Shaoyang Li

Revisiting viscoelastic effects on interseismic deformation and locking degree: A case study of the Peru‐North Chile subduction zone

Viscoelastic effects potentially play an important role during all phases of the earthquake cycle in subduction zones. However, most current models neglect such effects in the interseismic deformation pattern. Here we use finite element method (FEM) models to investigate the control of viscoelasticity on interseismic deformation and to highlight the pitfalls of interpreting the data with purely elastic models for both the forward and inverse problems. Our results confirm that elastic models are prone to overestimating the interseismic locking depth, a crucial parameter for estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude. The application of the viscoelastic model improves the fit to the interseismic deformation, especially in the inland area. Additionally, we construct 3-D FEM models constrained by geophysical and GPS data and apply our methodology to the Peru-North Chile subduction zone. Our results indicate that viscoelastic effects contribute significantly to the observed GPS data. The signals interpreted as back-arc shortening in the elastic model can be alternatively explained by viscoelastic deformation, which, in turn, dramatically refines the interseismic locking pattern in both dip and strike directions. Our viscoelastic locking map exhibits excellent correlation with the slip distributions of previous earthquakes, especially the recent 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake. The incorrect elastic assumptions affect the analysis of interseismic deformation with respect to slip deficit calculations. Our results thus suggest that it is necessary to thoroughly reevaluate existing locking models that are based on purely elastic models, some of which attribute viscoelastic deformation to different sources such as microplate sliver motions.

The super‐interseismic phase of the megathrust earthquake cycle in Chile

Along a subduction zone, great megathrust earthquakes recur either after long seismic gaps lasting several decades to centuries or over much shorter periods lasting hours to a few years when cascading successions of earthquakes rupture nearby segments of the fault. We analyze a decade of continuous Global Positioning System observations along the South American continent to estimate changes in deformation rates between the 2010 Maule (M8.8) and 2015 Illapel (M8.3) Chilean earthquakes. We find that surface velocities increased after the 2010 earthquake, in response to continental-scale viscoelastic mantle relaxation and to regional-scale increased degree of interplate locking. We propose that increased locking occurs transiently during a super-interseismic phase in segments adjacent to a megathrust rupture, responding to bending of both plates caused by coseismic slip and subsequent afterslip. Enhanced strain rates during a super-interseismic phase may therefore bring a megathrust segment closer to failure and possibly triggered the 2015 event.

Separating rapid relocking, afterslip, and viscoelastic relaxation: An application of the postseismic straightening method to the Maule 2010 cGPS

The postseismic deformation captured with continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) monitoring following many recent mega-thrust events has been shown to be a signal composed of two dominant processes: afterslip on the plate interface and viscoelastic relaxation of the continental and oceanic mantles in response to the coseismic stress perturbation. Following the south-central Chile 2010 Maule Mw 8.8 earthquake, the time series from the regional cGPS network show a distinct curvature in the pathway of the horizontal motion that is not easily fit by a stationary decaying pattern of afterslip in combination with viscoelastic relaxation. Here we show that with realistic assumptions about the long-term decay of the afterslip signal, the postseismic signal can be decomposed into three first-order contributing processes: plate interface re-locking, plate interface afterslip, and mantle viscoelastic relaxation. From our analyses we conclude that the plate interface recovers its interseismic locking state rapidly (model space ranges between an instant recovery and a period of 1 year); a finding that supports laboratory experimental evidence as well as some recent studies of aftershocks and postseismic surface deformation. Furthermore, re-locking is the main cause of the curvature in the cGPS signal, and this study presents a plausible range of geodetic re-locking rates following a megathrust earthquake.

Splay fault triggering by great subduction earthquakes inferred from finite element models

We have investigated the influence that megathrust earthquake slip has on the activation of splay faults using a 2-D finite element method (FEM), taking into account the effects of gravity and variations in the frictional strength properties of splay faults. We simulated both landward-dipping and seaward-dipping splay fault geometries, and imposed depth-variable slip distributions of subduction events. Our results indicate that the two types of splay fault exhibit a similar behavior, with variations in frictional properties along the faults affecting only the seismic magnitude. The triggering process is controlled by a critical depth. Megathrust slip concentrated at depths shallower than the critical depth will favor normal displacement, while megathrust slip concentrated at depths deeper than the critical depth is likely to result in reverse motion. Our results thus provide a useful tool for predicting the activation of secondary faults and may have direct implications for tsunami hazard research.

Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake

Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (Mw = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to ~70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of strain accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. Here, the authors reconstruct interseismic strain accumulation since the 1960 Chile earthquake, finding a transient evolution at decadal scale with implications for estimating the probability of future events.

Postseismic uplift of the Andes following the 2010 Maule earthquake: Implications for mantle rheology: Postseismic Deformation of Maule Earthquake

Postseismic surface deformation associated with great subduction earthquakes is controlled by asthenosphere rheology, frictional properties of the fault, and structural complexity. Here by modeling GPS displacements in the 6 years following the 2010Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, we investigate the impact of heterogeneous viscosity distribution in the South American subcontinental asthenosphere on the 3-D postseismic deformation pattern. The observed postseismic deformation is characterized by flexure of the South America plate with peak uplift in the Andean mountain range and subsidence in the hinterland. We find that, at the time scale of observation, over 2 orders of magnitude gradual increase in asthenosphere viscosity from the arc area toward the cratonic hinterland is needed to jointly explain horizontal and vertical displacements. Our findings present an efficient method to estimate spatial variations of viscosity, which clearly improves the fitting to the vertical signal of deformation. Lateral changes in asthenosphere viscosity can be correlated with the thermomechanical transition from weak subvolcanic arc mantle to strong subcratonic mantle, thus suggesting a stationary heterogeneous viscosity structure. However, we cannot rule out a transient viscosity structure (e.g., power law rheology) with the short time span of observation.