Shamsuddin Shahid

Groundwater potential modelling in a soft rock area using a GIS

A Geographical Information System (GIS) integration tool is proposed to demarcate the groundwater potential zone in a soft rock area using seven hydrogeologic themes: lithology, geomorphology, soil, net recharge, drainage density, slope and surface water bodies. Except for net recharge and slope, the other five themes are derived from remote sensing data. IRS-1B LISS-II data was used for a 631 km2 area in Midnapur District, West Bengal, India. While slope was calculated using topographic sheets, net recharge was obtained from annual water table fluctuation data. Each feature of all the thematic maps was evaluated according to its relative importance in the prediction of groundwater potential. The evolved GIS-based model of the study area was found to be in strong agreement with available borehole and pumping test data.

Adaptation to climate change impacts on water demand

Research on climate change impacts and related adaptation to water demand is still very limited. A review summarising the findings related to climate change impacts on water demand is carried out in this article. A water management strategy is also proposed, which would help with adaptation to growing pressure on water resources due to climate change and socio-economic development. The study reveals that climate change will increase global water demand, though this will vary widely with geographic location and climatic conditions. Water demand in agriculture will be affected more heavily than will demands in other sectors. As irrigation comprises the major portion of global consumptive water use, increased water demand in irrigation may cause severe stress on water resources. Studies suggest that water demand management or water supply management alone will not able to adapt to mounting water stress. A combination of both water supply and water demand management strategies is necessary in order to adapt to varying environmental and associated uncertainties. A case study from the Haihe River basin of China is presented, to illustrate the effectiveness of water demand management strategies used alongside water supply management in adapting to environmental changes. It is expected that the study will help guide policy responses, with the goal of mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.

Probable impacts of climate change on public health in Bangladesh.

The recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirmed that there is overwhelming evidence that the global climate will severely affect human health. Climate change might have severe consequences on public health in Bangladesh, especially in light of the poor state of the country’s public health infrastructure. A number of possible direct and indirect impacts of climate change on public health in Bangladesh have been identified in this article. Adaptive measures that should be taken to reduce the negative consequences of climate change on public health have also been discussed.

Gini coefficient to assess equity in domestic water supply in the Yellow River

Yellow River, is designated as “the cradle of Chinese civilization” and played a key role not only in the country’s economic development but also in the historic and cultural identity of the Chinese people. With the rapid economic development and population growth, water demand for industry and households has increased significantly in the Yellow River basin; this has caused an increasing gap between water supply and demand. Competing water demands triggered conflicts between disparate water users on different scales such as the rich and the poor, or between different sectors and regions, such as domestic and agriculture, agriculture and industry, upstream and downstream, rural and urban areas, etc. Ensuring equity in water supply for conflicting water users is one of the major challenges that facing water managers and in particular water management in the Yellow River basin. In this paper, a method has been developed to calculate the Gini coefficient of water use as an indicator to measure the equality in domestic water supply. A dual domestic water use structure model is employed for this purpose. The developed method is subsequently applied to assess the equality in domestic water supply in the Yellow River. Data of population growth, domestic water use and economic development over the time period 1999-2006 are used to calculate the Gini coefficient of water use over the same length of period. The result shows a decreasing trend in Gini coefficient of domestic water use in the Yellow River basin after 2001 which means domestic water use is becoming more and more equitable in the basin. The study justifies that the Gini coefficient of water use can be used and recommended as a useful tool for the water management especially in the context of global change.

Vulnerability of the power sector of Bangladesh to climate change and extreme weather events

Rise in temperature and annual precipitation, changes in seasonal rainfall patterns, more frequent and severe extreme weather events, and increased salinity in river water have been observed in Bangladesh in the recent years. Rising temperature will elevate total power consumption and peak power demand especially during the pre-monsoon hot summer season, reduce power plant efficiency and transformer lifetime, and increase the transmission loss. More frequent and severe extreme weather events may cause more disruption in power generation and distribution, and more damage of power infrastructure. Lower river flow in dry season may cause water scarcity in power plants and hamper the production. Increased salinity in river water due to sea level rise may lead to corrosion and leakages in power plants located in the coastal region of Bangladesh. A diversified, decentralized, and climate resilient power system can reduce negative impacts of climate change on power sector of Bangladesh. Adaptation and mitigation strategies must be incorporated in the planning and development of new power systems and the reformation of existing power systems of Bangladesh.

