Shaun Scholes

The epidemiology of fractures in England

Introduction: Fractures are a considerable public health burden in the United Kingdom but information on their epidemiology is limited. Objective: This study aims to estimate the true annual incidence and lifetime prevalence of fractures in England, within both the general population and specific groups, using a self-report methodology. Methods: A self-report survey of a nationally representative general population sample of 45 293 individuals in England, plus a special boost sample of 10 111 drawn from the ethnic minority population. Results: The calculated fracture incidence is 3.6 fractures per 100 people per year. Lifetime fracture prevalence exceeds 50% in middle-aged men, and 40% in women over the age of 75 years. Fractures occur with reduced frequency in the non-white population: this effect is seen across most black and minority ethnic groups. Conclusions: This study suggests that fractures in England may be more common than previously estimated, with an overall annual fracture incidence of 3.6%. Age-standardised lifetime fracture prevalence is estimated to be 38.2%. Fractures are more commonplace in the white population.

Social variations in access to hospital care for patients with colorectal, breast, and lung cancer between 1999 and 2006: retrospective analysis of hospital episode statistics

Objectives To determine the extent to which type of hospital admission (emergency compared with elective) and surgical procedure varied by socioeconomic circumstances, age, sex, and year of admission for colorectal, breast, and lung cancer. Design Repeated cross sectional study with data from individual patients, 1 April 1999 to 31 March 2006. Setting Hospital episode statistics (HES) dataset. Participants 564 821 patients aged 50 and over admitted with a diagnosis of colorectal, breast, or lung cancer. Main outcome measures Proportion of patients admitted as emergencies, and the proportion receiving the recommended surgical treatment. Results Patients from deprived areas, older people, and women were more likely to be admitted as emergencies. For example, the adjusted odds ratio for patients with breast cancer in the least compared with most deprived fifth of deprivation was 0.63 (95% confidence interval 0.60 to 0.66) and the adjusted odds ratio for patients with lung cancer aged 80-89 compared with those aged 50-59 was 3.13 (2.93 to 3.34). There were some improvements in disparities between age groups but not for patients living in deprived areas over time. Patients from deprived areas were less likely to receive preferred procedures for rectal, breast, and lung cancer. These findings did not improve with time. For example, 67.4% (3529/5237) of patients in the most deprived fifth of deprivation had anterior resection for rectal cancer compared with 75.5% (4497/5959) of patients in the least deprived fifth (1.34, 1.22 to 1.47). Over half (54.0%, 11 256/20 849) of patients in the most deprived fifth of deprivation had breast conserving surgery compared with 63.7% (18 445/28 960) of patients in the least deprived fifth (1.21, 1.16 to 1.26). Men were less likely than women to undergo anterior resection and lung cancer resection and older people were less likely to receive breast conserving surgery and lung cancer resection. For example, the adjusted odds ratio for lung cancer patients aged 80-89 compared with those aged 50-59 was 0.52 (0.46 to 0.59). Conclusions Despite the implementation of the NHS Cancer Plan, social factors still strongly influence access to and the provision of care.

Persistent socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors in England over 1994-2008: A time-trend analysis of repeated cross-sectional data

BackgroundOur aims were to determine the pace of change in cardiovascular risk factors by age, gender and socioeconomic groups from 1994 to 2008, and quantify the magnitude, direction and change in absolute and relative inequalities.MethodsTime trend analysis was used to measure change in absolute and relative inequalities in risk factors by gender and age (16-54, ≥ 55 years), using repeated cross-sectional data from the Health Survey for England 1994-2008. Seven risk factors were examined: smoking, obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, raised cholesterol, consumption of five or more daily portions of fruit and vegetables, and physical activity. Socioeconomic group was measured using the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007.ResultsBetween 1994 and 2008, the prevalence of smoking, high blood pressure and raised cholesterol decreased in most deprivation quintiles. However, obesity and diabetes increased. Increasing absolute inequalities were found in obesity in older men and women (p = 0.044 and p = 0.027 respectively), diabetes in young men and older women (p = 0.036 and p = 0.019 respectively), and physical activity in older women (p = 0.025). Relative inequality increased in high blood pressure in young women (p = 0.005). The prevalence of raised cholesterol showed widening absolute and relative inverse gradients from 1998 onwards in older men (p = 0.004 and p ≤ 0.001 respectively) and women (p ≤ 0.001 and p ≤ 0.001).ConclusionsFavourable trends in smoking, blood pressure and cholesterol are consistent with falling coronary heart disease death rates. However, adverse trends in obesity and diabetes are likely to counteract some of these gains. Furthermore, little progress over the last 15 years has been made towards reducing inequalities. Implementation of known effective population based approaches in combination with interventions targeted at individuals/subgroups with poorer cardiovascular risk profiles are therefore recommended to reduce social inequalities.

