Sheila M. Manemann

A Contemporary Appraisal of the Heart Failure Epidemic in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 2000 to 2010

IMPORTANCE Heart failure (HF) is commonly referred to as an epidemic, posing major clinical and public health challenges. Yet, contemporary data on its magnitude and implications are scarce. OBJECTIVE To evaluate recent trends in HF incidence and outcomes overall and by preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) or reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Incidence rates of HF in Olmsted County, Minnesota (population, approximately 144,248), between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2010, were assessed. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Patients identified with incident HF (n = 2762) (mean age, 76.4 years; 43.1% male) were followed up for all-cause and cause-specific hospitalizations (through December 2012) and death (through March 2014). RESULTS The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of HF declined substantially from 315.8 per 100,000 in 2000 to 219.3 per 100,000 in 2010 (annual percentage change, -4.6), equating to a rate reduction of 37.5% (95% CI, -29.6% to -44.4%) over the last decade. The incidence declined for both HF types but was greater (interaction P = .08) for HFrEF (-45.1%; 95% CI, -33.0% to -55.0%) than for HFpEF (-27.9%; 95% CI, -12.9% to -40.3%). Mortality was high (24.4% for age 60 years and 54.4% for age 80 years at 5 years of follow-up), frequently ascribed to noncardiovascular causes (54.3%), and did not decline over time. The risk of cardiovascular death was lower for HFpEF than for HFrEF (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67-0.93), whereas the risk of noncardiovascular death was similar (1.07; 95% CI, 0.89-1.29). Hospitalizations were common (mean, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.25-1.44 per person-year), particularly among men, and did not differ between HFpEF and HFrEF. Most hospitalizations (63.0%) were due to noncardiovascular causes. Hospitalization rates for cardiovascular causes did not change over time, whereas those for noncardiovascular causes increased. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Over the last decade, the incidence of HF declined substantially, particularly for HFrEF, contrasting with no apparent change in mortality. Noncardiovascular conditions have an increasing role in hospitalizations and remain the most frequent cause of death. These results underscore the need to augment disease-centric management approaches with holistic strategies to reduce the population burden of HF.

Multimorbidity in Heart Failure: A Community Perspective

BACKGROUND Comorbidities are a major concern in heart failure, leading to adverse outcomes, increased health care utilization, and excess mortality. Nevertheless, the epidemiology of comorbid conditions and differences in their occurrence by type of heart failure and sex are not well documented. METHODS The prevalence of 16 chronic conditions defined by the US Department of Health and Human Services was obtained among 1382 patients from Olmsted County, Minn. diagnosed with first-ever heart failure between 2000 and 2010. Heat maps displayed the pairwise prevalences of the comorbidities and the observed-to-expected ratios for occurrence of morbidity pairs by type of heart failure (preserved or reduced ejection fraction) and sex. RESULTS Most heart failure patients had 2 or more additional chronic conditions (86%); the most prevalent were hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and arrhythmias. The co-occurrence of other cardiovascular diseases was common, with higher prevalences of co-occurring cardiovascular diseases in men compared with women. Patients with preserved ejection fraction had one additional condition compared with those with reduced ejection fraction (mean 4.5 vs 3.7). The patterns of co-occurring conditions were similar between preserved and reduced ejection fraction; however, differences in the ratios of observed-to-expected co-occurrence were apparent by type of heart failure and sex. In addition, some psychological and neurological conditions co-occurred more frequently than expected. CONCLUSION Multimorbidity is common in heart failure, and differences in co-occurrence of conditions exist by type of heart failure and sex, highlighting the need for a better understanding of the clinical consequences of multiple chronic conditions in heart failure patients.

Decade-long trends in atrial fibrillation incidence and survival: a community study.

BACKGROUND Contemporary data on temporal trends in incidence and survival after atrial fibrillation are scarce. METHODS Residents of Olmsted County, Minn., with a first-ever atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter event between 2000 and 2010 were identified. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were standardized to the 2010 US population, and the relative risk of atrial fibrillation in 2010 versus 2000 was calculated using Poisson regression. Standardized mortality ratios of observed versus expected survival were calculated, and time trends in survival were examined using Cox regression. RESULTS We identified 3344 patients with incident atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter events (52% were male, mean age 72.6 years, 95.7% were white). Incidence did not change over time (age- and sex-adjusted rate ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-1.13 for 2010 vs 2000). Within the first 90 days, the risk of all-cause mortality was greatly elevated compared with individuals of a similar age and sex distribution in the general population (standardized mortality ratios 19.4 [95% CI, 17.3-21.7] and 4.2 [95% CI, 3.5-5.0] for the first 30 days and 31 to 90 days after diagnosis, respectively). Survival within the first 90 days did not improve over the study period (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.71-1.32 for 2010 vs 2000); likewise, no difference in mortality between 2010 and 2000 was observed among 90-day survivors (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.85-1.31). CONCLUSIONS In the community, atrial fibrillation incidence and survival have remained constant over the last decade. A dramatic and persistent excess risk of death was observed in the 90 days after atrial fibrillation diagnosis, underscoring the importance of early risk stratification.