GIS integration of remote sensing and topographic data using fuzzy logic for ground water assessment in Midnapur District, India

Abstract A GIS based approach is proposed for the integration of three thematic maps viz. geomorphology, drainage density and slope using fuzzy logic for the assessment of ground water resource potential of a soft rock terrain of Midnapur District, West Bengal, India. The geomorphology and drainage density maps of the area are prepared from IRS‐1B LISS‐II data, and the slope map is obtained from the contours depicted on the topographic map of Survey of India. Each feature of all the thematic maps is assigned with individual fuzzy set values within a range between 0 to 1 according to their relative importance in the prediction of ground water occurrence. The maps are then integrated through fuzzy operation to model the ground water potential zone of the study area. The evolved model while verified with surface geophysical results is found to be in good agreement.

Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971–2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Sen’s slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

Spatial interpolation of climatic variables in a predominantly arid region with complex topography

The benefits of accurately interpolating spatial distribution patterns of precipitation and temperature are well recognized. However, precipitation and temperature patterns are difficult to understand in a region that has complex topography and poor meteorological information. In this study, geostatistical and deterministic interpolation methods are used to understand the best modeling approach for mapping precipitation and temperature in a data-scarce arid region of Pakistan, where elevation and climate vary widely within a short distance. Long-term climate data collected from 15 metrological stations distributed over the Balochistan province of Pakistan are used for this purpose. The performances of various deterministic and geostatistical methods are assessed by using root mean squared errors in interpolation. The results show a difference in accuracy among interpolation methods. Incorporation of elevation significantly improves the accuracy of the interpolation of climate variables. The study concluded that the most preferable models for reliable mapping of precipitation and temperature for such region are disjunctive and universal cokriging.

Assessment of groundwater potential zones in an arid region based on catastrophe theory

Evaluation of groundwater potential is a multi-criteria and multi-level comprehensive assessment system that needs judgment of decision makers in making decision. To avoid subjectivity or the preference of decision makers in the assessment, catastrophe theory based evaluation method is proposed in this study which calculates the importance of one criterion over other by its inner mechanism and thus, avoid subjectivity. The proposed method is applied for the assessment of groundwater potential zones in the arid region of lower Balochistan province of Pakistan. The groundwater is considered as a system with five sub-systems namely, geology, soil, drainage density, slope and rainfall. Seventeen sub-system indicators of groundwater potential are selected for modeling groundwater potential zone. The catastrophe theory is applied to derive the relative weights of indicators in predicting groundwater potential. Thematic maps of sub-systems are integrated within a geographical information system and the groundwater potential zones of the integrated layer are calculated by using the weights of indicators. The results are verified by existing number of tube wells operating in the study area. It has been found that the number of tube wells is more in the area where the groundwater potential is high. The study reveals that catastrophe theory is suitable for assessing groundwater potential.

Historic water consumptions and future management strategies for Haihe River basin of Northern China

With the growth of population and economy, water demand has increased significantly in all the over world. However, the water consumptions in Haihe River basin located in the Northern part of China has decreased in recent years. Haihe River basin, covers the provinces of Beijing and Tianjin and parts of other six provinces of China is considered as the center of politics, economics, and cultural of China. Therefore, decreasing water demand in Haihe River basin has attracted the attention of hydrologists and decision makers. A study has been carried out in this paper by using information entropy theory to understand the possible causes of changing water consumptions in Haihe River basin. Results show that entropy value of water consumption system of Haihe River basin has increased from 0.72 in 1980 to 0.91 in 2008. The balance degree of water consumptions has also increased from 0.68 in 1980 to 0.89 in 2008. The results indicate that the water consumption structure of the basin has become more stable with time. The dominance of agricultural water consumption has weakened, the industrial consumption has stabled, and the domestic and ecological water consumptions have increased. The study reveals that land conversion from agrarian to industrial and higher water efficiency in industrial production have reduced the total water consumption in the basin. Water management approaches base on total quantity control and quota management have been proposed in this study for further reduction of water demand in the basin.