Age- and Sex-Specific Criterion Validity of the Health Survey for England Physical Activity and Sedentary Behavior Assessment Questionnaire as Compared With Accelerometry

The criterion validity of the 2008 Physical Activity and Sedentary Behavior Assessment Questionnaire (PASBAQ) was examined in a nationally representative sample of 2,175 persons aged ≥16 years in England using accelerometry. Using accelerometer minutes/day greater than or equal to 200 counts as a criterion, Spearmans correlation coefficient (ρ) for PASBAQ-assessed total activity was 0.30 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.25, 0.35) in women and 0.20 (95% CI: 0.15, 0.26) in men. Correlations between accelerometer counts/minute of wear time and questionnaire-assessed relative energy expenditure (metabolic equivalent-minutes/day) were higher in women (ρ = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.36, 0.46) than in men (ρ = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.26, 0.38). Similar correlations were observed for minutes/day spent in vigorous activity (women: ρ = 0.39, 95% CI: 0.33, 0.46; men: ρ = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.26, 0.36) and moderate-to-vigorous activity (women: ρ = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.36, 0.48; men: ρ = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.32, 0.45). Correlations for time spent being sedentary (<100 counts/minute) were 0.30 (95% CI: 0.24, 0.35) and 0.25 (95% CI: 0.19, 0.30) in women and men, respectively. Sedentary behavior correlations showed no sex difference. The validity of sedentary behavior and total physical activity was higher in older age groups, but validity was higher in younger persons for vigorous-intensity activity. The PASBAQ is a useful and valid instrument for ranking individuals according to levels of physical activity and sedentary behavior.

Unequal Trends in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality by Socioeconomic Circumstances, England 1982-2006: An Analytical Study

Background Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a major public health burden, causing 80,000 deaths annually in England and Wales, with major inequalities. However, there are no recent analyses of age-specific socioeconomic trends in mortality. We analysed annual trends in inequalities in age-specific CHD mortality rates in small areas in England, grouped into deprivation quintiles. Methods We calculated CHD mortality rates for 10-year age groups (from 35 to ≥85 years) using three year moving averages between 1982 and 2006. We used Joinpoint regression to identify significant turning points in age- sex- and deprivation-specific time trends. We also analysed trends in absolute and relative inequalities in age-standardised rates between the least and most deprived areas. Results Between 1982 and 2006, CHD mortality fell by 62.2% in men and 59.7% in women. Falls were largest for the most deprived areas with the highest initial level of CHD mortality. However, a social gradient in the pace of fall was apparent, being steepest in the least deprived quintile. Thus, while absolute inequalities narrowed over the period, relative inequalities increased. From 2000, declines in mortality rates slowed or levelled off in the youngest groups, notably in women aged 45–54 in the least deprived groups. In contrast, from age 55 years and older, rates of fall in CHD mortality accelerated in the 2000s, likewise falling fastest in the least deprived quintile. Conclusions Age-standardised CHD mortality rates have declined substantially in England, with the steepest falls in the most affluent quintiles. However, this concealed contrasting patterns in underlying age-specific rates. From 2000, mortality rates levelled off in the youngest groups but accelerated in middle aged and older groups. Mortality analyses by small areas could provide potentially valuable insights into possible drivers of inequalities, and thus inform future strategies to reduce CHD mortality across all social groups.

Recent UK trends in the unequal burden of coronary heart disease

Introduction The burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the UK is substantial. However, recent trends and associated socioeconomic inequalities are not well studied. We aim to identify and analyse these trends stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic quintiles. Methods We quantified the CHD burden and analysed trends from 1999 to 2007 in all adults aged over 25 years resident in England. Data sources included deaths (from ONS), health surveys, and hospital admissions (from Hospital Episode Statistics), all using ICD9 and ICD10 coding. Socioeconomic inequalities were calculated in both absolute and relative terms. Results In 2007, the CHD burden comprised approximately 205 000 hospital admissions (acute and elective), including approximately 110 000 admissions with acute coronary syndrome. There were approximately 1.5 million CHD patients with chronic disease living in the community. Approximately 67 500 of these were admitted during 2007 for revascularisation. There were approximately 173 000 CHD patients living with heart failure, of whom some 14% required hospital admission during 2007. Between 1999 and 2007, age-specific hospital admission rates generally decreased by 20%–35%. Community prevalence decreased by 10%–20%. Strong socioeconomic gradients were apparent in all patient groups, persisting or worsening between 1999 and 2007. Conclusions The burden of CHD is immense, costly and unequal. Hospital admissions attract more attention than the far more numerous patients living with chronic disease in the community. Population-based rates for hospital admissions and CHD prevalence have been declining by 3%–4% per annum. However, marked socioeconomic gradients have persisted or worsened—there is no room for complacency.

