Shameek Ghosh

Hypotension Risk Prediction via Sequential Contrast Patterns of ICU Blood Pressure

Acute hypotension is a significant risk factor for in-hospital mortality at intensive care units. Prolonged hypotension can cause tissue hypoperfusion, leading to cellular dysfunction and severe injuries to multiple organs. Prompt medical interventions are thus extremely important for dealing with acute hypotensive episodes (AHE). Population level prognostic scoring systems for risk stratification of patients are suboptimal in such scenarios. However, the design of an efficient risk prediction system can significantly help in the identification of critical care patients, who are at risk of developing an AHE within a future time span. Toward this objective, a pattern mining algorithm is employed to extract informative sequential contrast patterns from hemodynamic data, for the prediction of hypotensive episodes. The hypotensive and normotensive patient groups are extracted from the MIMIC-II critical care research database, following an appropriate clinical inclusion criteria. The proposed method consists of a data preprocessing step to convert the blood pressure time series into symbolic sequences, using a symbolic aggregate approximation algorithm. Then, distinguishing subsequences are identified using the sequential contrast mining algorithm. These subsequences are used to predict the occurrence of an AHE in a future time window separated by a user-defined gap interval. Results indicate that the method performs well in terms of the prediction performance as well as in the generation of sequential patterns of clinical significance. Hence, the novelty of sequential patterns is in their usefulness as potential physiological biomarkers for building optimal patient risk stratification systems and for further clinical investigation of interesting patterns in critical care patients.

Septic shock prediction for ICU patients via coupled HMM walking on sequential contrast patterns

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE Critical care patient events like sepsis or septic shock in intensive care units (ICUs) are dangerous complications which can cause multiple organ failures and eventual death. Preventive prediction of such events will allow clinicians to stage effective interventions for averting these critical complications. METHODS It is widely understood that physiological conditions of patients on variables such as blood pressure and heart rate are suggestive to gradual changes over a certain period of time, prior to the occurrence of a septic shock. This work investigates the performance of a novel machine learning approach for the early prediction of septic shock. The approach combines highly informative sequential patterns extracted from multiple physiological variables and captures the interactions among these patterns via coupled hidden Markov models (CHMM). In particular, the patterns are extracted from three non-invasive waveform measurements: the mean arterial pressure levels, the heart rates and respiratory rates of septic shock patients from a large clinical ICU dataset called MIMIC-II. EVALUATION AND RESULTS For baseline estimations, SVM and HMM models on the continuous time series data for the given patients, using MAP (mean arterial pressure), HR (heart rate), and RR (respiratory rate) are employed. Single channel patterns based HMM (SCP-HMM) and multi-channel patterns based coupled HMM (MCP-HMM) are compared against baseline models using 5-fold cross validation accuracies over multiple rounds. Particularly, the results of MCP-HMM are statistically significant having a p-value of 0.0014, in comparison to baseline models. Our experiments demonstrate a strong competitive accuracy in the prediction of septic shock, especially when the interactions between the multiple variables are coupled by the learning model. CONCLUSIONS It can be concluded that the novelty of the approach, stems from the integration of sequence-based physiological pattern markers with the sequential CHMM model to learn dynamic physiological behavior, as well as from the coupling of such patterns to build powerful risk stratification models for septic shock patients.

Discovering pan-correlation patterns from time course data sets by efficient mining algorithms

Time-course correlation patterns can be positive or negative, and time-lagged with gaps. Mining all these correlation patterns help to gain broad insights on variable dependencies. Here, we prove that diverse types of correlation patterns can be represented by a generalized form of positive correlation patterns. We prove a correspondence between positive correlation patterns and sequential patterns, and present an efficient single-scan algorithm for mining the correlations. Evaluations on synthetic time course data sets, and yeast cell cycle gene expression data sets indicate that: (1) the algorithm has linear time increment in terms of increasing number of variables; (2) negative correlation patterns are abundant in real-world data sets; and (3) correlation patterns with time lags and gaps are abundant. Existing methods have only discovered incomplete forms of many of these patterns, and have missed some important patterns completely.

Predicting short-term ICU outcomes using a sequential contrast motif based classification framework

Critical ICU events like acute hypotension and septic shock are dangerous complications, leading to multiple organ failures and eventual death. Previously, pattern mining algorithms have been employed for extracting interesting rules in various clinical domains. However, the extracted rules are directly investigated by clinicians for diagnosing a disease. Towards this purpose, there is a need to develop advanced prediction models which integrate dynamic patterns to learn a patients physiological condition. In this study, a sequential contrast patterns-based classification framework is presented for detecting critical patient events, like hypotension and septic shock. Initially, a set of sequential patterns are obtained by using a contrast mining algorithm. Later, these patterns undergo post-processing, for conversion to two novel representations-(1) frequency-based feature space and (2) ordered sequences of patterns, which conserve positional information of a pattern in a time series sequence. Each of these representations are automatically used for developing classification models using SVM and HMM methods. Our results on hypotension and septic shock datasets from a large scale ICU database demonstrate better predictive capabilities, when sequential patterns are used as features.

Deriving Public Sector Workforce Insights: A Case Study Using Australian Public Sector Employment Profiles

Effective approaches for measurement of human capital in public sector and government agencies is essential for robust workforce planning against changing economic conditions. To this purpose, adopting innovative hypotheses driven workforce data analysis can help discover hidden patterns and trends about the workforce. These trends are useful for decision making and support the development of policies to reach desired employment outcomes. In this study, the data challenges and approaches to a real life workforce analytics scenario are described. Statistical results from numerous workforce data experiments are combined to derive three hypotheses that are useful to public sector organisations for human resources management and decision making.