Shigui Ruan

A delay-differential equation model of HIV infection of CD4(+) T-cells.

A.S. Perelson, D.E. Kirschner and R. De Boer (Math. Biosci. 114 (1993) 81) proposed an ODE model of cell-free viral spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in a well-mixed compartment such as the bloodstream. Their model consists of four components: uninfected healthy CD4(+) T-cells, latently infected CD4(+) T-cells, actively infected CD4(+) T-cells, and free virus. This model has been important in the field of mathematical modeling of HIV infection and many other models have been proposed which take the model of Perelson, Kirschner and De Boer as their inspiration, so to speak (see a recent survey paper by A.S. Perelson and P.W. Nelson (SIAM Rev. 41 (1999) 3-44)). We first simplify their model into one consisting of only three components: the healthy CD4(+) T-cells, infected CD4(+) T-cells, and free virus and discuss the existence and stability of the infected steady state. Then, we introduce a discrete time delay to the model to describe the time between infection of a CD4(+) T-cell and the emission of viral particles on a cellular level (see A.V.M. Herz, S. Bonhoeffer, R.M. Anderson, R.M. May, M.A. Nowak [Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 93 (1996) 7247]). We study the effect of the time delay on the stability of the endemically infected equilibrium, criteria are given to ensure that the infected equilibrium is asymptotically stable for all delay. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.

Stability and bifurcation in a neural network model with two delays

Abstract A simple neural network model with two delays is considered. Linear stability of the model is investigated by analyzing the associated characteristic transcendental equation. For the case without self-connection, it is found that the Hopf bifurcation occurs when the sum of the two delays varies and passes a sequence of critical values. The stability and direction of the Hopf bifurcation are determined by applying the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. An example is given and numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the obtained results.

Dynamical behavior of an epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate

Abstract In this paper, we study the global dynamics of an epidemic model with vital dynamics and nonlinear incidence rate of saturated mass action. By carrying out global qualitative and bifurcation analyses, it is shown that either the number of infective individuals tends to zero as time evolves or there is a region such that the disease will be persistent if the initial position lies in the region and the disease will disappear if the initial position lies outside this region. When such a region exists, it is shown that the model undergoes a Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation, i.e., it exhibits a saddle–node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcations, and a homoclinic bifurcation. Existence of none, one or two limit cycles is also discussed.

GLOBAL ANALYSIS IN A PREDATOR-PREY SYSTEM WITH NONMONOTONIC FUNCTIONAL RESPONSE ∗

A predator-prey system with nonmonotonic functional response is considered. Global qualitative and bifurcation analyses are combined to determine the global dynamics of the model. The bifurcation a...

Global analysis of an epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate

Abstract In this paper we study an epidemic model with nonmonotonic incidence rate, which describes the psychological effect of certain serious diseases on the community when the number of infectives is getting larger. By carrying out a global analysis of the model and studying the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium, we show that either the number of infective individuals tends to zero as time evolves or the disease persists.

Uniform persistence and flows near a closed positively invariant set

In this paper, the behavior of a continuous flow in the vicinity of a closed positively invariant subset in a metric space is investigated. The main theorem in this part in some sense generalizes previous results concerning classification of the flow near a compact invariant set in a locally compact metric space which was described by Ura-Kimura (1960) and Bhatia (1969). By applying the obtained main theorem, we are able to prove two persistence theorems. In the first one, several equivalent statements are established, which unify and generalize earlier results based on Liapunov-like functions and those about the equivalence of weak uniform persistence and uniform persistence. The second theorem generalizes the classical uniform persistence theorems based on analysis of the flow on the boundary by relaxing point dissipativity and invariance of the boundary. Several examples are given which show that our theorems will apply to a wider varity of ecological models.