Explaining trends in Scottish coronary heart disease mortality between 2000 and 2010 using IMPACTSEC model: retrospective analysis using routine data

Objective To quantify the contributions of prevention and treatment to the trends in mortality due to coronary heart disease in Scotland. Design Retrospective analysis using IMPACTSEC, a previously validated policy model, to apportion the recent decline in coronary heart disease mortality to changes in major cardiovascular risk factors and to increases in more than 40 treatments in nine non-overlapping groups of patients. Setting Scotland. Participants All adults aged 25 years or over, stratified by sex, age group, and fifths of Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Main outcome measure Deaths prevented or postponed. Results 5770 fewer deaths from coronary heart disease occurred in 2010 than would be expected if the 2000 mortality rates had persisted (8042 rather than 13 813). This reflected a 43% fall in coronary heart disease mortality rates (from 262 to 148 deaths per 100 000). Improved treatments accounted for approximately 43% (95% confidence interval 33% to 61%) of the fall in mortality, and this benefit was evenly distributed across deprivation fifths. Notable treatment contributions came from primary prevention for hypercholesterolaemia (13%), secondary prevention drugs (11%), and chronic angina treatments (7%). Risk factor improvements accounted for approximately 39% (28% to 49%) of the fall in mortality (44% in the most deprived fifth compared with only 36% in the most affluent fifth). Reductions in systolic blood pressure contributed more than one third (37%) of the decline in mortality, with no socioeconomic patterning. Smaller contributions came from falls in total cholesterol (9%), smoking (4%), and inactivity (2%). However, increases in obesity and diabetes offset some of these benefits, potentially increasing mortality by 4% and 8% respectively. Diabetes showed strong socioeconomic patterning (12% increase in the most deprived fifth compared with 5% for the most affluent fifth). Conclusions Increases in medical treatments accounted for almost half of the large recent decline in mortality due to coronary heart disease in Scotland. Furthermore, the Scottish National Health Service seems to have delivered these benefits equitably. However, the substantial contributions from population falls in blood pressure and other risk factors were diminished by adverse trends in obesity and diabetes. Additional population-wide interventions are urgently needed to reduce coronary heart disease mortality and inequalities in future decades.

