Shaun Ramroop

Indexing household resilience to food insecurity shocks : the case of South Sudan

ABSTRACT Based on a number of household characteristics, livelihood capitals and endowments, we generate a household food security resilience index. The rationale of the paper is premised on the notion that resilience to food insecurity is a property of wealth and thus its proxy. The study explored the statistical robustness and efficiency of the technique in providing evidence for triggering alerts and action for curbing risk of food insecurity uncertainties. It is established that Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is helpful in constructing a summary measure (referred to here as Household Resilience Index or HRI in short) that is an efficient proxy for wealth index, which is based on consumption data, and that predicts per capita consumption very well. The paper elaborates six distinctive characteristics of the HRI that support its adoption and use. The dataset used in the study is from the 2009 South Sudan National Household Baseline Survey.

Establishing a robust technique for monitoring and early warning of food insecurity in post-conflict South Sudan using Ordinal Logistic Regression

Abstract The lack of a “gold standard” to determine and predict household food insecurity is well documented. While a considerable volume of research continues to explore universally applicable measurement approaches, robust statistical techniques have not been applied in food security monitoring and early warning systems, especially in countries where food insecurity is chronic. This study explored the application of various Ordinal Logistic Regression techniques in the analysis of national data from South Sudan. Five Link Functions of the Ordinal Regression model were tested. Of these techniques, the Probit Model was found to be the most efficient for predicting food security using ordered categorical outcomes (Food Consumption Scores). The study presents the first rigorous analysis of national food security levels in post conflict South Sudan and shows the power of the model in identifying significant predictors of food insecurity, surveillance, monitoring and early warning.

Factors influencing the long-term competitiveness of commercial milk producers: evidence from panel data in East Griqualand, South Africa

Abstract This study investigates factors influencing the long-term competitiveness of 11 commercial milk producers from East Griqualand (EG), South Africa using unbalanced panel data for the period 1990 to 2006. Results of a ridge regression analysis show that dairy herd size, the level of farm debt, annual production per cow, technology and policy changes over time, and the ratio of trading income to total milk income influence the long-term competitiveness of these milk producers. To enhance their competitiveness in a deregulated dairy market, relatively small and profitable EG milk producers should consider increasing their herd sizes, as the importance of herd size in explaining competitiveness suggests that size economies exist. All EG milk producers should consider utilising more pasture- and forage-based production systems to lower feed costs and select dairy cattle of superior genetic merit to improve milk yields on pasture.

Determinants of Poverty of Households in Rwanda: An Application of Quantile Regression

Abstract Eradication of poverty is the main objective of most societies and policy makers, but developing a perfect or accurate poverty assessment tool to target poor households, in most cases, is a challenge for applied policy research. In this paper, the principal component analysis was first used to create an asset index for each household and thereafter the quantile regression model was used to identify the determinants of poverty of households in Rwanda. The characteristics of households as well as household heads were considered. Data from the Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey (2010) was used as application. The findings showed that education level, gender and age of household head, province, size of the household and place of residence were significant predictors of poverty of households in Rwanda. The quantile regression model allowed the researchers to study the impact of predictors on different desired quantiles of the asset index, and thus to get a complete picture of the relationship between the asset index and predictor variables.

The development of a scoring tool for the measurement of performance in managing hypotension and intra-operative cardiac arrest during spinal anaesthesia for caesarean section

Background: At level one hospitals in South Africa a high annual number of maternal deaths occur due to the unrecognised/untreated complications of spinal anaesthesia. The authors developed a clinical scenario and scoring system to measure intern performance in managing hypotension and cardiac arrest during spinal anaesthesia for caesarean section on a human patient simulator. This system was then subjected to tests of validity and reliability. Methods: The simulator-based clinical scenario was developed by two specialist anaesthesiologists. A modified Delphi technique was used to achieve consensus among 10 anaesthetic specialists regarding a standardised scoring system. A total of 20 medical officers with a Diploma in Anaesthesiology and 20 interns completed the scenario and were scored by two senior anaesthesiologists. Results: Medical officers scored an average of 252 and 246 points, whereas interns scored an average of 216 and 215 points (p = 0.005 and p = 0.013, respectively). The scoring instrument demonstrated high inter-assessor reliability with an intra-class correlation coefficient of 0.983. Conclusions: The scoring tool was shown to be valid and reliable. It offers a standardised assessment process and may be used to refine institutional intern training programmes, with a view to improving anaesthesia skills in community service medical officers.

