabilization programs—tend to have a significant effect on fiscal policy behavior. The results also indicate that higher government debt leads to more volatile fiscal behavior, while fiscal rules and higher institutional quality reduce the volatility of fiscal policy over time.

Policy Coordination in Fiscal Federalism; Drawing Lessons From the Dubai Debt Crisis

Using the cyclically adjusted non-hydrocarbon primary balance, this paper investigates the evolution of the fiscal policy stance in the United Arab Emirates at consolidated and sub-national levels in the run-up and after the crisis. The empirical findings show that procyclical fiscal policies prior to the crisis reinforced the financial sector cycle, exacerbated the economic upswing, and thereby contributed to the build-up of macro-financial vulnerabilities. The paper also sets out policy lessons to develop a rule-based fiscal framework that would help strengthen fiscal policy coordination between the various layers of government and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and a more equitable intergenerational distribution of wealth.

Searching for the Finance-Growth Nexus in Libya

This paper investigates the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Libya during the period 1970–2010. The empirical results vary with estimation methodology and model specification, but indicate the lack of long-run relationship between financial intermediation and nonhydrocarbon output growth. The OLS estimation shows that financial development has a statistically significant negative effect on real nonhydrocarbon GDP per capita growth. However, the VAR-based estimations present statistically insignificant results, albeit still attaching a negative coefficient to financial intermediation. It appears that nonhydrocarbon economic activity depends largely on government spending, which is in turn determined by the country’s hydrocarbon earnings.

A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine

This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010 Analyzing two very distinct commodities-crude oil and fine wine, we find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected effect, aggregate demand growth is the key factor. The empirical results show that while advanced economies account for more than half of global consumption, emerging economies make up the bulk of the incremental change in demand, thereby having a greater weight in commodity price formation. The results also show that the shift in the composition of aggregate commodity demand is a recent phenomenon.

Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism

This paper provides an empirical analysis of how the frequency and severity of terrorism affect government revenue and expenditure during the period 1970–2013 using a panel dataset on 153 countries. We find that terrorism has only a marginal negative effect on tax revenue performance, after controlling for economic and institutional factors. This effect is also not robust to alternative specifications and empirical strategies. On the other hand, we find strong evidence that terrorism is associated with an increase in military spending as a percent of GDP (and a share of total government expenditure). Our estimations reveal that this impact is greater when terrorist attacks are frequent and result in a large number of fatalities. Empirical findings also support the view that public finances in developing and low-income countries are more vulnerable to terrorism than those in countries that are richer and diversified.

Desynchronized; The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC

This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald asymmetric band-pass filter and a mean corrected concordance index, the paper identifies the degree of non-hydrocarbon business cycle synchronization - one of the main prerequisites for countries considering to establish a monetary union. The empirical results show low and heterogeneous synchronization in non-hydrocarbon business cycles across the GCC economies, and a decline in the degree of synchronicity in the 2000s, if Kuwait is excluded from the sample, partly because of divergent fiscal policies.