Shaen Corbet

Turning Tigers into PIIGS: The Role of Leverage in the Irish Economic Collapse

Abstract Purpose This chapter examines the roles and challenges for the Irish economy in the aftermath of the collapse of the Celtic Tiger and the onset of the 2008 economic crisis. Specifically, it does review the role that Government, the Central Bank of Ireland, and the Financial Regulator had before, during and after the collapse of both the Irish banking system and property market. This chapter explains the drivers behind the growth of the Celtic Tiger and the sources of leverage that amplified the severity of the subsequent collapse. Specifically, this chapter focuses on the changes that have since been made and provides a review of the lessons that can be obtained from the collapse. Methodology/approach The results presented in this chapter are based on analysis of secondary sources and a literature review to determine conceptual and theoretical frameworks for identifying the specific issues that the Irish economy endured since the 2008 economic crisis and the red flags and signals that were either missed or ignored. Findings Combined with the subprime collapse of 2007 and the international sovereign debt crisis evident since 2008, Ireland and the actions of its regulators and policy makers undoubtedly generated not only a catalyst to financial ruin, but also an incubator to aid its severity. The precise drivers that created the Celtic Tiger remained unchanged and played a significant role in the subsequent collapse. Banks were leveraged towards the Irish property market and the role of leverage in financial markets created mispricing, to which the basic principles of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) failed. This miscalculation of risk was severe and destructive for the real economy. The reward for this error was a place in history as an ‘I’ in the derogatory term ‘PIIGS’. Practical implications This chapter could be used as teaching material for undergraduate and masters programmes in economics and finance. It provides a response to further understand the behaviour of the Irish economy during the development of the Celtic Tiger and the subsequent financial collapse that enveloped the Irish state. Originality/value This chapter discusses the role of leverage throughout a financial system and the necessity for financial monitors to promote an environment of sustainability and financial endurance; that which can survive an international financial crisis event.

Do industrial incidents in the chemical sector create equity market contagion

INTRODUCTION This paper examines a number of US chemical industry incidents and their effect on equity prices of the incident company. Furthermore, this paper then examines the contagion effect of this incident on direct competitors. METHOD Event study methodology is used to assess the impact of chemical incidents on both incident and competitor companies. RESULTS This paper finds that the incident company experiences deeper negative abnormal returns as the number of injuries and fatalities as a result of the incident increases. The equity value of the competitor companies suffer substantial losses stemming from contagion effects when disasters that occur cause ten or more injuries and fatalities, but benefit from the incident through increasing equity value when the level of injury and fatality is minor. CONCLUSIONS Presence of contagion suggests collective action may reduce value destruction brought about by safety incidents that result in significant injury or loss of life. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS This research can be used as a resource to promote and justify the cost of safety mechanisms within the chemical industry, as incidents have been shown to negatively affect the equity value of the not just the incident company, but also their direct competitors.

An index of financial market stress for the United Kingdom

We construct and develop a new financial market stress index using twenty-three headline U.K. financial data series. A logistic regression framework provides a parsimonious representation of financial market stress in the U.K. based on the market dynamics around the time of Bank of England crisis-alleviating economic interventions. Our results present clear evidence that the Bank of England’s swift and decisive actions stemmed financial market stress as measured by the stress index.

Quantifying the Effects of the Inclusion and Segregation of Contracts for Difference in Australian Equity Markets

This study examines the effects that Contracts for Difference (CFDs) have had on the Australian equity market, either as an accelerant for mispricing, or as a source of increased market functionality through the addition of a new tradable product and increased liquidity. The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) made the decision to segregate CFDs to a separate ring-fenced exchange in November 2007. This study uses EGARCH techniques to test for the effects of CFDs on return volatility at the time of CFD inclusion and segregation in Australian equity markets at the index and equity-specific level. A fully worked explanation and example of a CFD-influenced ‘overhang’ is also provided. The results provide evidence that cannot reject the presence of ‘overhangs’ in Australian equity markets.