Analysis of demographic and health survey to measure poverty of household in Rwanda

The use of the asset index in poverty targeting is a modern technique. We used the principal component analysis (PCA) technique in order to create the asset index. Then the asset index was used to assess the socio-economic status (SES) of households. The reliability of the index was tested firstly by ascertaining whether the index was internally coherent, secondly the robustness was tested using the sub-indices such as housing infrastructure and ownership. The methodology is applied and demonstrated using the household survey data in Rwanda. The Rwanda data analysis showed that the age of household head, education level of the household head, gender of the household head, place of residence, the province of household head and size of the household (number of household members) were the significant predictors of poverty of the household in Rwanda

Relationship between the postgraduate research students' perception of their role, research climate and service quality

This paper reports the results of the empirical evaluation of a theoretical model developed through an in-depth review of relevant literature which culminated in postulating that if postgraduate (PG) students are clear about their role as co-creators of the PG service and, if the research climate (OC) is supportive of research, then this will impact on their perception of PG service quality delivered by the PG research supervisor (EQUAL). The implications of the model for management of quality in postgraduate education through managing the PG service encounter, becomes apparent.

The Analysis of Socio-Economic and Demographic Factors Associated with Contraceptive Use Among Married Women of Reproductive Age in Rwanda

RESEARCH ARTICLE The Analysis of Socio-Economic and Demographic Factors Associated with Contraceptive Use Among Married Women of Reproductive Age in Rwanda Faustin Habyarimana and Shaun Ramroop School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of Kwazulu, Natal, Pietermaritzburg, Private Bag X01, Scottsville, 3209, South Africa College of Education, University of Rwanda, PO Box 5039, Kigali, Rwanda

Structured Spatial Modeling and Mapping of Domestic Violence Against Women of Reproductive Age in Rwanda

The main objective of this study was to assess the risk factors and spatial correlates of domestic violence against women of reproductive age in Rwanda. A structured spatial approach was used to account for the nonlinear nature of some covariates and the spatial variability on domestic violence. The nonlinear effect was modeled through second-order random walk, and the structured spatial effect was modeled through Gaussian Markov Random Fields specified as an intrinsic conditional autoregressive model. The data from the Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey 2014/2015 were used as an application. The findings of this study revealed that the risk factors of domestic violence against women are the wealth quintile of the household, the size of the household, the husband or partners age, the husband or partners level of education, ownership of the house, polygamy, the alcohol consumption status of the husband or partner, the womans perception of wife-beating attitude, and the use of contraceptive methods. The study also highlighted the significant spatial variation of domestic violence against women at district level.

Determinants of Domestic Violence in Women of Reproductive Age in Rwanda

Domestic violence is a global public health problem. It is prevalent in both the developed world and developing countries. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that are associated with domestic violence against women of reproductive age in Rwanda. The data from the 2014/2015 Rwanda demographic and health survey were used. Generalized linear mixed model was used to account for random effects, overdispersion of residual and heterogeneity. The findings of this study revealed that wealth quintiles, education level of the husband or partner, polygamy, alcohol status of husband or partner, size of the family, number of sexual partners including the husband in the last 12 months, the province the victim lived in, the ownership of an asset in the form of a house or land and the societal attitude towards wife-beating, were the determinants of domestic violence in women of reproductive age. The findings of the risk factors in the current study can help the policy makers, public health workers and institutions in charge of gender monitoring in Rwanda to come up with effective strategies to reduce the domestic violence levels directed against women.