Shahera Banu

Dengue transmission in the Asia‐Pacific region: impact of climate change and socio‐environmental factors

Objective  To review the scientific evidence about the impact of climate change and socio‐environmental factors on dengue transmission, particularly in the Asia‐Pacific region.

Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Weather variables, mainly temperature and humidity influence vectors, viruses, human biology, ecology and consequently the intensity and distribution of the vector-borne diseases. There is evidence that warmer temperature due to climate change will influence the dengue transmission. However, long term scenario-based projections are yet to be developed. Here, we assessed the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in a megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh and projected the future dengue risk attributable to climate change. Our results show that weather variables particularly temperature and humidity were positively associated with dengue transmission. The effects of weather variables were observed at a lag of four months. We projected that assuming a temperature increase of 3.3°C without any adaptation measure and changes in socio-economic condition, there will be a projected increase of 16,030 dengue cases in Dhaka by the end of this century. This information might be helpful for the public health authorities to prepare for the likely increase of dengue due to climate change. The modelling framework used in this study may be applicable to dengue projection in other cities.

Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955-2004.

Background Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most important emerging arboviral human diseases. Globally, DF incidence has increased by 30-fold over the last fifty years, and the geographic range of the virus and its vectors has expanded. The disease is now endemic in more than 120 countries in tropical and subtropical parts of the world. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region over a 50-year period, and identified the disease’s cluster areas. Methodology and Findings The World Health Organization’s DengueNet provided the annual number of DF cases in 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for the period 1955 to 2004. This fifty-year dataset was divided into five ten-year periods as the basis for the investigation of DF transmission trends. Space-time cluster analyses were conducted using scan statistics to detect the disease clusters. This study shows an increasing trend in the spatiotemporal distribution of DF in the Asia-Pacific region over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Malaysia are identified as the most likely clusters (relative risk = 13.02) of DF transmission in this region in the period studied (1995 to 2004). The study also indicates that, for the most part, DF transmission has expanded southwards in the region. Conclusions This information will lead to the improvement of DF prevention and control strategies in the Asia-Pacific region by prioritizing control efforts and directing them where they are most needed.

Space‐time clusters of dengue fever in Bangladesh

Objective  To examine the space‐time clustering of dengue fever (DF) transmission in Bangladesh using geographical information system and spatial scan statistics (SaTScan).

Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh

Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.

Nature and Extent of Genetic Diversity of Dengue Viruses Determined by 454 Pyrosequencing

Dengue virus (DENV) populations are characteristically highly diverse. Regular lineage extinction and replacement is an important dynamic DENV feature, and most DENV lineage turnover events are associated with increased incidence of disease. The role of genetic diversity in DENV lineage extinctions is not understood. We investigated the nature and extent of genetic diversity in the envelope (E) gene of DENV serotype 1 representing different lineages histories. A region of the DENV genome spanning the E gene was amplified and sequenced by Roche/454 pyrosequencing. The pyrosequencing results identified distinct sub-populations (haplotypes) for each DENV-1 E gene. A phylogenetic tree was constructed with the consensus DENV-1 E gene nucleotide sequences, and the sequences of each constructed haplotype showed that the haplotypes segregated with the Sanger consensus sequence of the population from which they were drawn. Haplotypes determined through pyrosequencing identified a recombinant DENV genome that could not be identified through Sanger sequencing. Nucleotide level sequence diversities of DENV-1 populations determined from SNP analysis were very low, estimated from 0.009–0.01. There were also no stop codon, frameshift or non-frameshift mutations observed in the E genes of any lineage. No significant correlations between the accumulation of deleterious mutations or increasing genetic diversity and lineage extinction were observed (p>0.5). Although our hypothesis that accumulation of deleterious mutations over time led to the extinction and replacement of DENV lineages was ultimately not supported by the data, our data does highlight the significant technical issues that must be resolved in the way in which population diversity is measured for DENV and other viruses. The results provide an insight into the within-population genetic structure and diversity of DENV-1 populations.

Joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission: epidemiological evidence

To assess the epidemiological evidence on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission.

Culture-independent detection of chlorhexidine resistance genes qacA/B and smr in bacterial DNA recovered from body sites treated with chlorhexidine-containing dressings

Purpose. Dressings containing chlorhexidine gluconate (CHG) are increasingly used in clinical environments for prevention of infection at central venous catheter insertion sites. Increased tolerance to this biocide in staphylococci is primarily associated with the presence of qacA/B and smr genes. Methodology. We used a culture‐independent method to assess the prevalence of these genes in 78 DNA specimens recovered from the skin of 43 patients at catheter insertion sites in the arm that were covered with CHG dressings. Results. Of the 78 DNA specimens analysed, 52 (67%) possessed qacA/B and 14 (18%) possessed smr; all samples positive for smr were also positive for qacA/B. These prevalence rates were not statistically greater than those observed in a subsample of specimens taken from non‐CHG treated contralateral arms and non‐CHG‐dressing exposed arms. A statistically greater proportion of specimens with greater than 72 h exposure to CHG dressings were qac‐positive (P=0.04), suggesting that the patients were contaminated with bacteria or DNA containing qacA/B during their hospital stay. The presence of qac genes was not positively associated with the presence of DNA specific for Staphylococcus epidermidis and Staphylococcus aureus in these specimens. Conclusion. Our results show that CHG genes are highly prevalent on hospital patients’ skin, even in the absence of viable bacteria.

Molecular Comparison of Bacterial Communities on Peripheral Intravenous Catheters and Matched Skin Swabs

Skin bacteria at peripheral intravenous catheter (PIVC) insertion sites pose a serious risk of microbial migration and subsequent colonisation of PIVCs, and the development of catheter related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs). Common skin bacteria are often associated with CRBSIs, therefore the bacterial communities at PIVC skin sites are likely to have major implications for PIVC colonisation. This study aimed to determine the bacterial community structures on skin at PIVC insertion sites and to compare the diversity with associated PIVCs. A total of 10 PIVC skin site swabs and matching PIVC tips were collected by a research nurse from 10 hospitalised medical/surgical patients at catheter removal. All swabs and PIVCs underwent traditional culture and high-throughput sequencing. The bacterial communities on PIVC skin swabs and matching PIVCs were diverse and significantly associated (correlation coefficient = 0.7, p<0.001). Methylobacterium spp. was the dominant genus in all PIVC tip samples, but not so for skin swabs. Sixty-one percent of all reads from the PIVC tips and 36% of all reads from the skin swabs belonged to this genus. Staphylococcus spp., (26%), Pseudomonas spp., (10%) and Acinetobacter spp. (10%) were detected from skin swabs but not from PIVC tips. Most skin associated bacteria commonly associated with CRBSIs were observed on skin sites, but not on PIVCs. Diverse bacterial communities were observed at skin sites despite skin decolonization at PIVC insertion. The positive association of skin and PIVC tip communities provides further evidence that skin is a major source of PIVC colonisation via bacterial migration but microbes present may be different to those traditionally identified via culture methods. The results provide new insights into the colonisation of catheters and potential pathogenesis of bacteria associated with CRBSI, and may assist in developing new strategies designed to reduce the risk of CRBSI.

Dengue: Emergence, Determinants and Climate Change

Dengue is one of the most important emerging arboviral diseases in the world. It has been estimated that 3.6 billion people in tropical areas, and approximately 120 million travellers, are at risk of dengue. More than 500,000 people with severe dengue require hospitalisation each year. A large proportion of these are children, and about 2.5 % of those affected die. The incidence of dengue has increased 30-fold over the last 50 years, and the geographic range of the virus and its vectors has also expanded. The disease is now endemic in tropical and subtropical regions in more than 128 countries. Dengue transmission involves a complex ecology, contributed through various factors such as virus, vector, host and environment. This chapter presents an overview of the current knowledge of dengue, its characteristics and ecology. It then discusses determinants of dengue and how climate change will impact its future distribution and transmission dynamics.