Self-Rated Health Predicts Healthcare Utilization in Heart Failure

Background Heart failure (HF) patients experience impaired functional status, diminished quality of life, high utilization of healthcare resources, and poor survival. Yet, the identification of patient‐centered factors that influence prognosis is lacking. Methods and Results We determined the association of 2 measures of self‐rated health with healthcare utilization and skilled nursing facility (SNF) admission in a community cohort of 417 HF patients prospectively enrolled between October 2007 and December 2010 from Olmsted County, MN. Patients completed a 12‐item Short Form Health Survey (SF‐12). Low self‐reported physical functioning was defined as a score ≤25 on the SF‐12 physical component. The first question of the SF‐12 was used as a measure of self‐rated general health. After 2 years, 1033 hospitalizations, 1407 emergency department (ED) visits, and 19,780 outpatient office visits were observed; 87 patients were admitted to a SNF. After adjustment for confounding factors, an increased risk of hospitalizations (1.52 [1.17 to 1.99]) and ED visits (1.48 [1.04 to 2.11]) was observed for those with low versus moderate‐high self‐reported physical functioning. Patients with poor and fair self‐rated general health also experienced an increased risk of hospitalizations (poor: 1.73 [1.29 to 2.32]; fair: 1.46 [1.14 to 1.87]) and ED visits (poor: 1.73 [1.16 to 2.56]; fair: 1.48 [1.13 to 1.93]) compared with good‐excellent self‐rated general health. No association between self‐reported physical functioning or self‐rated general health with outpatient visits and SNF admission was observed. Conclusion In community HF patients, self‐reported measures of physical functioning predict hospitalizations and ED visits, indicating that these patient‐reported measures may be useful in risk stratification and management in HF.

Activities of Daily Living and Outcomes in Heart Failure

Background—Chronic disease can contribute to functional disability, which can degrade quality of life. However, the prevalence of functional disability and its association with outcomes among patients with heart failure requires further study. Methods and Results—Southeastern Minnesota residents with heart failure were enrolled from September 2003 through January 2012 into a cohort study with follow-up through December 2012. Difficulty with 9 activities of daily living (ADLs) was assessed by a questionnaire. Patients were divided into 3 categories of ADL difficulty (no/minimal, moderate, severe). The associations of ADL difficulty with mortality and hospitalization were assessed using Cox and Andersen-Gill models. Among 1128 patients (mean age, 74.7 years; 49.2% female), a majority (59.4%) reported difficulty with one or more ADLs at enrollment, with 272 (24.1%) and 146 (12.9%) experiencing moderate and severe difficulty, respectively. After a mean (SD) follow-up of 3.2 (2.4) years, 614 patients (54.4%) had died. Mortality increased with increasing ADL difficulty; the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for death was 1.49 (1.22–1.82) and 2.26 (1.79–2.86) for those with moderate and severe difficulty, respectively, compared to those with no/minimal difficulty (Ptrend<0.001). Patients with moderate and severe difficulty were at an increased risk for all-cause and noncardiovascular hospitalization. In a second assessment, 17.7% of survivors reported more difficulty with ADLs and patients with persistently severe or worsening difficulty were at an increased risk for death (hazard ratio, 2.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.71–2.58; P<0.001) and hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.31–1.74; P<0.001). Conclusions—Functional disability is common in patients with heart failure, can progress over time, and is associated with adverse prognosis.

Frailty Trajectories in an Elderly Population‐Based Cohort

To identify distinct frailty trajectories (clusters of individuals following a similar progression of frailty over time) in an aging population and to estimate associations between frailty trajectories and emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and all‐cause mortality.

Decade-long trends in atrial fibrillation incidence and survival

BACKGROUND Contemporary data on temporal trends in incidence and survival after atrial fibrillation are scarce. METHODS Residents of Olmsted County, Minn., with a first-ever atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter event between 2000 and 2010 were identified. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were standardized to the 2010 US population, and the relative risk of atrial fibrillation in 2010 versus 2000 was calculated using Poisson regression. Standardized mortality ratios of observed versus expected survival were calculated, and time trends in survival were examined using Cox regression. RESULTS We identified 3344 patients with incident atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter events (52% were male, mean age 72.6 years, 95.7% were white). Incidence did not change over time (age- and sex-adjusted rate ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-1.13 for 2010 vs 2000). Within the first 90 days, the risk of all-cause mortality was greatly elevated compared with individuals of a similar age and sex distribution in the general population (standardized mortality ratios 19.4 [95% CI, 17.3-21.7] and 4.2 [95% CI, 3.5-5.0] for the first 30 days and 31 to 90 days after diagnosis, respectively). Survival within the first 90 days did not improve over the study period (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.71-1.32 for 2010 vs 2000); likewise, no difference in mortality between 2010 and 2000 was observed among 90-day survivors (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.85-1.31). CONCLUSIONS In the community, atrial fibrillation incidence and survival have remained constant over the last decade. A dramatic and persistent excess risk of death was observed in the 90 days after atrial fibrillation diagnosis, underscoring the importance of early risk stratification.

