Shahriar Pervez

Mapping Irrigated Lands at 250-m Scale by Merging MODIS Data and National Agricultural Statistics

Accurate geospatial information on the extent of irrigated land improves our understanding of agricultural water use, local land surface processes, conservation or depletion of water resources, and components of the hydrologic budget. We have developed a method in a geospatial modeling framework that assimilates irrigation statistics with remotely sensed parameters describing vegetation growth conditions in areas with agricultural land cover to spatially identify irrigated lands at 250-m cell size across the conterminous United States for 2002. The geospatial model result, known as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Irrigated Agriculture Dataset (MIrAD-US), identified irrigated lands with reasonable accuracy in California and semiarid Great Plains states with overall accuracies of 92% and 75% and kappa statistics of 0.75 and 0.51, respectively. A quantitative accuracy assessment of MIrAD-US for the eastern region has not yet been conducted, and qualitative assessment shows that model improvements are needed for the humid eastern regions where the distinction in annual peak NDVI between irrigated and non-irrigated crops is minimal and county sizes are relatively small. This modeling approach enables consistent mapping of irrigated lands based upon USDA irrigation statistics and should lead to better understanding of spatial trends in irrigated lands across the conterminous United States. An improved version of the model with revised datasets is planned and will employ 2007 USDA irrigation statistics.

Establishing an operational waterhole monitoring system using satellite data and hydrologic modelling: Application in the pastoral regions of East Africa

Timely information on the availability of water and forage is important for the sustainable development of pastoral regions. The lack of such information increases the dependence of pastoral communities on perennial sources, which often leads to competition and conflicts. The provision of timely information is a challenging task, especially due to the scarcity or non-existence of conventional station-based hydrometeorological networks in the remote pastoral regions. A multi-source water balance modelling approach driven by satellite data was used to operationally monitor daily water level fluctuations across the pastoral regions of northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia. Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer data were used for mapping and estimating the surface area of the waterholes. Satellite-based rainfall, modelled run-off and evapotranspiration data were used to model daily water level fluctuations. Mapping of waterholes was achieved with 97% accuracy. Validation of modelled water levels with field-installed gauge data demonstrated the ability of the model to capture the seasonal patterns and variations. Validation results indicate that the model explained 60% of the observed variability in water levels, with an average root-mean-squared error of 22%. Up-to-date information on rainfall, evaporation, scaled water depth and condition of the waterholes is made available daily in near-real time via the Internet (http://watermon.tamu.edu). Such information can be used by non-governmental organizations, governmental organizations and other stakeholders for early warning and decision making. This study demonstrated an integrated approach for establishing an operational waterhole monitoring system using multi-source satellite data and hydrologic modelling.

Differential Heating in the Indian Ocean Differentially Modulates Precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra Basins

Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature dynamics play a prominent role in Asian summer monsoon variability. Two interactive climate modes of the Indo-Pacific—the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole mode—modulate the amount of precipitation over India, in addition to precipitation over Africa, Indonesia, and Australia. However, this modulation is not spatially uniform. The precipitation in southern India is strongly forced by the Indian Ocean dipole mode and ENSO. In contrast, across northern India, encompassing the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins, the climate mode influence on precipitation is much less. Understanding the forcing of precipitation in these river basins is vital for food security and ecosystem services for over half a billion people. Using 28 years of remote sensing observations, we demonstrate that (i) the tropical west-east differential heating in the Indian Ocean influences the Ganges precipitation and (ii) the north-south differential heating in the Indian Ocean influences the Brahmaputra precipitation. The El Nino phase induces warming in the warm pool of the Indian Ocean and exerts more influence on Ganges precipitation than Brahmaputra precipitation. The analyses indicate that both the magnitude and position of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean are important drivers for precipitation dynamics that can be effectively summarized using two new indices, one tuned for each basin. These new indices have the potential to aid forecasting of drought and flooding, to contextualize land cover and land use change, and to assess the regional impacts of climate change.