Sha Yu

Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

Significance Urban density significantly impacts urban energy use and the quality of life of urban residents. Here, we provide a global-scale analysis of future urban densities and associated energy use in the built environment under different urbanization scenarios. The relative importance of urban density and energy-efficient technologies varies geographically. In developing regions, urban density tends to be the more critical factor in building energy use. Large-scale retrofitting of building stock later rather than sooner results in more energy savings by the middle of the century. Reducing building energy use, improving the local environment, and mitigating climate change can be achieved through systemic efforts that take potential co-benefits and trade-offs of both higher urban density and building energy efficiency into account. Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by the middle of the century will be between 45 and 59 exajoules per year (corresponding to an increase of 7–40% since 2010). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban densities of rapidly growing cities in Asia and particularly China. Dense urban development leads to less urban energy use overall. Waiting to retrofit the existing built environment until markets are ready in about 5 years to widely deploy the most advanced renovation technologies leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared with the business-as-usual scenario in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contributes to energy savings in North America and Europe. Systemic efforts that focus on both urban form, of which urban density is an indicator, and energy-efficient technologies, but that also account for potential co-benefits and trade-offs with human well-being can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in growing cities in the developing world, such efforts can improve the well-being of billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas.

Building Energy Efficiency in India: Compliance Evaluation of Energy Conservation Building Code

INTRODUCTIONIndia is experiencing an unprecedented construction boom. The country doubled its floorspace between 2001 and 2005 and is expected to add 35 billion m2 of new buildings by 2050 (Shnapp and Laustsen, 2013). Buildings account for 35% of total final energy consumption in India today, and building energy use is growing at 8% annually (Rawal et al., 2012). Studies have shown that carbon policies will have little effect on reducing building energy demand (Chaturvedi et al., 2014; Yu et al., 2014). Chaturvedi et al. (2014) predicted that, if there are no specific sectoral policies to curb building energy use, final energy demand of the Indian building sector will grow over five times by the end of this century, driven by rapid income and population growth. The growing energy demand in buildings is accompanied by a transition from traditional biomass to commercial fuels, particularly an increase in electricity use. This also leads to a rapid increase in carbon emissions and aggravates power shortages in India. Growth in building energy use poses a challenge for the Indian government.To curb energy consumption in buildings, the Indian government issued the Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) in 2007, which applies to commercial buildings with a connected load of 100 kW or 120kVA. Previous studies estimated that the implementation of ECBC could help save 25-40% of energy, compared to reference buildings without such energy-efficiency measures (IEEMA, 2007; Tulsyan et al., 2013). However, the impact of ECBC depends on the effectiveness of its enforcement and compliance. Currently, the majority of buildings in India are not ECBC-compliant. The United Nations Development Programme projected that code compliance in India would reach 35% by 2015 and 64% by 2017 (UNDP, 2011). Whether the projected targets can be achieved depends on how the code enforcement system is designed and implemented.Although the development of ECBC lies in the hands of the national government - the Bureau of Energy Efficiency under the Ministry of Power, the adoption and implementation of ECBC largely relies on state and local governments. Six years after ECBCs enactment, only two states and one territory out of 35 Indian states and union territories formally adopted ECBC and six additional states are in the legislative process of approving ECBC (BEE, 2013). There are several barriers that slow down the process. First, stakeholders, such as architects, developers, and state and local governments, lack awareness of building energy efficiency, and do not have enough capacity and resources to implement ECBC. Second, most jurisdictions have not yet established effective legal mechanisms for implementing ECBC; specifically, ECBC is not included in local building by-laws in most jurisdictions or incorporated into the building permitting process. Third, there is not a systematic approach to measuring and verifying compliance and energy savings, and thus the market does not have enough confidence in ECBC.Previous studies and reports have addressed the first and second barriers. Kumar et al. (2010), Rawal et al. (2012), and Williams and Levine (2012) identified implementation strategies to improve capacity and remove institutional barriers. The study by Yu et al. (2012) and the Administrative StaffCollege of India and the Natural Resources Defense Council (2012) provided suggestions on motivating stakeholders and implementing ECBC at the state level. Yu et al. (2013) and the Shakti Foundation (2013) proposed using third-party inspectors to help states build capacity and roll out ECBC implementation rapidly. However, none of the previous studies provides solutions on how to evaluate ECBC compliance and associated energy savings. Compliance evaluation is critical. It helps build confidence in the private sector and facilitates deployment of energy efficiency technologies. In addition, compliance evaluation can help roll out implementation, as state and local governments can prioritize areas for enforcement and develop incentives and penalties based on evaluation results. …

