Seung-Hwan Yoo

A decision support system for agricultural drought management using risk assessment

Since predicted changes in climate will modify temperature and rainfall patterns, there are concerns about the potential impacts of these changes on agricultural drought and agricultural water resources management. An agricultural drought is influenced by several factors such as rainfall, soil characteristics, crops, and reservoir water supply and may be defined as the imbalance of water circulation in paddy and water environments. In particular, soil moisture and water supply for reservoir demand are the most direct and important indicators of agricultural drought events. In the past, conventional drought management approaches based on climatic and meteorological observations have been the primary tools used for measuring drought severity. Because of the spatial and temporal variability and multiple impacts of drought, it is necessary to improve tools to determine the onset, severity, spatial extent, and end of the drought conditions. Improved and available data for mapping and monitoring of this phenomenon are also needed. Effective and efficient drought management can be achieved through drought monitoring based on the ability to assess current conditions and provide improved tools to adapt and mitigate the impacts of future changes. In this article, a methodology is developed to support the risk-based decision-making process involved in agricultural drought management using the following four strategies: drought assessment and monitoring, drought forecast and outlook, drought countermeasures, and drought records management.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Paddy Water Demand and Unit Duty of Water using High-Resolution Climate Scenarios

For stable and sustainable crop production, understanding the effects of climate changes on agricultural water resources is necessary to minimize the negative effects which might occur due to shifting weather conditions. Although various studies have been carried out in Korea concerning changes in evapotranspiration and irrigation water requirement, the findings are still difficult to utilize fordesigning the demand and unit duty of water, which are the design criteria of irrigation systems. In this study, the impact analysis of climate changes on the paddy water demand and unit duty of water was analyzed based on the high resolution climate change scenarios (specifically under the A1B scenario) provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. The result of the study indicated that average changes in the paddy water demand in eight irrigation districts were estimated as -2.4 % (2025s), -0.2 % (2055s), and 3.2 % (2085s). The unit duty of water was estimated to increase on an average within 2 % during paddy transplanting season and within 5 % during growing season after transplanting. This result could be utilized for irrigation system design, agricultural water resource development, and rice paddy cultivation policy-making in South Korea.

Prediction of paddy field change based on climate change scenarios using the CLUE model

This study simulated land-cover change using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model and predicted future changes in paddy field area under climate change scenarios A1B, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The CLUE model is a dynamic spatial land-use simulation model considering competition among land-use types in relation to socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. Yongin, Icheon, and Anseong, South Korea, were selected as study areas, and scenarios were developed for regional-level simulation of land-use change. Binary logistic regressions were also conducted to evaluate the relationships between land uses and its driving factors. Finally, the simulation results suggested future changes of paddy field area under the scenario conditions. In all the scenarios, demand for cropland, including paddy and upland, decreased continuously throughout the simulation period of 2000–2100. The decrease in cropland area was particularly steep in scenario A2 in 2050. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) values indicated that the spatial patterns of land-cover types based on the regressions were reasonably explained by the driving factors. According to the scenarios developed and location characteristics, in scenario A1B, paddy field areas were mainly transformed into built-up areas, while in the other scenarios paddy field areas were mainly transformed into forest. The approach used in this study is expected to enable exploration of future land-use changes under other development constraints and detailed scenarios.

Analyzing Consumptive Use of Water and Yields of Paddy Rice by Climate Change

Agriculture is dependable to weather condition and its change so that it is necessary to understand the impacts of climatic change. The aim of this study is to analyze the change of consumptive use of water and rice yield due to climate change using CERES-Rice. In this study, the weather data of three emission scenario of A1B, A2 and B1 created from CGCM (Coupled General Circulation Model) were used from 2011 to 2100, and downscaled daily weather data were simulated using LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator). The input data for cultivated condition for simulating CERSE (Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis)-Rice were created referring to standard cultivation method of paddy rice in Korea. The results showed that consumptive uses of water for paddy rice were projected decreasing to 4.8 % (2025s), 9.1 % (2055s), 12.6 % (2085s) comparing to the baseline value of 403.5 mm in A2 scenario. The rice yield of baseline was 450.7 kg/10a and projected increasing to -0.4 % (2025s), 3.9 % (2055s), 17.5 % (2085s) in A1B scenario. The results demonstrated relationships between consumptive use of water and rice yields due to climate change and can be used for the agricultural water resources development planning and cultivation method of paddy rice for the future.

Prediction of Land-cover Change Based on Climate Change Scenarios and Regional Characteristics using Cluster Analysis

This study was conducted to predict future land-cover changes under climate change scenarios and to cluster analysis of regional land-cover characteristics. To simulate the future land-cover according to climate change scenarios - A1B, A2, and B1 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation with socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. Gyeonggi-do were selected as study areas. The simulation results from 2010 to 2040 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. All scenarios resulted in a gradual decrease in paddy area, while upland area continuously increased. A1B scenario showed the highest increase in built-up area, but all scenarios showed only slight changes in forest area. As a result of cluster analysis with the land-cover component scores, 31 si/gun in Gyeonggi-do were classified into three clusters. This approach is expected to be useful for evaluating and simulating land-use changes in relation to development constraints and scenarios. The results could be used as fundamental basis for providing policy direction by considering regional land-cover characteristics.