Mortality Associated With Heart Failure After Myocardial Infarction A Contemporary Community Perspective

Background—Contemporary data are lacking on the prognostic importance of heart failure (HF) after myocardial infarction (MI). We evaluated the prognostic impact of HF post MI according to preserved/reduced ejection fraction and the timing of its occurrence. Methods and Results—All Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents (n=2596) with incident MI diagnosed in 1990 to 2010 and no prior HF were followed through March 2013. Cox models were used to examine (1) the hazard ratios for death associated with HF type and timing and (2) secular trends in survival by HF status. During a mean follow-up of 7.6 years, there were 1116 deaths, 634 in the 902 patients who developed HF (70%) and 482 in the 1694 patients who did not develop HF (28%). After adjustment for age and sex, HF as a time-dependent variable was strongly associated with mortality (hazard ratio =3.31, 95% confidence interval: 2.93–3.75), particularly from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio =4.20, 95% confidence interval: 3.50–5.03). Further adjustment for MI severity and comorbidity, acute treatment, and recurrent MI moderately attenuated these associations (hazard ratio =2.49 and 2.94 for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively). Mortality did not differ by ejection fraction, but was higher for delayed- versus early-onset HF (P for heterogeneity =0.002). The age- and sex-adjusted 5-year survival estimates in 2001 to 2010 versus 1990 to 2000 were 82% and 81% among HF-free and 61% and 54% among HF patients, respectively (P for heterogeneity of trends =0.05). Conclusions—HF markedly increases the risk of death after MI. This excess risk is similar regardless of ejection fraction but greater for delayed- versus early-onset HF. Mortality after MI declined over time, primarily as a result of improved HF survival.

Social and behavioural factors associated with frailty trajectories in a population-based cohort of older adults

Objective The goal of this study was to identify distinct frailty trajectories (clusters of individuals following a similar progression of frailty over time) in an ageing population and to determine social and behavioural factors associated with frailty trajectories. Design Population-based cohort study. Setting Olmsted County, Minnesota. Participants Olmsted County, Minnesota residents aged 60–89 in 2005. Primary outcome measure Changes in frailty over an 8-year period from 2005 to 2012, measured by constructing a yearly frailty index. Frailty trajectories by decade of age were determined using k-means cluster modelling for longitudinal data. Results After adjustment for age and sex, all social and behavioural factors (education, marital status, living arrangements, smoking status and alcohol use) were significantly associated with frailty trajectories in those aged 60–69 and 70–79 years. After further adjustment for baseline frailty, the likelihood of being in the high frailty trajectory was greatest among those reporting concerns from relatives/friends about alcohol consumption (OR (95% CI) 2.26 (1.19 to 4.29)) and those with less than a high school education (OR (95% CI) 1.98 (1.32 to 2.96)) in the 60–69 year olds. In the 70–79 year olds, the largest associations were observed among those with concerns from oneself about alcohol consumption (OR (95% CI) 1.92 (1.23 to 3.00)), those with less than a high school education (OR (95% CI) 1.57 (1.12 to 2.22)), and those living with family (vs spouse; OR (95% CI) 1.76 (1.05 to 2.94)). No factors remained associated with frailty trajectories in the 80–89 year olds after adjustment for baseline frailty. Conclusions Social and behavioural factors are associated with frailty, with stronger associations observed in younger ages. Recognition of social and behavioural factors associated with increasing frailty may inform interventions for individuals at risk of worsening frailty, specifically when targeted at younger individuals.

Prognostic Value of Soluble ST2 After Myocardial Infarction: A Community Perspective

BACKGROUND Soluble ST2 (sST2) is a marker of cardiac mechanical strain hypothesized to adversely impact short-term prognosis after myocardial infarction. We examined the association of sST2 with longer-term outcomes after myocardial infarction in a geographically defined community. METHODS Olmsted County, Minnesota residents who experienced an incident (first-ever) myocardial infarction between November 1, 2002 and December 31, 2012 were prospectively enrolled; sST2 levels were measured. Patients were followed for heart failure and death. RESULTS We studied 1401 patients with incident myocardial infarction (mean age 67 years; 61% men; 79% non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction). Median sST2 (ng/mL) was 48.7 (25th-75th percentile 32.5-103.3). Soluble ST2 was elevated in 51% of patients. Higher values of sST2 were associated with increased age, female sex, and comorbidities. During 5 years of follow-up, 388 persons died and 360 developed heart failure. After adjustment for age, sex, comorbidities, Killip class, and troponin T, the hazard ratios for death were 1.73 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22-2.45) and 3.57 (95% CI, 2.57-4.96) for sST2 tertiles 2 and 3, respectively (Ptrend <.001). For heart failure, the hazard ratios were 1.67 (95% CI, 1.18-2.37) and 2.88 (95% CI, 2.05-4.05), respectively (Ptrend <.001). Results were similar among 30-day survivors. CONCLUSIONS In the community, sST2 elevation is present in half of myocardial infarctions. Higher values of sST2 are associated with a large excess risk of death and heart failure independently of other prognostic indicators. Measurement of sST2 should be considered for risk stratification after myocardial infarction.