An integrated assessment of the potential of agricultural and forestry residues for energy production in China

Biomass has been widely recognized as an important energy source with high potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while minimizing environmental pollution. In this study, we employ the Global Change Assessment Model to estimate the potential of agricultural and forestry residue biomass for energy production in China. Potential availability of residue biomass as an energy source was analyzed for the 21st century under different climate policy scenarios. Currently, the amount of total annual residue biomass, averaged over 2003–2007, is around 15 519 PJ in China, consisting of 10 818 PJ from agriculture residues (70%) and 4701 PJ forestry residues (30%). We estimate that 12 693 PJ of the total biomass is available for energy production, with 66% derived from agricultural residue and 34% from forestry residue. Most of the available residue is from south central China (3347 PJ), east China (2862 PJ) and south‐west China (2229 PJ), which combined exceeds 66% of the total national biomass. Under the reference scenario without carbon tax, the potential availability of residue biomass for energy production is projected to be 3380 PJ by 2050 and 4108 PJ by 2095, respectively. When carbon tax is imposed, biomass availability increases substantially. For the CCS 450 ppm scenario, availability of biomass increases to 9002 PJ (2050) and 11 524 PJ (2095), respectively. For the 450 ppm scenario without CCS, 9183 (2050) and 11 150 PJ (2095) residue biomass, respectively, is projected to be available. Moreover, the implementation of CCS will have a little impact on the supply of residue biomass after 2035. Our results suggest that residue biomass has the potential to be an important component in Chinas sustainable energy production portfolio. As a low carbon emission energy source, climate change policies that involve carbon tariff and CCS technology promote the use of residue biomass for energy production in a low carbon‐constrained world.

A methodology for calculating transport emissions in cities with limited traffic data: Case study of diesel particulates and black carbon emissions in Murmansk

This paper presents a methodology for calculating exhaust emissions from on-road transport in cities with low-quality traffic data and outdated vehicle registries. The methodology consists of data collection approaches and emission calculation methods. For data collection, the paper suggests using video survey and parking lot survey methods developed for the International Vehicular Emissions model. Additional sources of information include data from the largest transportation companies, vehicle inspection stations, and official vehicle registries. The paper suggests using the European Computer Programme to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT) 4 model to calculate emissions, especially in countries that implemented European emissions standards. If available, the local emission factors should be used instead of the default COPERT emission factors. The paper also suggests additional steps in the methodology to calculate emissions only from diesel vehicles. We applied this methodology to calculate black carbon emissions from diesel on-road vehicles in Murmansk, Russia. The results from Murmansk show that diesel vehicles emitted 11.7 tons of black carbon in 2014. The main factors determining the level of emissions are the structure of the vehicle fleet and the level of vehicle emission controls. Vehicles without controls emit about 55% of black carbon emissions.

Recommendations on Implementing the Energy Conservation Building Code in Rajasthan, India

India launched the Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) in 2007 and Indian Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) recently indicated that it would move to mandatory implementation in the 12th Five-Year Plan. The State of Rajasthan adopted ECBC with minor modifications; the new regulation is known as the Energy Conservation Building Directives – Rajasthan 2011 (ECBD-R). It became mandatory in Rajasthan on September 28, 2011. This report provides recommendations on an ECBD-R enforcement roadmap for the State of Rajasthan.

India’s R&D for Energy Efficient Buildings: Insights for U.S. Cooperation with India

This report outlines India’s current activities and future plans in building energy efficiency R&D and deployment, and maps them with R&D activities under the Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Program. The assessment, conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in FY10, reviews major R&D programs in India including programs under the 11th Five-Year Plan, programs under the NEF, R&D and other programs under state agencies and ongoing projects in major research institutions .

Energy Efficiency Pilot Projects in Jaipur: Testing the Energy Conservation Building Code

The Malaviya National Institute of Technology (MNIT) in Jaipur, India is constructing two new buildings on its campus that allow it to test implementation of the Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC), which Rajasthan made mandatory in 2011. PNNL has been working with MNIT to document progress on ECBC implementation in these buildings.

Proposed Training Plan to Improve Building Energy Efficiency in Vietnam

Vietnam has experienced fast growth in energy consumption in the past decade, with annual growth rate of over 12 percent. This is accompanied by the fast increase in commercial energy use, driven by rapid industrialization, expansion of motorized transport, and increasing energy use in residential and commercial buildings. Meanwhile, Vietnam is experiencing rapid urbanization at a rate of 3.4 percent per year; and the majority of the growth centered in and near major cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. This has resulted in a construction boom in Vietnam.