Cryptocurrency Reaction to FOMC Announcements: Evidence of Heterogeneity Based on Blockchain Stack Position

We examine the response of a broad set of digital assets to US Federal Fund interest rate and quantitative easing announcements, specifically examining associated volatility spillover and feedback effects. We classify each digital asset into one of three categories: Currencies; Protocols; and Decentralised Applications (dApps). Currency-based digital assets experience idiosyncratic spillovers in the period immediately after US monetary policy announcements, while application or protocol-based digital assets are largely immune to policy volatility spillover and feedback. Mineable digital assets are found to be more susceptible to monetary policy volatility spillovers and feedback than non-mineable. Responses indicate a diverse market within which, not all assets are comparable to Bitcoin.

Datestamping the Bitcoin and Ethereum Bubbles

We examine the existence and dates of pricing bubbles in Bitcoin and Ethereum, two popular cryptocurrencies using the (Phillips et al., 2011) methodology. In contrast to previous papers, we examine the fundamental drivers of the price. Having derived ratios that are economically and computationally sensible, we use these variables to detect and datestamp bubbles. Our conclusion is that there are periods of clear bubble behaviour, with Bitcoin now almost certainly in a bubble phase.

Exploring the Dynamic Relationships between Cryptocurrencies and Other Financial Assets

We analyse, in the time and frequency domains, the relationships between three popular cryptocurrencies and a variety of other financial assets. We find evidence of the relative isolation of these assets from the financial and economic assets. Our results show that cryptocurrencies may offer diversification benefits for investors with short investment horizons. Time variation in the linkages reflects external economic and financial shocks.

Regulatory Cybercrime: A Hacking-Based Mechanism to Regulate and Supervise Corporate Cyber Governance?

This paper examines the impact of cybercrime and hacking events on equity market volatility across publicly traded corporations. The volatility influence of these cybercrime events is shown to be dependent on the number of clients exposed across all sectors and the type of the cyber security breach event, with significantly large volatility effects presented for companies who find themselves exposed to cybercrime in the form of hacking. Evidence is presented to suggest that corporations with large data breaches are punished substantially in the form of stock market volatility and significantly reduced abnormal stock returns. Companies with lower levels of market capitalisation are found to be most susceptible. In an environment where corporate data protection should be paramount, minor breaches appear to be relatively unpunished by the stock market. We also show that there is a growing importance in the contagion channel from cyber security breaches to markets volatility. Overall, our results support the proposition that acting in a controlled capacity from within a ring-fenced incentives system, hackers may in fact provide the appropriate mechanism for discovery and deterrence of weak corporate cyber security practices. This mechanism can help alleviate the systemic weaknesses in the existent mechanisms for cyber security oversight and enforcement.

Financial Digital Disruptors and Cyber-Security Risks: Paired and Systemic

The scale and intensity of digital financial criminality has become more apparent and audacious over the past fifteen years. To counteract this escalating threat, financial technology (FinTech) and monetary and financial institutions (MFI) have attempted to upgrade their internal technological infrastructures to mitigate the risk of a catastrophic technological collapse. However, these attempts have been hampered through the financial stresses generated from the recent international banking crises. Significant contagion channels in the aftermath of cybercriminal events have also been recently uncovered, indicating that a single major event may generate sectoral and industry-wide volatility spillovers. As the skillset and variety of tactics used by cybercriminals develops further in an environment of stagnating and underfunded defensive technological structures, the probability of a devastating hacking event increases, along with the necessity for regulatory intervention. This paper explores and discusses the range of threats and consequences emanating from financial digital disruptors through cybercrime and potential avenues that may be utilised to counteract such risk.

What the Hack: Systematic Risk Contagion from Cyber Events

This paper examines the impact of cybercrime and hacking events on equity market volatility across publicly traded corporations. The volatility influence of these cybercrime events is shown to be dependent on the number of clients exposed across all sectors and the type of the cyber security breach event, with significantly large volatility effects presented for companies who find themselves exposed to cybercrime in the form of hacking. Evidence is presented to suggest that corporations with large data breaches are punished substantially in the form of stock market volatility and significantly reduced abnormal stock returns. Companies with lower levels of market capitalisation are found to be most susceptible. In an environment where corporate data protection should be paramount, minor breaches appear to be relatively unpunished by the stock market. We also show that there is a growing importance in the contagion channel from cyber security breaches to markets volatility. Overall, our results support the proposition that acting in a controlled capacity from within a ring-fenced incentives system, hackers may in fact provide the appropriate mechanism for discovery and deterrence of weak corporate cyber security practices. This mechanism can help alleviate the systemic weaknesses in the existent mechanisms for cyber security oversight and enforcement.