Modeling the Invasion of Community-Acquired Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus into Hospitals

BACKGROUND Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has traditionally been associated with infections in hospitals. Recently, a new strain of MRSA has emerged and rapidly spread in the community, causing serious infections among young, healthy individuals. Preliminary reports imply that a particular clone (USA300) of a community-acquired MRSA (CA-MRSA) strain is infiltrating hospitals and replacing the traditional hospital-acquired MRSA strains. If true, this event would have serious consequences, because CA-MRSA infections in hospitals would occur among a more debilitated, older patient population. METHODS A deterministic mathematical model was developed to characterize the factors contributing to the replacement of hospital-acquired MRSA with CA-MRSA and to quantify the effectiveness of interventions aimed at limiting the spread of CA-MRSA in health care settings. RESULTS The model strongly suggests that CA-MRSA will become the dominant MRSA strain in hospitals and health care facilities. This reversal of dominant strain will occur as a result of the documented expanding community reservoir and increasing influx into the hospital of individuals who harbor CA-MRSA. Competitive exclusion of hospital-acquired MRSA by CA-MRSA will occur, with increased severity of CA-MRSA infections resulting in longer hospitalizations and a larger in-hospital reservoir of CA-MRSA. CONCLUSIONS Improving compliance with hand hygiene and screening for and decolonization of CA-MRSA carriers are effective strategies. However, hand hygiene has the greatest return of benefits and, if compliance is optimized, other strategies may have minimal added benefit.

Existence of travelling wave solutions in delayed reaction-diffusion systems with applications to diffusion-competition systems

This paper is concerned with the existence of travelling wave solutions in a class of delayed reaction-diffusion systems without monotonicity, which concludes two-species diffusion-competition models with delays. Previous methods do not apply in solving these problems because the reaction terms do not satisfy either the so-called quasimonotonicity condition or non-quasimonotonicity condition. By using Schauders fixed point theorem, a new cross-iteration scheme is given to establish the existence of travelling wave solutions. More precisely, by using such a new cross-iteration, we reduce the existence of travelling wave solutions to the existence of an admissible pair of upper and lower solutions which are easy to construct in practice. To illustrate our main results, we study the existence of travelling wave solutions in two delayed two-species diffusion-competition systems.

Modelling strategies for controlling SARS outbreaks

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a new, highly contagious, viral disease, emerged in China late in 2002 and quickly spread to 32 countries and regions causing in excess of 774 deaths and 8098 infections worldwide. In the absence of a rapid diagnostic test, therapy or vaccine, isolation of individuals diagnosed with SARS and quarantine of individuals feared exposed to SARS virus were used to control the spread of infection. We examine mathematically the impact of isolation and quarantine on the control of SARS during the outbreaks in Toronto, Hong Kong, Singapore and Beijing using a deterministic model that closely mimics the data for cumulative infected cases and SARS–related deaths in the first three regions but not in Beijing until mid–April, when China started to report data more accurately. The results reveal that achieving a reduction in the contact rate between susceptible and diseased individuals by isolating the latter is a critically important strategy that can control SARS outbreaks with or without quarantine. An optimal isolation programme entails timely implementation under stringent hygienic precautions defined by a critical threshold value. Values below this threshold lead to control, but those above are associated with the incidence of new community outbreaks or nosocomial infections, a known cause for the spread of SARS in each region. Allocation of resources to implement optimal isolation is more effective than to implement sub–optimal isolation and quarantine together. A community–wide eradication of SARS is feasible if optimal isolation is combined with a highly effective screening programme at the points of entry.

Simulating the SARS outbreak in Beijing with limited data

Abstract We propose a mathematical model to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. The model consists of six subpopulations, namely susceptible, exposed, quarantined, suspect, probable and removed, as China started to report SARS cases as suspect and probable separately from April 27 and cases transferred from suspect class to probable class from May 2. By simplifying the model to a two-compartment suspect-probable model and a single-compartment probable model and using limited data, we are able to simulate the SARS outbreak in Beijing. We estimate that the reproduction number varies from 1.0698 to 3.2524 and obtain certain important epidemiological parameters.