Community Care in England Reducing Socioeconomic Inequalities in Heart Failure

Background— Socioeconomic deprivation is associated with increased heart failure (HF) incidence, hospitalization rates, and mortality. However, whether the delivery of survival-enhancing medical therapy is equitable remains uncertain. We examined secular trends in the uptake of key medical therapies (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers, &bgr;-blockers, spironolactone) stratified by socioeconomic circumstances in patients with HF. Secondary analyses examined trends in HF incidence, prevalence, and survival. Methods and Results— This study was a cross-sectional observational analysis of nationally representative primary care data from England. Treatments for patients with HF in 1999 and 2007 (n=13 330) were extracted from the General Practice Research Database. Socioeconomic circumstances were defined with the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007, a weighted composite of 7 area-level deprivation domains. Treatment uptake estimates were age standardized. The incidence and prevalence of HF decreased year to year. Although clear socioeconomic gradients in both the incidence and prevalence of HF were apparent, the absolute difference between most and least deprived reduced over time. Uptake of therapies improved over time in both men and women. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker uptake increased from 46% to 64%, &bgr;-blocker uptake from 12% to 41%, and spironolactone uptake from 3% to 20%. Modest age and sex inequalities were apparent. However, no consistent socioeconomic gradients were observed in either treatment or case fatality. Conclusions— Socioeconomic gradients in the incidence and prevalence of HF are reducing. Treatment is generally equitable and independent of socioeconomic circumstances. Most important, no significant inequality in outcomes was apparent. Future strategies should continue to address inequalities in the underlying causes of HF and to increase overall treatment levels further.Background— Socioeconomic deprivation is associated with increased heart failure (HF) incidence, hospitalization rates, and mortality. However, whether the delivery of survival-enhancing medical therapy is equitable remains uncertain. We examined secular trends in the uptake of key medical therapies (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers, β-blockers, spironolactone) stratified by socioeconomic circumstances in patients with HF. Secondary analyses examined trends in HF incidence, prevalence, and survival. Methods and Results— This study was a cross-sectional observational analysis of nationally representative primary care data from England. Treatments for patients with HF in 1999 and 2007 (n=13 330) were extracted from the General Practice Research Database. Socioeconomic circumstances were defined with the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007, a weighted composite of 7 area-level deprivation domains. Treatment uptake estimates were age standardized. The incidence and prevalence of HF decreased year to year. Although clear socioeconomic gradients in both the incidence and prevalence of HF were apparent, the absolute difference between most and least deprived reduced over time. Uptake of therapies improved over time in both men and women. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker uptake increased from 46% to 64%, β-blocker uptake from 12% to 41%, and spironolactone uptake from 3% to 20%. Modest age and sex inequalities were apparent. However, no consistent socioeconomic gradients were observed in either treatment or case fatality. Conclusions— Socioeconomic gradients in the incidence and prevalence of HF are reducing. Treatment is generally equitable and independent of socioeconomic circumstances. Most important, no significant inequality in outcomes was apparent. Future strategies should continue to address inequalities in the underlying causes of HF and to increase overall treatment levels further. # Clinical Perspective {#article-title-51}

The UK National Health Service Delivering Equitable Treatment Across the Spectrum of Coronary Disease

Background—Social gradients in cardiovascular mortality across the United Kingdom may reflect differences in incidence, disease severity, or treatment. It is unknown whether a universal healthcare system delivers equitable lifesaving medical therapy for coronary heart disease. We therefore examined secular trends in the use of key medical therapies stratified by socioeconomic circumstances across a broad spectrum of coronary disease presentations, including acute coronary syndromes, secondary prevention, and clinical angina. Methods and Results—This was a cross-sectional observational analysis of nationally representative primary and secondary care data from the United Kingdom. Data on treatments for all myocardial infarction patients in 2003 and 2007 were derived from the Myocardial Ischemia National Audit Project (n=51 755). Data on treatments for patients with chronic angina (n=33 211) or requiring secondary prevention (n=32 976) in 1999 and 2007 were extracted from the General Practice Research Database. Socioeconomic circumstances were defined using a weighted composite of 7 area-level deprivation domains. Treatment estimates were age-standardized. Use of all therapies increased in all patient groups, both men and women. Improvements were most marked in primary care, where use of &bgr;-blockers, statins, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers for secondary prevention and treatment of angina doubled, from ≈30% to >60%. Small age gradients persisted for some therapies. No consistent socioeconomic gradients or sex differences were observed for myocardial infarction and postrevascularization (hard diagnoses). However, some sex inequality was apparent in the treatment of younger women with angina. Conclusions—Cardiovascular treatment is generally equitable and independent of socioeconomic circumstances. Future strategies should aim to further increase overall treatment levels and to eradicate remaining age and sex inequalities.

Could more than three million older people in England be at risk of alcohol-related harm? A cross-sectional analysis of proposed age-specific drinking limits

OBJECTIVE to determine the impact of recently proposed age-specific alcohol consumption limits on the proportion and number of older people classified at risk of alcohol-related harm. DESIGN nationally representative cross-sectional population data from the Health Survey for England (HSE). PARTICIPANTS adults with valid alcohol consumption data, comprising 14,718 participants from 2003 and 14,939 from 2008. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE the prevalence of alcohol consumption in excess of existing and recently proposed consumption limits, plus associated population estimates. RESULTS the number of individuals aged 65 or over and drinking in excess of daily recommended limits would have increased 2.5-fold to over 3 million in 2008 under age-specific recommendations proposed in a report from the Royal College of Psychiatrists, equating to an at-risk population 809,000 individuals greater than found within the 16-24 age group during the same year. Suggested revisions to existing binge drinking classifications would have defined almost 1,200,000 people aged 65 or over as hazardous consumers of alcohol in 2008-a 3.6-fold increase over existing definitions. CONCLUSION age-specific drinking recommendations proposed in the Royal College of Psychiatrists Report would increase the number of older drinkers classified as hazardous alcohol consumers to a level greater than found among young adults aged 16-24.