Sheilla Nyasha

Do banks and stock markets spur economic growth? Kenya's experience

This paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between bank-based financial development, stock market development, and economic growth in Kenya - during the period from 1980 to 2012. In order to address the problem of omitted variable bias, the study includes savings and investment as control variables - thereby creating a multivariate Granger-causality model. The method of means-removed average is employed to construct a bank-based financial development index and a stock market development index. Using the newly developed ARDL-bounds testing approach, the empirical results of this study reveal that there is a distinct unidirectional Granger-causal flow from economic growth to bank-based financial development in Kenya. This causal flow applies irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short run or in the long run. The study, however, fails to find any causal relationship between market-based financial development and economic growth, and between bank-based financial development and market-based financial development in Kenya. The study, therefore, concludes that the development of the Kenyan banking sector is largely driven by the countrys real sector.

Banks, stock market development and economic growth in Kenya: an empirical investigation

ABSTRACT In this paper, we have examined the impact of both bank- and market-based financial development on economic growth in Kenya during the period 1980 to 2012, using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. To capture as far as possible the breadth and depth of the Kenyan bank- and market-based financial systems, the study employs the method of means-removed average to construct both bank- and market-based financial development indices from an array of banking sector and stock market variables. The empirical results of this study show that market-based financial development has a positive impact on economic growth in Kenya. However, the results have also shown that bank-based financial development has no impact on economic growth in the study country. These results apply irrespective of whether the regression analysis is conducted in the long run or in the short run. The findings of this study, therefore, lend more support to pro-market-based financial development policies in Kenya.

Banks, stock market development and economic growth in South Africa: a multivariate causal linkage

This article investigates the dynamic causal relationship between bank-based financial development, stock market development and economic growth in South Africa – during the period 1980–2012. The study includes savings and investment as intermittent variables – thereby creating a multivariate Granger-causality model. Using the newly developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach, the empirical results of this study reveal that there is a distinct short- and long-run unidirectional causal flow from stock market development to economic growth in South Africa. The results also indicate that there is a unidirectional causal flow from bank-based financial development to stock market development in the short run. The study, however, fails to find any causality between bank-based financial development and economic growth. The study, therefore, concludes that the development of the real sector in South Africa is largely driven by stock market development.

Bank-based financial development and economic growth: A review of international literature

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper was to survey the existing literature on the causal relationship between bank-based financial development and economic growth, highlighting the theoretical and empirical evidence from recent work. Although some previous studies have attempted to conduct a survey of the existing research on the finance-growth nexus, the majority of these studies have failed to distinguish between bank-based and market-based financial developments. To our knowledge, this may be the first study of its kind to survey the existing research on the causal relationship between bank-based financial development and economic growth – in both developed and developing countries. Design/methodology/approach - – Overall, our study shows that most of the literature reviewed in this paper either supports bidirectional causality between bank-based financial development and economic growth or reinforces the conventional supply-leading response phenomenon. Notwithstanding this outcome, the study also finds the literature in favour of a demand-following response to be increasing – in both number and substance – especially in recent years. Findings - – The paper, therefore, concludes that the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is not clear-cut and that the notion that financial development automatically leads to economic growth is merely based on Originality/value - – Although some previous studies have attempted to conduct a survey of the existing research on the finance-growth nexus, the majority of these studies have failed to distinguish between bank-based and market-based financial developments. To our knowledge, this may be the first study of its kind to survey the existing research on the causal relationship between bank-based financial development and economic growth – in both developed and developing countries.

Finance-Growth Nexus Revisited: Empirical Evidence from Six Countries

Abstract This paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between bank-based financial development and economic growth, and between market-based financial development and economic growth in six countries during the period from 1980 to 2012. The causal relationship was found to vary largely across countries and over time. In general, bank-based financial development seems to Granger-cause economic growth in the UK and only in the long run in Australia. However, there is a feedback loop in Brazil and Australia, but only in the short run for the latter. In Kenya, South Africa and USA, the results support the neutrality hypothesis. The study results further indicate short-run unidirectional causality from market-based financial development to economic growth in the USA. Evidence of the feedback loop was found in Kenya, while the demand-following hypothesis found support only in South Africa and Brazil. However, the neutrality view was supported in Australia and the UK.

Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: A Revisionist Approach

In this piece, we highlight some of the salient issues and controversies surrounding the relationship between financial development and economic growth, from both the theoretical and the empirical fronts. We first discuss the controversies on the role of financial development in economic growth; and we then proceed to review the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. We conclude that the relationship between financial development and economic growth is highly complex, and is dependent on a number of factors. Hence, the argument that financial development always leads to economic growth should be taken with extreme caution.

BANK VERSUS STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN BRAZIL: AN ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH

Abstract This paper examines the impact of both bank-based and market-based financial development on economic growth in Brazil during the period from 1980 to 2012. To incorporate all of the aspects of financial development into the regression analysis, the study employs a method of means-removed average to construct both bank-based and market-based financial development indices. Based on the ARDL approach, the empirical results show that there is a positive relationship between market-based financial development and economic growth in Brazil in the long run, but not in the short run. The results also show that bank-based financial development in Brazil does not have a positive effect on economic growth. This applies irrespective of whether the regression analysis is conducted in the short run, or in the long run. The study, therefore, concludes that it is the stock market, rather than banking sector development, that drives long-run economic growth in Brazil.

Are banks and stock markets complements or substitutes? Empirical evidence from three countries

This paper has tested whether bank-based financial development and market-based financial development are complements of, or substitutes for, one another in enhancing economic growth in the USA, Brazil and Kenya during the period from 1980 to 2012. These three countries represent a modest cross-section of the general financial structure prevalent in many developed and developing countries. Unlike some of the previous studies, the study employs the newly developed ardl-Bounds-testing approach to carry out the test. The study also employs the method of means-removed average to construct both bank-based and market-based financial development indices. The results of this study show that while in the USA and Brazil, bank-based and market-based financial systems complement each other in enhancing economic growth; in Kenya, the two financial systems seem to be substitutes rather than complements.

Poverty and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: A Multivariate Causal Linkage

ABSTRACT:The relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction has long been researched in numerous studies around the world; yet, the results are far from being conclusive. Although it is now widely recognised that economic growth is good for poverty reduction through the trickle-down effect, alternative views still exist. This paper, therefore, investigates the dynamic causal linkage between poverty reduction and economic growth in Ethiopia during the period from 1970 to 2014. To address the omission of variable bias, the study includes financial development and investment as intermittent variables – thereby creating a multivariate Granger-causality model. The study uses two proxies to measure the level of poverty in Ethiopia, namely: household consumption expenditure and the infant mortality rate. The study further uses the newly developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and the ECM-based Granger-causality test to examine this linkage. The study finds that there is a short-run bi-directional causality between economic growth and poverty reduction – irrespective of which variable is used as a proxy for poverty reduction. However, in the long run, the study finds unidirectional causality from economic growth to poverty reduction (proxied by infant mortality rate); but it fails to find any causal relationship between household consumption expenditure and economic growth. The study, therefore, concludes that while poverty reduction and economic growth are mutually beneficial in the short run; in the long run, it is economic growth that leads to poverty reduction when the infant mortality rate is used as a proxy for poverty reduction. The study recommends that policy makers in Ethiopia should pursue both pro-poor policies and pro-economic-growth strategies in the short run; since poverty reduction and economic growth have been found to have a mutual causal relationship in the short run. It is further recommended that such policies should be complementary and mutually reinforcing. If the economic growth and poverty reduction policies are well crafted and co-ordinated; in the short run, a reduction in poverty could lead to an increase in economic growth – in a way that reinforces further reduction in poverty and inequality and benefits the population at large, while promoting higher economic growth in turn. However, in the long run, pro-growth policies should be prioritised; since economic growth has been found to Granger-cause poverty reduction in the long run. This would ensure that poverty in all its forms is reduced as far as is possible.

The impact of bank-based and market-based financial development on economic growth: time-series evidence from the United Kingdom

Abstract This paper examines the dynamic impact of both bank-based and market-based financial development on economic growth in the United Kingdom (UK) during the period 1980–2012, using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. Given the complexity of the financial structure in the United Kingdom, various financial development indicators have been used to construct bank-based and market-based financial development indices. The empirical results of this study show that while market-based financial development has a positive impact on economic growth in the United Kingdom, bank-based financial development has a distinct negative impact. These results apply irrespective of whether the regression analysis is conducted in the long run or in the short run.