Watershed Scale Drought Assessment using Soil Moisture Index

Although the drought impacts are comparably not catastrophic, the results from the drought are fatal in various social and economical aspects. Different from other natural hazards including floods, drought advances slowly and spreads widely, so that the preparedness is quite important and effective to mitigate the impacts from drought. Soil moisture depletion directly resulted from rainfall shortage is highly related with drought, especially for crops and vegetations, therefore a drought can be evaluated using soil moisture conditions. In this study, SMI (Soil Moisture Index) was developed to measure a drought condition using soil moisture model and frequency analysis for return periods. Runs theory was applied to quantify the soil moisture depletions for the drought condition in terms of severity, magnitude and duration. In 1994, 1995, 2000, and 2001, Korea had experienced several severe droughts, so the SMI developed was applied to evaluate applicability in the mid-range hydrologic unit watershed scale. From the results, SMI demonstrated the drought conditions with a quite sensitive manner and can be used as an indicator to measure a drought condition.

Regional Drought Assessment Considering Climate Change and Relationship with Agricultural Water in Jeju Island

Recently, the occurrences of droughts have been increased because of global warming and climate change. Water resources that mostly rely on groundwater are particularly vulnerable to the impact of precipitation variation, one of the major elements of climate change, are very sensitive to changes in the seasonal distribution as well as the average annual change in the viewpoint of agricultural activity. In this study, the status of drought for the present and future on Jeju Island which entirely rely on groundwater using SPI and PDSI were analyzed considering regional distribution of crops in terms of land use and fluctuation of water demand. The results showed that the precipitation distribution in Jeju Island is changed in intensity as well as seasonal variation of extreme events and the amount increase of precipitation during the dry season in the spring and fall indicated that agricultural water demand and supply policies would be considered by regional characteristics, especially the western region with largest market garden crops. Regarding the simulated future drought, the drought would be mitigated in the SPI method because of considering total rainfall only excluding intensity variation, while more intensified in the PDSI because it considers the evapotranspiration as well as rainfall as time passed. Moreover, the drought in the northern and western regions is getting worse than in the southern region so that the establishment of regional customized policies for water supply in Jeju Island is needed.

Optimizing Rules for Releasing Environmental Water in Enlarged Agricultural Reservoirs

The main purposes of the agricultural reservoir enlargement (ARE) project are to secure water supply reliability (WSR) for agriculture and to release environmental water during dry seasons. In this study, an operational rule that will simultaneously satisfy both the above issues was developed. Initial amount of water storage at the beginning of non-irrigation season (1st October) was divided into 3 stages, and the target level of water storage at the beginning of irrigation seasons (1st April) was set up. Required operational curves and release amounts were estimated based on the stages and target water levels. To evaluate the applicability of this rule, the amount of water released for environmental purposes and WSRs were analyzed for three reservoirs (Unam, Jangchi and Topjeong). The ratio between annual amount of release and additional amount of water storage were 1.6, 1.85, and 4.1 for the Unam, Jangchi, Tapjeong reservoirs, respectively. Also, the WSRs of all reservoirs were found to become higher than when the design standard was applied. Therefore, it is considered that the proposed rule is more suitable for the enlarged agricultural reservoirs operation as it satisfies the WSRs while securing the environmental water release.

Application of Meteorological Drought Indices for North Korea

North Korea is one of the vulnerable countries facing the threat of a drought, so that it is unavoidable to experience fatal damage when drought is occurred, and it is necessary to improve the drought response capability of water resources systems. However, it is still difficult to find research efforts for drought characteristics and drought management in North Korea. This study is to quantify drought duration and magnitude and to analyze drought characteristics in North Korea. In order to quantitatively identify historical drought conditions and to evaluate their variability, drought indices are commonly used. In this study, drought indices including dry-day index, deciles of normal precipitation, Phillips drought index, standardized precipitation index and Palmer drought severity index are calculated and compared monthly using the weather data for the twenty one meteorological stations in North Korea. The indices compared with the drought damage records that have reported from 1990 to present to understand how the indices can explain the drought. A comparative study was also conducted to evaluate the relative severity of the significant droughts occurred during 2000 and 2001 which were reported as the worst drought in North Korea. Drought indices calculated from this study demonstrated that those can be the effective tools in quantitatively evaluating drought severity and measures of drought. Thus it is recommended the distributed trend of drought be considered when the plan or measures for drought in North Korea are established.

Analysis of Soil Moisture Recession Characteristics in Conifer Forest

Forest area covers 64 % of the national land of Korea and the forest plays a pivotal role in the hydrological process such as flood, drought, runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, etc. In this study, soil moisture monitoring for conifer forest in experimental forest of Seoul National University has been conducted using FDR (Frequency Domain Reflection) for 6 different soil layers, 10, 20, 30, 60, 90 and 120 cm during 2009~2010, and precipitation data was collected from nearby AWS (Automatic Weather Station). Soil moisture monitoring data were used to estimate soil moisture recession constant (SMRC) for analyzing soil moisture recession characteristics. From the results, empirical soil moisture recession equations were estimated and validated to determine the feasibility of the result, and soil moisture contents of measured and calculated showed a similar tendency from April to November. Thus, the results can be applied for soil moisture estimation and provided the basic knowledge in forest soil moisture consumption. Nevertheless, this approach demonstrated applicability limitations during winter and early spring season due to freezing and melting of snow and ice causing peculiar change of soil moisture contents.